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Old 01-23-2011, 10:38 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
26,218 posts, read 14,265,993 times
Reputation: 4322

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MODEL UPDATE:
Another one goes out to sea.. We get flurries but its stays cold...Sounding more like a La Nina rather then the ElNino type weather we been having.. Good news for people not wanting snow or rain.

Lets talk about the weather folks and not make this into a teenage chatroom. I'm willing to discuss whats happening with the models if you are..
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Old 01-23-2011, 12:41 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
26,218 posts, read 14,265,993 times
Reputation: 4322
MODEL UPDATE:

The Euro just came out...Consistant on the last 4 runs since Friday night has practically locked in a solution.. The other models dancing all over the place... The Euro stays closer to the coast bringing snow for few hours 1am - 7am Thursday, to heavy rain all day Thursday to about 6pm then back to heavy snow ending Thursday night...
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Old 01-23-2011, 12:54 PM
 
Location: Live in NY State, (sometimes) work in CT
6,626 posts, read 8,347,645 times
Reputation: 2263
Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
Yes, it is quite rare for Central Park to fall below zero. However, believe it or not…it is also pretty rare for most of coastal Connecticut to fall below zero as well.

I have been at my location (about 1 mile from the beach) for 12 years…and only once had a low of – 2 F. In fact, in most years, I have lows that are above 10 F. My guess is that a lot of these temps that are being given are all subject to exposure issues. I really don’t trust temps recorded before even 1960. You know the stories about the old signal core (they used to record weather data in the early 1900’s). They were drunk half the time (lol).
I think you may see a "record"......NWS OKX website forecasting a low of -2 for Bridgeport: 7-Day Forecast for Latitude 41.22N and Longitude 73.2W. The last subzero in Bridgeport/Sikorsky was Jan. 10, 2004 when it was -2.

I bet if Central Park had the amount of snow/snow cover CT has it would have its first subzero low since 1994 (NWS forecasting low of 6 there).
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Old 01-23-2011, 01:04 PM
 
Location: Texas
1,812 posts, read 1,952,383 times
Reputation: 978
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
MODEL UPDATE:

The Euro just came out...Consistant on the last 4 runs since Friday night has practically locked in a solution.. The other models dancing all over the place... The Euro stays closer to the coast bringing snow for few hours 1am - 7am Thursday, to heavy rain all day Thursday to about 6pm then back to heavy snow ending Thursday night...
Is that your forecast, then?
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Old 01-23-2011, 01:04 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
26,218 posts, read 14,265,993 times
Reputation: 4322
National Weather Service Text Product Display

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUN AND
IS NOW EVEN SLOWER THAN THE EC. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE STORM...OVER OR JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK...BUT THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND
INTENSITY.

TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WARM AIR WILL BE FLOWING IN ALOFT... AND ALSO AT THE
SURFACE. TOUGH CALL AS TO HOW FAR INLAND THE LOWER LEVELS WARM.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE COAST... AND
SNOW FARTHER INLAND. OR RAIN MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD FARTHER
WEST...POSSIBLY TO NYC AND WESTERN CONNECTICUT...WITH FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW WEST OF THERE. DETAILS STILL FUZZY AND NOW THE 06Z
GFS JUST CAME IN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND WOULD COMPLETELY MISS US.
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Old 01-23-2011, 01:05 PM
 
Location: W. Hartford, CT
1,042 posts, read 1,026,698 times
Reputation: 344
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
MODEL UPDATE:

The Euro just came out...Consistant on the last 4 runs since Friday night has practically locked in a solution.. The other models dancing all over the place... The Euro stays closer to the coast bringing snow for few hours 1am - 7am Thursday, to heavy rain all day Thursday to about 6pm then back to heavy snow ending Thursday night...
What about Hartford county in this scenario? Warm enough for rain?
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Old 01-23-2011, 01:06 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
26,218 posts, read 14,265,993 times
Reputation: 4322
Quote:
Originally Posted by HeadedWest View Post
Is that your forecast, then?
Not here to make a forecast...Here to discuss weather...How about you?
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Old 01-23-2011, 01:08 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
26,218 posts, read 14,265,993 times
Reputation: 4322
Quote:
Originally Posted by rajmelk View Post
What about Hartford county in this scenario? Warm enough for rain?
Yes..Rain all the way up to MA but as the Storm moves out Cold air will filter in quick.. Based on the Euro Hartford county would see Snow to sleet to rain (less time than coast) to snow at night.
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Old 01-23-2011, 01:13 PM
 
Location: Live in NY State, (sometimes) work in CT
6,626 posts, read 8,347,645 times
Reputation: 2263
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
National Weather Service Text Product Display

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUN AND
IS NOW EVEN SLOWER THAN THE EC. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE STORM...OVER OR JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK...BUT THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND
INTENSITY.

TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WARM AIR WILL BE FLOWING IN ALOFT... AND ALSO AT THE
SURFACE. TOUGH CALL AS TO HOW FAR INLAND THE LOWER LEVELS WARM.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE COAST... AND
SNOW FARTHER INLAND. OR RAIN MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD FARTHER
WEST...POSSIBLY TO NYC AND WESTERN CONNECTICUT...WITH FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW WEST OF THERE. DETAILS STILL FUZZY AND NOW THE 06Z
GFS JUST CAME IN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND WOULD COMPLETELY MISS US.
I don't remember the date, but I remember last year (I think in Feb.) there was a very weird storm where the rain/snow line was essentially the NY/CT border (and on Long Island the Nassau/Suffolk county line) instead of coast vs. inland or something more north-south ish. I remember schools in CT open and closed in Westchester and the weird phenonemon of going south on I-95 and driving from heavy rain into snow (going home from work).

Would be funny if that repeats itself now.......
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Old 01-23-2011, 01:45 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
26,218 posts, read 14,265,993 times
Reputation: 4322
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
I don't remember the date, but I remember last year (I think in Feb.) there was a very weird storm where the rain/snow line was essentially the NY/CT border (and on Long Island the Nassau/Suffolk county line) instead of coast vs. inland or something more north-south ish. I remember schools in CT open and closed in Westchester and the weird phenonemon of going south on I-95 and driving from heavy rain into snow (going home from work).

Would be funny if that repeats itself now.......
Excellent excellent memory... This is why when a senario like this comes along you have to expect the forecast to change and possibly be different on that day as well... A storm center can move 50 miles east or west in 1 day and that 50 miles can mean the difference between all rain, all snow or mix.. This storm is a very complex situation. What we do know is that its going to be cold again after the storm.
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