[wavehunter007]

Just a note to weather watchers ( and beach people – lol) in coastal Connecticut/Long Island/Rhode Island…the hurricane threat seems to be increasing along in the middle Atlantic States/ East Coast:

The Atlantic Ocean is warming rapidly under the hot and humid weather we have had in the past weeks. Additionally, the unusual position of the Bermuda High this year (north, but further east)…seems to be pushing warmer water faster (on its western side) along the Atlantic Coast. Normally, more of the warmer water would be drawn more out into mid-ocean, not this year however. This increases the hurricane threat along in the middle Atlantic States/ East Coast…since any hurricane that moves along the Atlantic Coast will have little cooler water to weaken it.

* As you can see by the current map……the Atlantic has now reached 72 F (22 C) right to the south shore of Long Island, NY (right now the Central Long Island Sound buoy off Connecticut… is reporting 72 F)...and 76 F (24 C) ocean waters have now reached southern New Jersey, while the Atlantic off Maryland and Virginia is 78 F.

* There is now a growing area of the Atlantic Ocean from Florida to North Carolina that has 84 –85 (28 C) ocean temperatures. For comparison with the West Coast…right now the Pacific off Oahu Island (Hawaii) is 81 F…the Pacific off Guam is 81.7 F and the Pacific off Santa Monica, CA (LA) is 68 F.



Since it’s only late July…the Atlantic will continue to warm until early September. Atlantic Ocean temps from Florida to North Carolina could reach 88 F or higher. I think we have a good chance of seeing 80 F Atlantic Ocean temps touch the south Jersey shore, while the Atlantic could reach 76 F right up to Long Island/Connecticut. The water is still fairly cool from Massachusetts northward right now however (sub 65 F).

It’s great for beach people…as the Atlantic surf in places like NJ are warmer than the Pacific off San Diego or LA, while places as close as Myrtle Beach, SC have warmer surf than Hawaii (lol). The down side…. is what happens if an area of disturbed weather east of the Bahamas gets organized and heads toward the United States.

For those who want to check now and then, here is the link :

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/c...natlanti.c.gif

[7 Wishes]

Uh, are you sure about that? This has actually been one of the COLDEST June/July periods in history. Using the NYC weather stations, even these last few hot humid days have technically (but only by a degree or two) been colder than normal (if you look you'll see in the news that NYC's Central Park has not had a single above normal July day yet this year, though I think that will change today....they did have 2 or 3 days that were exactly normal).

This sounds like global warming alarmism to me. I am quite the environmentalist otherwise, and I do think regardless changing the composition of the atmosphere is probably not something to mess with, but I get tired of hearing every weather anomoly (warm, cold, dry, wet) being caused by the greenhouse effect. Yes, it exists (Venus would not be warmer than Mercury if it were not for it's CO2 rich atmosphere), but it's somewhat exaggerated in the media.

I know you technically didn't say that (you said it's simply warmer than it was earlier this month and that's true), but I wanted to say it before I start hearing that this week we are having "global warming" back. All the sea temperatures you quoted are normal, if not still a bit cooler than normal.....it's the height of summer for Pete's sake and by now the water will be (at least in the Sound) around 70 or 72!

[andthentherewere3]

We swam in the ocean off N. Carolina a few weeks ago, the water was really nice and warm. Very comfortable. We went the same time last year, and the water didn't seem quite as warm then.

[JayCT]

Actually I heard on the news that the ocean water tempurature is the warmest in a number of years.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Uh, are you sure about that? This has actually been one of the COLDEST June/July periods in history. Using the NYC weather stations, even these last few hot humid days have technically (but only by a degree or two) been colder than normal (if you look you'll see in the news that NYC's Central Park has not had a single above normal July day yet this year, though I think that will change today....they did have 2 or 3 days that were exactly normal).

This sounds like global warming alarmism to me. I am quite the environmentalist otherwise, and I do think regardless changing the composition of the atmosphere is probably not something to mess with, but I get tired of hearing every weather anomoly (warm, cold, dry, wet) being caused by the greenhouse effect. Yes, it exists (Venus would not be warmer than Mercury if it were not for it's CO2 rich atmosphere), but it's somewhat exaggerated in the media.

I know you technically didn't say that (you said it's simply warmer than it was earlier this month and that's true), but I wanted to say it before I start hearing that this week we are having "global warming" back. All the sea temperatures you quoted are normal, if not still a bit cooler than normal.....it's the height of summer for Pete's sake and by now the water will be (at least in the Sound) around 70 or 72!

You are absolutely right…it has been a cololer than normal June/July so far. I know they have been hyping this up in the media for some time. However in the mass media, dumb-downed hype, the media outlets spin…they leave out the important anomalies. As we say in meteorology… the devil is in the details:

Because of the orientation of the subtropical high (Bermuda High) this summer so far…there has been more of a southerly flow in the Atlantic Ocean off the East Coast of the USA than normal. This has caused a stronger than normal flow of ocean water from the deep tropics to move along the East Coast. In a more normal situation, more of the warmest waters would be directed into mid-ocean. This is the reason why surf temps have risen faster than normal. Right now…according to NOAA DVC , Atlantic Ocean temps are actually ABOVE NORMAL everywhere south of the Rhode Island on the East Coast (not by a lot, but above normal none the less). Normally, the Atlantic is just about 70 F on the south shore of Long Island in mid/late July, while 80 F surf is usually confined to areas south of Cape Lookout, NC in late July. Both locations are a good 2 weeks ahead of schedule. Right now buoys are showing 73 F surf off Long Island, NY…while the are pockets of 80 –82 water as far north as 200-miles east of Virginia. The record Atlantic Ocean temperature off Hillsboro Light in Florida in 1954 was 90. 4 F. On July 27th, 1954, the Atlantic was in the same pattern it is in now, and the surf temp was cooler than it is right now (83.9 F).

We have seen this pattern in the subtropical high several times before, ie..1999,1996, 1989, 1985, 1954, 1938, 1893…etc. Consequently, each of these years brought a major hurricane to the Eastern Seaboard somewhere between South Florida and Rhode Island. Not only did this pattern of a displaced Bermuda High increase sea surface temperatures…, but the southerly flow from July till late September (mid October in 1954) directed most tropical systems up along the East Coast. The hurricanes get caught in the humid, steamy southerly flow. So the pattern of a displaced eastward Bermuda High might give the East Coast a cooler summer…also leaves a trough or weakness along the Atlantic Seaboard of the USA, and helps direct tropical cyclones toward the East Coast of the United States.

I wouldn't get too wrapped up in the fact that there has been more days in the 80's instead of the 90's in NYC, Hartford, Bailtmore...etc. The humidity today and in the coming days on the East Coast will come out of the deep tropics (dew points tonight will not fall much below 70 F). The humidity is a direct result of the southerly flow from the Bahamas. If this pattern continues...it might have significant impacts for people along the East Coast from Rhode Island south…

However, none of this has anything to do with global warming. It just the normal variations in the position of the Azores/Bermuda High.

[renovating]

No, the prediction is for an average to slightly below average atlantic hurricane season. And I believe we cited the same source. Attached is the entire link.[/SIZE]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu...9/june2009.pdf[/SIZE]

Table 7 shows our final adjusted early June forecast for the 2009 season which is a combination of our statistical scheme, our analog forecast and qualitative adjustments for other factors not explicitly contained in any of these schemes. Our statistical forecast and our analog forecast indicate activity at near-average levels. We foresee a slightly below-average Atlantic basin hurricane season due to currently-observed unfavorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic. Another reason for our reduction in our early June forecast from our forecast of early April is our belief in an increased probability of a weak El Niño developing. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=3][/SIZE]

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

You are absolutely right…it has been a cololer than normal June/July so far. I know they have been hyping this up in the media for some time. However in the mass media, dumb-downed hype, the media outlets spin…they leave out the important anomalies. As we say in meteorology… the devil is in the details:

Because of the orientation of the subtropical high (Bermuda High) this summer so far…there has been more of a southerly flow in the Atlantic Ocean off the East Coast of the USA than normal. This has caused a stronger than normal flow of ocean water from the deep tropics to move along the East Coast. In a more normal situation, more of the warmest waters would be directed into mid-ocean. This is the reason why surf temps have risen faster than normal. Right now…according to NOAA DVC , Atlantic Ocean temps are actually ABOVE NORMAL everywhere south of the Rhode Island on the East Coast (not by a lot, but above normal none the less). Normally, the Atlantic is just about 70 F on the south shore of Long Island in mid/late July, while 80 F surf is usually confined to areas south of Cape Lookout, NC in late July. Both locations are a good 2 weeks ahead of schedule. Right now buoys are showing 73 F surf off Long Island, NY…while the are pockets of 80 –82 water as far north as 200-miles east of Virginia. The record Atlantic Ocean temperature off Hillsboro Light in Florida in 1954 was 90. 4 F. On July 27th, 1954, the Atlantic was in the same pattern it is in now, and the surf temp was cooler than it is right now (83.9 F).

We have seen this pattern in the subtropical high several times before, ie..1999,1996, 1989, 1985, 1954, 1938, 1893…etc. Consequently, each of these years brought a major hurricane to the Eastern Seaboard somewhere between South Florida and Rhode Island. Not only did this pattern of a displaced Bermuda High increase sea surface temperatures…, but the southerly flow from July till late September (mid October in 1954) directed most tropical systems up along the East Coast. The hurricanes get caught in the humid, steamy southerly flow. So the pattern of a displaced eastward Bermuda High might give the East Coast a cooler summer…also leaves a trough or weakness along the Atlantic Seaboard of the USA, and helps direct tropical cyclones toward the East Coast of the United States.

I wouldn't get too wrapped up in the fact that there has been more days in the 80's instead of the 90's in NYC, Hartford, Bailtmore...etc. The humidity today and in the coming days on the East Coast will come out of the deep tropics (dew points tonight will not fall much below 70 F). The humidity is a direct result of the southerly flow from the Bahamas. If this pattern continues...it might have significant impacts for people along the East Coast from Rhode Island south…

However, none of this has anything to do with global warming. It just the normal variations in the position of the Azores/Bermuda High.

Very good observation I didn't think of, thanks for the rundown.

It is interesting that there haven't been any Atlantic "named" storms yet (the big rains in the Northeast last week came very close to being the "A" storm, but it didn't quite develop enough). I don't remember the year (except that it was in the last few years), but there was a recent year where there were no named storms until August and then a lot came. Deja vu?

[Snowman27]

Best thread in a while..will reply later. T-storm cells popping up now.
I think ElNino will prevent us from having a hurricane due to upper level wind shear tearing apart the hurricanes.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

(the big rains in the Northeast last week came very close to being the "A" storm, but it didn't quite develop enough).

…that’s totally right.

The system that that passed over eastern Connecticut on Thursday night (July 23) was likely somewhere between a subtropical storm and tropical storm. However the center of the storm was not fully warm core (but it was darn close!), so the National Hurricane Center did not classify it as a tropical storm or depression. Still, like a typical tropical system…this storm had had a warm core up through the 850mb and 700mb levels, and high surface air temperature and dew points at landfall.

At my location on the far eastern Connecticut coast…the wind veered from the east ahead of the storm… into the southeast…then south.. then southwest…and then finally, the northwest once the storm moved by (very typical for Connecticut/Long Island hurricanes/tropical storms). I watched on radar (NWS- on line) as the center was approaching, it seemed that around 1:30 AM with each spiral band…the weather got a little worse (the wind gusted higher and the rain intensity increased). At about 3:00 AM - the weather really starting getting squall… the rain became torrential and the wind started gusting to over 40-mph at my weather station as the trees were swinging wildly (a shutter blew off the house). Meanwhile, the dew point temperature soared all the way up near 70 F, while the air temp stayed near 70 F. Shinnecock Inlet Tower on Long Island reported a wind gust to 55 mph, Westhampton Beach, LI hit 45-mph, while Tweed New Haven Airport gusts hit 40-mph according to the NWS, while my peak gust was 44-mph near Saybrook Point. Most of the torrential rain was in Middlesex, New London, and Suffolk Counties, NY (eastern Long Island). In many locations in eastern Long Island and eastern Connecticut….this tropical low dropped three –times as much rain as Hurricane Belle (1976) or Hurricane Gloria (1985). A rain gauge in Norwich, CT reported 4.06" of rain in less than 6 hours!

What is amazing…is that as far as Connecticut…only folks along the I-95 corridor from around Madison to Rhode Island and inland about 15-miles or so likely experienced these conditions (of those who were awake at 3:00 am-lol). That’s one of the strange geographic things about Connecticut: southeastern Connecticut experiences tropical storm conditions far more often than folks in the far northern or northwestern part of the state realize. At times, parts of NW Connecticut might not even know there is a tropical system passing to the east.

Here is a radar pic as the center was approaching the Long Island/Connecticut coast. Like a true tropical system… all the bad weather was close to the center. It looked like an eyewall was trying to form, as the thunderstorms were wrapping around the center when it was east of Delaware Bay…but it never closed. You can see most of the squalls were in southern Connecticut. People in northern/central Connecticut likley didn't even know there was a storm



I still think that long-term climate data is still the best indicator of weather events. Over the last 80 years or so…Connecticut/Long Island is now in the longest stretch we have ever been in without a hurricane landfall:

2009 so far…
(18 years)
1991 - Bob
(6 years)
1985 - Gloria
(9 years)
1976 - Belle
(16 years)
1960 - Donna
(6 years)
1954 (Carol)
(10-years)
1944
(6-years)
1938…

In any event I guess nature will let us know soon.

[7 Wishes]

Great post wavehunter (I don't want to "quote" such a long one).

Do want to note that a few scientists (but not the majority) debate whether Floyd landfalled in LI/CT as a minimal cat 1 in 1999. Officially it did as a very hi-end tropical storm right on the "borderline", but thought I'd note. We are certainly due here (and to some extent in NYC as well).

Several storms have landfalled LI/CT (or come close) at higher-end tropical storm strength in the 1990s and 2000s. Three I know of right off the bat are:

1) Bertha in 1996

2) Charlie in 2004

3) Hanna in 2008

Back home (southern Westchester County just bordering the city) my neighborhood lost lights for much of the night from the "near tropical system". Inland near Hartford where I'm staying on a temporary assignment through the end of July, didn't see the wind of course but the rains certainly looked "tropical".