time to leave ct (Hartford, Manchester: real estate, foreclosures, travel)

[skytrekker]

No Salatheel

The one good thing about CT is we have not overbuilt here- for housing or Condo's-like in the 80s

In NC there is in fact rampant overbuilding- and loose lending practices- with a high amount of foreclosures- lets try and write information that is correct-

Incomes in Connecticut can support housing prices- they cannot support them in NC-
NC in fact is going to have a much more painful correction in housing then CT.

And if your assertion that It is already happening. Jobs and population increase=real estate appreciation.
Then why are two 'hot job' growth areas with growing populations like Florida and AZ suffering a housing bust?

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by skytrekker

No Salatheel

The one good thing about CT is we have not overbuilt here- for housing or Condo's-like in the 80s

In NC there is in fact rampant overbuilding- and loose lending practices- with a high amount of foreclosures- lets try and write information that is correct-

Incomes in Connecticut can support housing prices- they cannot support them in NC-
NC in fact is going to have a much more painful correction in housing then CT.

And if your assertion that It is already happening. Jobs and population increase=real estate appreciation.
Then why are two 'hot job' growth areas with growing populations like Florida and AZ suffering a housing bust?

No major housing bust out here in Phoenix. Prices have dropped maybe 10% on average but that's off of 50-60% gains in the past two years. Some areas are up over last year by more than 10% - the most expensive ones. Sales are slow and it may still all come crashing down, but unless the US swan dives into a big recession, 200000+ new residents a year will relatively quickly absorb the oversupply and things will get back to normal. For now, the economy is strong and jobs are plentiful. The big builders are already starting back to carving out developments in the fields and deserts after being idle for several months.

[skytrekker]

Ponderosa

I read the housing blogs -I know what is going on in Phoenix- you have over 50K homes for sale- there are empty neighborhoods of tract homes.

The epicenter of this housing bust is in fact in AZ, NV and Florida- considering that as much as 50% of the jobs created in AZ since 2002 have been related to housing-see that housing information today?-not good. Without all those Californians moving in- whats next- the flippers are GONE- all those houses for sale now- many are screwed in Phoenix and Tucson- where housing prices are considered 30-40% over valued for local conditions- how many belly up builders in AZ now?

A Phoenix housing bust: now whole subdivisions are in bankruptcy auction. AZ ranks among the rates of foreclosure in the nation.
http://blogs.business2.com/realestate/2006/11/a_phoenix_housi.html (broken link)

Phoenix Inventory- We’ve Hit a New Record! http://housingdoom.com/2007/03/16/ph...-a-new-record/
By twist

According to the reports issued by ARMLS, Phoenix home inventory hit its peak last September, when the "end-of-month" inventory stood at 48,443. Thanks to one of our favorite sources [who, like the rest of Doom’s "family," really needs a letter as a handle- so thank you "M!"] for this update:

As of 5:18 pm, March 16, 2007 inventory for the Phoenix metro area stood at 48,448. This exceeds the old record by five.

Inventory typically increases this time of year. There is nothing to indicate that inventory will not continue on it’s upward path for the near future. Anyone care to venture a guess as to when we will break 50,000?


After Arizona's Housing Boom, 'For Sale' Is a Sign of the Times -NY TIMES
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...gewanted=print

present information- not spin. And with all these '200,000' residents a year- I do hope they come up with a source of water-

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by skytrekker

Ponderosa

I read the housing blogs -I know what is going on in Phoenix- you have over 50K homes for sale- there are empty neighborhoods of tract homes.

The epicenter of this housing bust is in fact in AZ, NV and Florida- considering that as much as 50% of the jobs created in AZ since 2002 have been related to housing-see that housing information today?-not good. Without all those Californians moving in- whats next- the flippers are GONE- all those houses for sale now- many are screwed in Phoenix and Tucson- where housing prices are considered 30-40% over valued for local conditions- how many belly up builders in AZ now?

A Phoenix housing bust: now whole subdivisions are in bankruptcy auction. AZ ranks among the rates of foreclosure in the nation.
http://blogs.business2.com/realestate/2006/11/a_phoenix_housi.html (broken link)

After Arizona's Housing Boom, 'For Sale' Is a Sign of the Times -NY TIMES
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...gewanted=print

present information- not spin. And with all these '200,000' residents a year- I do hope they come up with a source of water-
Do you work in the REIC? And also why here- am I trolling the AZ forum?

AZ- Phoenix is a hell hole- mindless sprawl, one of the highest crime rates in the nation, along with Tucson. Bad traffic, bad air, poor educational system, bland culture- need I go on? And overpriced crappy housing.Case closed- go back to the AZ board.

You read the blogs? Now that's an authoritative source . I suggest R.L. Brown if you have any interest in the markets here.

I just happened to be looking around the various forums and saw your misinformed post regarding the AZ market and thoughtfully corrected it. Your subsequent post and edit is replete with factual errors and myths about AZ life and hydrogeology as well as being rude and antagonizing. But you're right, I don't have any business in CT and no interest in the place whatsoever, so I will just let that go and be on my way.

[skytrekker]

The housing inventory numbers can be found at the NAR site

at it is currently at 49000- that is a fact- ALso information in the mainstream media tends to lack information that is factual- but is spin.

First they said there was no housing bubble, then they said it would be a slight correction, then there would be a recovery this year- and oh yes 'prices have never fallen' except during the great depression. And they 'will not fall' this time. Spin spin and more spin.

Well the housing numbers today where ugly- seems like the mainstream media, and the wall street economists have been wrong all along.
So why should I believe you- since basically the most bearish on housing have been right- and the bulls and spinmeisters have been wrong.

The possibility of a recession is rising- and it seems those people at the blogs- who saw it coming- where more informed then the NAR - the wall street economists and the general media- who said a housing correction would 'never happen'- Even Bubble blower Alan Greenspan said that there was a chance the collapse of the sub prime market might spread and cause a recession- well what happens when many of these mortgages are 'reset' in the spring- its going to become worse in housing before it gets better.

[salatheel]

Actually your wrong Skytrekker, it's common knowledge what drives appreciation. Read on my friend.

Sunbelt Shines as Hottest Housing Region


When it comes to employment and population growth, two key factors that drive housing demand, the Sunbelt stands alone as the nation’s hottest region, according to analysts at NAHB’s Construction Forecast Conference.

While payroll employment is back to March 2001 pre-recession levels in 32 states, the five-year outlook appears brightest for the western states, said Jim Diffley, managing director of Global Insight's Regional Services Group.

“For the next five years, employment in the Sunbelt will grow much faster than in the Northeast or Midwest,” he said, noting that with the exception of Florida, the only states expected to register annual job growth above 2% will come from the western part of the country.

Manufacturing states in the upper Midwest, particularly Michigan and Ohio, are still feeling the impact of the 2001 recession, he said. “We don’t expect those jobs to come back for some time.”

Sounding a similar note, Bernard Markstein, NAHB’s director of forecasting, said that Nevada, Arizona and Florida posted the largest population gains in 2003-2004 and that the West and the Southeast attracted the greatest migration during the past three years.

“Housing demand is driven by population growth and employment and income growth,” said Markstein, who added that changes in home prices, a desire for a second home and replacement of existing housing stock also figure into the equation.

During the past year, he said that housing prices increased in every state across the nation. California and Nevada were the pace setters, posting an average home price appreciation rate of more than 20%, while Florida, Arizona and much of the Northeast registered gains of 10%-20%.

Markstein said that rising home prices actually spur many buyers to enter the housing market.

“For first-time buyers, there is a real incentive to jump into the market if they think that prices will go up,” he said, because it offers them a chance not only to become home owners but to also tap into rising equity. “Move-up buyers also view this as an investment. By getting a bigger house, it will appreciate over time. So, there is actually an incentive to buy as long as prices are increasing.”

And it appears that in the coming years, these new home buyers will be migrating in far greater numbers to the Sunbelt region.

Global Insight is projecting that the lion’s share of new population growth will occur in the South and West during the next 25 years. Diffley said the West will surge by 48.5%, followed closely by the South at 42.5%. Lagging behind are the Midwest at 14.6% and the Northeast at 5.9%.

“People follow jobs, and jobs follow people,” he said, pointing out that Las Vegas; Fayetteville, Ark; Orlando, Fla.; Boise City, Idaho; Riverside, Calif.; Phoenix; West Palm Beach, Fla.; and Austin and Raleigh, N.C. will be among the hottest job markets in the next five years.

“Fayetteville is home of Wal-Mart, Boise has wonderful amenities and a low cost of living, Southern California is booming and Austin and Raleigh are high-tech centers,” said Diffley.

Another wrinkle in demand for housing is the desire to own a second home. Markstein said that the states with the highest percentage of second homes (over 10%) are Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont.

Photos by Morris Semiatin

[skytrekker]

Salatheel

we are in the midst of a massive housing bust
see the news today? The regions fairing worse are the biggest boom areas
which includes- AZ NV FL NC and CA

At this point it seems futile continuing this flow- the US economy is slowing rapidly- being brought down by housing. The economy of the past 5 years has been predicated on; Liquidity (easy money/low interest rates) Debt and real estate-

With a credit crunch beginning now- because of the bad loans- lets hope these regions that have relied on real estate find another growth engine.

I would hate to be stuck in Florida, Arizona or Nevada with an upside down mortgage-

Everything you have said sounds like a sound bite from a chamber of commerce blurb- but again 'Quality of Life issues' you fail to answer.

And all the sunbelts states rank in the lower quarter for quality of life- in addition they also have the highest crime rates- important factors you continue to leave unanswered.

Housing is high in the northeast for may reasons. Culture, educational institutions, and demand- while population is not growing fast- the demand to live in one of the premier regions of the world will remain.

Read the post 'moving from CT to Raleigh' I would hardly think that a region that is so heavily into' barbecue and religion' will set a standard for culture, sophistication, and new thinking in the years to come- the cultural intangibles rule this out for NC- at least for the foreseeable future.


Also- next time try and write something on your own- the copy and paste stuff is pretty dreary and sounds like an advertisement.

I may also add I had a double major in college- Sociology and Geography- I know something about demographics, and location.
It is true the NE is the slowest growing part of the country- and this has been a trend for decades.
However the price of fast growth; urban crowding, crime, pollution, reduced quality of life, massive traffic problems (and in the SW- water issues)
All are serious dilemmas that will have to be addressed-

It seems that as more people crowd into these regions- they destroy the values and quality of life they came for in the first place.
I may also add- I have spoken to many Californians who love CT- and are moving here-I guess they do not want to pay 700K for a started home in a crack neighborhood in LA-

I like the peace and quiet of CT- the low crime rate- the high quality of life- and frankly in many of these areas- the crime, road rage, stress are something I care not too seek.

[NC man]

What has NC done to you man. Cultural intangibles rule this out for NC,Are you green every one is leaving the NORTH EAST. To be honest I dont care for every one moving to my state and driving up costs but the housing market is good here and is not in a down turn, also NC has some of the best higher education in the country like Duke, UNC, NCSU Wake Forest univ. Small people put down others because they want what they have. NC is the present boom state,sad but true. It has the Blueridge Mountains and also the finest coast line on the east coast as well as every thing in between.Its a huge State with lots of land and people who dont talk out the side of their necks. Lighten up man. And if you want the true info on NC just ask me Im a NC native here to help out.

[skytrekker]

I am not on the NC forum am I?
Then my question to you is this? Why are you here trolling this board?

[salatheel]

From what I have experienced the quality of life here in Ct. IS POOR!!!. All we do is work our butts off to pay taxes,electricity,and oil bills.Many of the people here are snobby,egotistical,elitist,and arrogant when compared to those down south and out west. There is no quality of life here for what we want and what we have experienced. Your in the Boonies out in Vernon and maybe that makes a big difference. This is what life is like from our experience in Fairfield and New HAven counties. My wife and I somewhat joke that we want to be "trailer trash". At least it will get us away from all the pushy people here. We want a laid back relaxed life. One in which we could have more time with the kids and our pets. We are not going to live in Raleigh. Probably in a town of under 5,000 within 45-50 minutes of Raleigh. I could care less about high society and culture. I would rather live on a small farm.