[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by skytrekker

I suggest you see the Union of Concerned Scientists website, which has much about the environment, including global warming. They have an excellent section called 'shifting climates- they have two scenarios that see a future will smaller increases in C02, and accelerated levels.

It gives a scenario by the year 2077 and after of what the tri- state region by that year will resemble with accelerated levels of C02 of this region having temperatures and a climate similar to Coastal South Carolin over a 65 year period, therefore my one mile a year increase north of zone 7 from coastal CT is very conservative indeed. If in fact this is what is happening, you have good reason to be scared- as do the rest of us.

A group from the Union of Concerned recently where asked to testify in front of Congress- I would assume their standards for empirical testing are valid, and they try and remain objective of politics. They disagree with you, on your assertions that C02 is not the primary cause of warming- as does the IPCC. The IPCC states that human induced warming has a 95% probability I believe.

As far as Mr. Hansen- who claims he was 'muzzled' by the Bush administration regarding climate change. I do not know if his scientific integrity has been compromised, that remains to be seen, however he feels at this point we have reached the point of no return regarding C02 emissions (actually he has said the year 2012).

Also many scientists say that the Arctic ocean could be ice free this summer, the first time in recorded history.

See Climate Choices in the Northeast
Dramatically Changing Climates: New York Tri-State Region

The second link makes my extrapolation of 1 mile year not only possible, but highly probable, and sadly to say is perhaps represents too little of a drift north of the Z7 line. My estimate of just 1 mile per year north would see a zone 7 climate extend across the Hartford area by the year 2038- starting with the current Z7 at New Haven Harbor, shifting 1 mile year year-30 miles to the north the southern suburbs of Hartford, an easy scenario if the Union of Concerned Scientists theories are realized. By the year 2077, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists central CT could shift from a zone 6/7 to zone 8/9, very easily. Considering that from here in Vernon we have not had a below zero reading for several winters, I consider myself to be a borderline zone 6/7 already. It seems 1.5 miles per year is more probable if their scenario is correct.

If these prospects do occur, you are right- we have much to be worried about by the year 2100- as Dr. Hansen has said.
If you are indeed a research scientist knowledgeable about this subject, you tend to have a very conservative view (not politically) on the latest information regarding climate change, which of course is totally acceptable, unfortunately many climate scientists have also been very conservative- it was just a few years ago they did not see an arctic ocean free of ice till 2040- now many are waiting to see if it happens this year. Thus far they have vastly underestimated the amount of warming taking place, especially at the higher latitudes.


Even with the lowest increase in average yearly temperture of 2-3 degrees by the year 2050-2075- by the most conservative scientific estimates my 1 mile creep north is highly probable.

Additionally the Arbor Foundation site is excellent information. The updated zones where initially made for the USDA- currently the USDA is updating their own maps for the USA Alaska and HI - I have no idea when their new Zone information will be released- it will likely mirror the Arbor changes.

My two windmill palms are thriving- the question is this- could these palms have survived in my location 40 years ago? The evidence can be obtained by finding out the number of days where the temperture drops and stays at a low level killing these palms. Remember they are rated from a zone 7 and up, damage from cold does occur with these plants in the winter here- they are theoretically not hardy in my location.

I grow in the ground Trachycarpus fortunei & Trachycarpus Wagnerianus (stiff leafed variety)
Trachycarpus - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
hardiestpalms.com :: Trachycarpus fortunei
PACSOA - Trachycarpus

Sky,

I am aware of organizations like the Union of Concerned Scientists, - although I had not seen their web page in a year or so. Nice graphics! In fact, a friend often interacts with Gus Speth (Dean School of Forestry/Environmental Studies at Yale), and I have talked with him on a few occasions. Speth has contributed some research material to them over the years. To be sure - they are one of the most well respected organizations, with dedicated and environmentally caring people. They have made an attempt to bring the most important parties together where the government is failing. It’s a great empowerment when the “people” take control of the big issues. I fully respect the work they do.

My concern is mostly with how they come up with the projected results. There are several things you should keep in mind when looking at information they and other organizations forecast and generate. The series and projections in “Dramatically Changing Climates” are extrapolated computer projection scenarios of future CO2 induced climate change. In the short explanation…. they take trending data…feed it into a climate-modeling computer …and computers produce extrapolated increased CO2 scenarios for climate change. The result of these extrapolations is only as good as……the MODEL and the DATA. Just tiny changes in either - can produce huge differences in output. A did a small amount of graduate work on climate model outputs (for another reason, though). So I know a little.

Take temperature data sampling. Some climate computer models have a standard deviation for changes in temperature sampling before 1980. Many do not. From 1980 or so on – global temperature measurements (for use in the science community) were done by shape and shading algorithms applied to LANDSAT and GOES satellite images. Before 1980 - temperature measurements were a bit primitive (NOAA instrument shelters, the US navy weather balloon lunches…etc). Because of the more primitive and less accurate collection methods, there is a bias for cooler temps in the data before 1980. In short - temperatures may have been a bit warmer than the data showed before 1980. When all of this data is fed into future climate models the output can be affected.

My point (and many other people who study long-term climate would agree) – there needs to be a longer data set fed into computer models for extrapolations to have a very high degree of accuracy. Again I’m not an upper-air person, so can’t intelligently comment on the aspects of sampling errors, but the big difference between Hanson and most other models (I think) was he used a totally uniform data set. Which normally (and operational in climate models) produces a better result. Again this is not to even remotely dismiss anything that the organizations like the UCC produces.

I do agree that you would have to be blind (with your head in the sand) to not see that the zones have migrated. Palm trees for example from before 1860 (Civil War) only grew well, if at all, in the low country of South Carolina, now any trip down south shows they have reached Virginia Beach, VA. I did some research on bamboo, while it did grow and survive in the Tri-State region before 1900 – it would burn and beige here in Connecticut in a typical winter. You have see my grove, it looks the same in February as August. Look at what’s going on with the alligators in the lower Potomac. Back Bay National Wildlife refuge was the furthest north alligators were known be in any numbers - now areas in Maryland near Windmill Point have dens of alligators being reported. Last year someone found a few baby gators in the Cohansey Cove in New Jersey.

The zones are moving. It sure felt like Savannah out there today (it was 90 F again). You’ll get no argument from me there!

Cheers.

[skytrekker]

The Union of Concerned Scientists I feel offer a more then fair and objective view of climate change. As in any scientific endeavor there is room for error and revision- data is constantly being collected and reevaluated.

However I feel my 1 mile a year north in climatic growing zones is fair, with the current data collected over the last 20 years- Even with the most conservative interpretation it is fairly easy to say that by 2040 Hartford will be a zone 7.

Your posts are always informative and helpful.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by skytrekker

The Union of Concerned Scientists I feel offer a more then fair and objective view of climate change. As in any scientific endeavor there is room for error and revision- data is constantly being collected and reevaluated.

However I feel my 1 mile a year north in climatic growing zones is fair, with the current data collected over the last 20 years- Even with the most conservative interpretation it is fairly easy to say that by 2040 Hartford will be a zone 7.

Your posts are always informative and helpful.

Absolutely.


Hartford now is only 30 miles from a solid zone 7. In my opinion - …and I’ know all snow-people are going to scream at me as soon I post this………... but it will not take anywhere near 2040 for zone 7 to “average out “in the Hartford area - not at this current rate. In terms of global climate zones temps - 30 miles for mean temp to just “average out” is a speck. If this keeps up…and we are not totally sure why (again I’m slowly, slowly moving into the CO2 camp…slowly cautiously) it won’t take that long at this rate.

I know I can dribble on …..so I’ll spear you ……..but you would be so shocked how much synoptically - as of late - it takes just to get a 10 F air temp into Hartford, CT.

The big question will this warming keep on going (at this rate)?

[skytrekker]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Absolutely.


Hartford now is only 30 miles from a solid zone 7. In my opinion - …and I’ know all snow-people are going to scream at me as soon I post this………... but it will not take anywhere near 2040 for zone 7 to “average out “in the Hartford area - not at this current rate. In terms of global climate zones temps - 30 miles for mean temp to just “average out” is a speck. If this keeps up…and we are not totally sure why (again I’m slowly, slowly moving into the CO2 camp…slowly cautiously) it won’t take that long at this rate.

I know I can dribble on …..so I’ll spear you ……..but you would be so shocked how much synoptically - as of late - it takes just to get a 10 F air temp into Hartford, CT.

The big question will this warming keep on going (at this rate)?

Wave, I think the question you are asking; when will we get a 10 F again in Hartford?- how often does that now happen compared to 30 years ago>>? I would say not more then once a winter these days.

From all indications the warming is happening faster then those finger in the wind boys "Climate Scientists' have projected. As a gardener I pay close attention to this- there are many plants now able to grow in coastal CT that are easily considered sub tropical- and also many growing inland now that 30 years ago that would have not made it.

From some stuff I have read- warming will become more pronounced after 2011- thus far it is certainly apparent to meteorologists, and climatologists. However currently the general public sees these heat waves as a nuisance causing discomfort, then more of an ominous future with increasing warming and bizarre weather. The floods in the Midwest however may be another matter.When the warming in the summer becomes more extreme and lengthy, and winters progressively become milder and less snow then in the past- and when climatic anomalies increase, it will become more difficult to ignore. Then will the Public, Government and the powers may be begin to realize we have real and serious problems- and that time may be even closer then I hate to admit. By the time it is recognized we have a real and dangerous group of climatic problems- it will be too late- it probably already is to change or even slow what has happened.

See Global Warming and Bad Weather | Newsweek Global Literacy | Newsweek.com

those climatic anomalies I spoke of above- increasing.....

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Absolutely.


Hartford now is only 30 miles from a solid zone 7. In my opinion - …and I’ know all snow-people are going to scream at me as soon I post this………... but it will not take anywhere near 2040 for zone 7 to “average out “in the Hartford area - not at this current rate. In terms of global climate zones temps - 30 miles for mean temp to just “average out” is a speck. If this keeps up…and we are not totally sure why (again I’m slowly, slowly moving into the CO2 camp…slowly cautiously) it won’t take that long at this rate.

I know I can dribble on …..so I’ll spear you ……..but you would be so shocked how much synoptically - as of late - it takes just to get a 10 F air temp into Hartford, CT.

The big question will this warming keep on going (at this rate)?

I also think that the urban heat island is also underestimated in the climate change models. However, many airports are located in slightly less dense areas with a lower population density.
What is always amazing to me is that an area like NH which is not horribly far from CT has a climate that is so much colder. I think areas like Concord could stay at a zone 5 or will that last?

[skytrekker]

Plains

Concord in years to come will slowly shift from a zone 5 to 6 by between 2010 & 2030- JMO. Wave will probably agree. At my location NE of Hartford away from the heat Island we are now a borderline 6/7- Hartford has not had a temperature below zero in years.

Dramtically Changing Climates: New Hampshire
Extreme Heat in Our Cities: Concord

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by skytrekker

Plains

Concord in years to come will slowly shift from a zone 5 to 6 by between 2010 & 2030- JMO. Wave will probably agree. At my location NE of Hartford away from the heat Island we are now a borderline 6/7- Hartford has not had a temperature below zero in years.

Dramtically Changing Climates: New Hampshire
Extreme Heat in Our Cities: Concord

I believe the coldest Concord got this past winter was -13F. In northern NH two winters ago it was well below -30F at the Whitefield and Berlin weather stations in Coos County.

[skytrekker]

Plains-- a zone 6 will have a minimum temperture of -10--- a zone 5 -20

Whats really interesting for Hartford in 2008- the lowest temperture was 6.1 degrees on January 3rd, followed by 10 degrees February 11th- that makes Hartford thus far this year a zone 7/8!

Zone 7 lowest temp 0-10 degrees
Zone 8 10-20 degrees

At -13 you are still a zone 5.

Take a look at the Arbor updated Zones
Hardiness Zone Changes at arborday.org

Concord is still a zone 5 - My location is still a zone 6- However the temperature here has not fallen below zero over the last 5 years- The zone 7 line is 30 miles to the south now.

Northern NH is mostly zone 4 (-30) with a few isolated spots of zone 3.

[rajmelk]

Originally Posted by skytrekker

Plains

Concord in years to come will slowly shift from a zone 5 to 6 by between 2010 & 2030- JMO. Wave will probably agree. At my location NE of Hartford away from the heat Island we are now a borderline 6/7- Hartford has not had a temperature below zero in years.

Dramtically Changing Climates: New Hampshire
Extreme Heat in Our Cities: Concord

I believe Bradley recorded a low of -3 F back in January per the NWS.

[skytrekker]

That was Bradley-not Hartford- the hourly weather stats show no temperture below zero in a 24 hour period thus far in 2008. Official records are kept at Bradley- but I am not interested in official stations but exact geographic locations.


The lowest temp at Hartford was January 3rd between 6:53 and 7:53 am which was 6.1 degrees. Granted Hartford is a heat Island-but Hartford thus far this year has been a zone 7.

The weather records for January 3rd from Hartford

Connecticut Weather - The latest weather from courant.com and The Hartford Courant

Feb 11 10 degrees 5:53-6:53AM
Connecticut Weather - The latest weather from courant.com and The Hartford Courant