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Old 02-17-2011, 04:31 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,445 posts, read 8,326,422 times
Reputation: 2049

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Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
Look I like colder weather over warmer (to an extent) I love spring and early summer AND FALL TOO. Trust me , by March I am DONE with the cold.

I'm done conversing with you...not impressed with your numbers NOR your way of presenting here.

Hmm...I don't think so:

The truth (and we both know it)…is that the GFS ensemble model just came out with the temperature anomalies for the next week (the map below is for NEXT Friday Feb 25th). Blue is below normal…yellow/orange is above normal.

La Nina's influence across North America has finally taken hold after a long delay thanks to the persistent high pressure blocking pattern that locked in from December to early Feb. Now it’s a done deal that much of western Canada and the NW U.S. is projected to be at least 20 degrees F colder than normal. ...the East looks fairly mild or at least normal too me. Oh of course, that's wrong becasue there is no pro winter spin to it, right (lol).


http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff141/nomadct/590x461_02171959_picture201.png (broken link)


Thanks for not conversing anymore...at least we won't have an out of state person trying to spin our local weather to what they want it to be. Sorry I never took any of your bait. Nice try though.
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Old 02-17-2011, 04:40 PM
 
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
308 posts, read 572,467 times
Reputation: 188
By the way did we not already double our expected annual snow fall for this winter season? Just asking.
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Old 02-17-2011, 04:44 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,445 posts, read 8,326,422 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CarolinaOnMyMind View Post
By the way did we not already double our expected annual snow fall for this winter season? Just asking.
Yes.

But we also have had only 2.0 inches of snow the whole month of Feb. So I guess you can hype it both ways;

By the way, if your going to use a different name, you might want to be more original

Gotta go now, ...but I'll be watching...so when you hype...you'll hear from me!
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Old 02-17-2011, 05:06 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
65,613 posts, read 47,829,580 times
Reputation: 10584
Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
There are no big snowstorms coming in the next 7 to 10 days.
Could you please provide us a link or data showing us this result. Thank You!
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Old 02-17-2011, 05:26 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
65,613 posts, read 47,829,580 times
Reputation: 10584
Monday-Tuesday February 21-22 Storm Update::

5:30 latest Model just out,... Continues the idea of two systems.. This is the first one for Monday... Low passes Right over us.. PA Jersey all rain on this run.. This is the point where you have to check your soundings...

A sounding shows the entire amosphere based on an exact coordinate



And the conditionals for that same hour... Looks like snows stay to the interior of NY and CT.

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Old 02-17-2011, 06:01 PM
 
Location: Live in NY State, work in CT
8,859 posts, read 14,314,634 times
Reputation: 3252
Wow, a LOT of activity in the half-day I've been away from this thread. I have two contrary comments, one for the "heat miser" and one for the "snow king":


Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
Here are some other "fun facts"...from the NWS office in NYC/Bridgeport:


1) LAST 1 –INCH OF SNOW…March 12th (100%).

This means on average that by March 12th….there is a 100% probability Bridgeport will not see another 1 - inch of snow (or greater) until the coming December (the next winter).


4) MARCH SNOWSTORMS IN THE TRI-STATE AREA:

If you use the National Weather Service criteria for a Winter-Storm watch/warning in terms of snowfall, then 6.0 inches of snow or greater would be considered a “snowstorm” I realize folks in places like Buffalo or Duluth would laugh at 6 inches being considered a snowstorm. Below are the number or 6.0 inch + “snowstorms” at NWS Bridgeport over the last 60 years (1948 – 2008) in March:

3/16/2007 – 6.0 inches
3/7/2003 - 7.0 inches.
3/13/1993 - 10.6 inches.
3/19/1992 – 7.1 inches.
3/29/1974 – 7.6 inches.
3/22/1967 - 11. 1 inches (The largest snowstorm in March in Southern CT in 61 years).
3/3/1960 – 7.5 inches.
3/19/1956 - 9.8 inches.

As you can see…there has been only eight (8) occurrences when a true snowstorm was recorded at NWS Bridgeport in the last 60 years. Put another way…only once every 7 to 10 years is there a true “snowstorm” in southern Connecticut in March. Again by March 12th on average…NWs Bridgeport has seen the last inch of snow for the winter season. Heavy snow and snowstorms in March across the southern Connecticut are not very likely, perhaps once a decade you might see one…although we went from 1974 to 1992 (18 years) without getting even ONE six inch or greater snow.



5) APRIL SNOW IN THE TRI-STATE AREA:

This is where the comic relief generally begins.

Since most winters on the East Coast are a disappointment for winter/snow fans…winter fans have somehow physiologically convinced themselves there is a real chance of significant snow (let alone accumulating snow) in April in the Tri-State area. This has been perpetrated by media outlets like the cartoonish Weather Channel. The scientific reality is of course quite different (it always is). Again… using NWS Bridgeport over the last 60 years here are the 1 –inch or greater snows over the last 60 years:

4/8/2003…2.0 inches
4/1/1997…4.0
4/9-10/1996….4.7
4/7-8/1996…2.0
4/7/1990…1.7
4/6/1982…6.0
4/4/1957…2.4
4/14/1950…3.7
Your first statement above contradicts your 4th and 5th statements. Yes the probability is pretty low, but if it TRULY meant 100% then there would never ever by any 1"+ snows past March 12.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
This is why I wanted to wait to post..I didnt want to ruin your warm parade... Looks like beginning of March is going to get fridgid "based on latest data" (see orange highlight).. If this verifys single digits all around the tri-state.

Also note the winds next week and also this weekend should get very windy.

All that stuff in Tulsa, etc. last week aside, there's got to be something wrong with that. One of the days shows a HIGH of 10 deg for Central Park in early March. The last time a LOW of under 10-deg occured in March in Central Park was in 1967. And the 2-deg low would be the ALL-TIME March low, breaking something from the colder 1800s (not "global warming" but "urban heat island"......Central Park has a lot more daily lows from the 1800s than other smaller cities with a similar length weather record). I do believe a much colder than normal early march, but not your chart.
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Old 02-17-2011, 06:23 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
65,613 posts, read 47,829,580 times
Reputation: 10584
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
Wow, a LOT of activity in the half-day I've been away from this thread. I have two contrary comments, one for the "heat miser" and one for the "snow king":

Your first statement above contradicts your 4th and 5th statements. Yes the probability is pretty low, but if it TRULY meant 100% then there would never ever by any 1"+ snows past March 12.
------
All that stuff in Tulsa, etc. last week aside, there's got to be something wrong with that. One of the days shows a HIGH of 10 deg for Central Park in early March. The last time a LOW of under 10-deg occured in March in Central Park was in 1967. And the 2-deg low would be the ALL-TIME March low, breaking something from the colder 1800s (not "global warming" but "urban heat island"......Central Park has a lot more daily lows from the 1800s than other smaller cities with a similar length weather record). I do believe a much colder than normal early march, but not your chart.
lol...Good post.. use words carefully here though; its not "my" chart its "the" chart. I agree with your cooler than average March statement and I agree "the" chart could be a little overdone but as with anything involving weather, the long range must not be considered a lock.. I do not see any 70s for next 2 weeks..but I do see what the chart is saying. Tahoe City, CA 32 inches in 24hrs. wow.

Side note: I appreciate all the PMs Im getting from you guys and I'm glad some people actually point out the distorted facts and unsupported claims of one poster.

Last edited by Cambium; 02-17-2011 at 06:57 PM.. Reason: added tahoe face
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Old 02-17-2011, 06:28 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
65,613 posts, read 47,829,580 times
Reputation: 10584
This model shows something different from the last one I posted... NOGAPS at hr132... Here's what I dont like about it... #1...it merges and slows the storm down and gives a ton of precip and cold air with it... I dont like it because no other models are showing this senario. Mother Nature does have its own mind but (sucking my teeth, shaking my head) just doesnt look right... See that dashed blue line going across? Thats the 32 degree line well south of us .. According to this close to half foot for CT... 7-10" for Eastern & northern PA..

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Old 02-17-2011, 06:33 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
65,613 posts, read 47,829,580 times
Reputation: 10584
Here's the DGEX model at hr 120. Same deal as the last one NOGAPS with the cold air but the precip amount is more reality..just 2-4" widespread. The only one with the warmer air is the GFS..

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Old 02-17-2011, 08:13 PM
 
9,425 posts, read 8,508,936 times
Reputation: 5584
Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
Yea, when someone tries to stop people or the media from hyping the weather...it can get annoying. It sucks having people who know the truth about climate and weather. TV News media hates me
Cambium...what is this TOOL talking about? All you are doing is showing models with possible weather scenario's ...how is that hype?

Last edited by JayCT; 02-18-2011 at 07:50 AM.. Reason: Removed flame
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