[Cambium]

Get ready. Artic Cold Air dropping down. It won't get higher than 37 degrees for many days. Night time lows in the 20's possibly upper teens inland suburbs.

Possible Snow event on the 15th here.

[skel1977]

Id be surprised. Its too hard to predict the weather that far into the future. Every time the weatherman says its going to be sunny i bring my umbrella.

[wavehunter007]

I really wouldn’t put too much stock in snow in the Atlantic states from Rhode Island south at least until mid January. El – Nino is your enemy if you are a snow lover on the East Coast this winter. Here is the current sea surface temperature off the Tri-State area:



The Atlantic is much warmer than normal (due to a warm November along the East coast). Atlantic Ocean temperatures around Long Island/CT are still 52 -55 F (13 C). ANY wind of a southerly direction brings in mild and humid air (not the best thing if you want snow-lolo). Further, do to the lack of strong cold fronts in November (typical in El-Nino years) the Gulf Stream is even closer to the Tri-State area than normal (the normal fall pattern is for fronts and strong NW winds to push the tropical water current out into mid ocean). You can see there is an area of 18 C (65 F) waters sitting less than 140 - miles off the south shore of Long Island. Any south wind brings that warm air into Long Island/CT/RI. Forget snow…and forget lasting snowcover.

I think south of Massachusetts you will not see a significant snow (or any lasting snowcover) until mid January or later. I also think most of the Atlantic States will see very little snow this winter (Dec-March). But who really knows for sure?

[Cambium]

So am I correct saying that if the moisture pattern continues to come up the caost as it has done for months now, that the warm waters will fuel the storms more and if there is a strong enough arctic air, there will be some big snow events because of the extra moisture?

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Snowman27

if there is a strong enough arctic air, there will be some big snow events because of the extra moisture?

I am no expert…butI think that will be the problem...(as it always is in the Atlantic states from Rhode Island south in winter): Getting the cold air to hang on and getting the moisture close.

The typical path for winter storms (like a big one this week that will hit the Midwest with heavy snow on Wed/Thur) is for low pressure to head into the eastern Great Lakes. So the winds over the East Coast States are southerly ( warm air)…so all the moisture over the Atlantic is useless when it’s 49 F. The other situation is a very cold air mass coming down from Canada on NW winds…but Canadian air masses are often very dry, so it’s hard to get much snow out of that. While the warmer Atlantic waters would help fuel any storms (because of contrasting air masses) most of the low pressure areas in winter head into the eastern Great Lakes then into Canada. Despite the hype…the nor’easter type of winter storm off the Atlantic Coast is more unusual in winter.

I have always wondered why places near the Great Lakes like Buffalo, Grand Rapids, and Cleveland get 65 to 90 inches of snow a season…while places in the Tri-State area like NYC or Bridgeport, CT get 25 inches or less. Not only is the warm Atlantic a factor…but it seems that it’s much harder to get very cold air AND moisture close to each other. We get all of one or all of another most often. This is why NYC or New Haven sees half as much snow on average each winter than say Chicago or Detroit.

[Lowerdeck]

15th?

I'm hearing snow to rain on Wednesday the 9th. Though with rain at the end, probably keeps the snow down. Gonna suck driving to work in that slop though.

[JViello]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I really wouldn’t put too much stock in snow in the Atlantic states from Rhode Island south at least until mid January. El – Nino is your enemy if you are a snow lover on the East Coast this winter. Here is the current sea surface temperature off the Tri-State area:



The Atlantic is much warmer than normal (due to a warm November along the East coast). Atlantic Ocean temperatures around Long Island/CT are still 52 -55 F (13 C). ANY wind of a southerly direction brings in mild and humid air (not the best thing if you want snow-lolo). Further, do to the lack of strong cold fronts in November (typical in El-Nino years) the Gulf Stream is even closer to the Tri-State area than normal (the normal fall pattern is for fronts and strong NW winds to push the tropical water current out into mid ocean). You can see there is an area of 18 C (65 F) waters sitting less than 140 - miles off the south shore of Long Island. Any south wind brings that warm air into Long Island/CT/RI. Forget snow…and forget lasting snowcover.

I think south of Massachusetts you will not see a significant snow (or any lasting snowcover) until mid January or later. I also think most of the Atlantic States will see very little snow this winter (Dec-March). But who really knows for sure?

Didn't we just go through this? I had 6 inches of snow in my yard and still have 3ish kicking around.

What do you call "significant"?

[skel1977]

Originally Posted by Lowerdeck

15th?

I'm hearing snow to rain on Wednesday the 9th. Though with rain at the end, probably keeps the snow down. Gonna suck driving to work in that slop though.

yeah icy snowy mix they say. 1-2 inches possible. Wont make for a fun drive but other than that its nothing.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by skel1977

yeah icy snowy mix they say. 1-2 inches possible. Wont make for a fun drive but other than that its nothing.

I hear most of the mix will be "inland" (i.e. north of the Merritt/Wilbur Cross) and then mostly very late tonight (i.e. midnight to before sunrise) before all rain. Rain for everyone else.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by JViello

Didn't we just go through this? I had 6 inches of snow in my yard and still have 3ish kicking around.

What do you call "significant"?

Where on earth do you live in Connecticut that you have 3 inches of snow on the ground (lol). I drove from New Haven to Hartford this morning …and the whole way the ground was bare…even Bradley along the MA line has just a trace of snow on the ground.

I know that elevation makes a difference in snowfall…but I am totally shocked you have three inches on the ground. Kiss it goodbye anyway…the low that will cause blizzard conditions in the Great Lakes/Midwest… will draw warm air in off the Atlantic, bringing rain and temps of 45 F to ALL of Connecticut and Long Island on Wednesday.

El Nino is kicking butt