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Old 08-21-2011, 07:46 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
You have to backup your claims. What makes you think "No Way"? Give us a science approach to this claim. Just like if you said "it will" hit us...what makes you say this? otherwise its called "wishcasting" and thats a big No No in the weather world. Notice I just mention model projections. Thats all we can do at this point...

Yes you can always add your "thoughts" but when you say "this is a No way" you are trying to create a fact that hasnt happened.

So is that your thought or do you have backup for that "no way" senario?
You mentioned "A" model projection. Also a no no in forecasting .... Just look at the "average " model tracks.. Not the one track that works for you. Everything has it going into Florida...for a storm to make it up the coast intact it has to start bending north earlier in the track or take an approach north of the islands into the bahamas...
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Old 08-21-2011, 07:52 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Here's the latest Satelite image with recon plane flying into it and the model tracks... Looks like most of the models agree on the I95 track in general.

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Old 08-21-2011, 07:59 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
26,237 posts, read 14,284,596 times
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Storms Sunday August 21, 2011

While the storms should be more intense over Southern NY and Western CT I think the entire state needs to keep an eye on the sky today. 30% risk of hail and severe winds. 5% chance of Tornado.

once the air destabilizes we should see the storms pop up and move into the area this afternoon/evening
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Old 08-21-2011, 08:04 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Here's the latest Satelite image with recon plane flying into it and the model tracks... Looks like most of the models agree on the I95 track in general.
Right..but its all inland....almost every model. I think a soaking rain is very possible. How can you look at this and see 60 MPH winds for CT?
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Old 08-21-2011, 08:31 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
Right..but its all inland....almost every model. I think a soaking rain is very possible. How can you look at this and see 60 MPH winds for CT?
Sometimes I wish i was the moderator ... Stop putting words in my mouth. The 60mph winds was with the model from days ago. WTF. Models change everyday...Where did I mention it with todays?

Hurricane or Not I think people should know about 6 inches of rain in a 24hr period especially with already saturated areas. Tree root systems dont like saturated grounds.

You want details? Here....Enjoy... Tropical Storm Irene | OHweather Blog
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Old 08-21-2011, 08:47 AM
 
5,293 posts, read 3,976,203 times
Reputation: 1848
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Sometimes I wish i was the moderator ... Stop putting words in my mouth. The 60mph winds was with the model from days ago. WTF. Models change everyday...Where did I mention it with todays?

Hurricane or Not I think people should know about 6 inches of rain in a 24hr period especially with already saturated areas. Tree root systems dont like saturated grounds.

You want details? Here....Enjoy... Tropical Storm Irene | OHweather Blog
Days ago? Yesterday to be exact. Those are your words, nobody put them in your mouth... You want to back off it fine but don't act like you didn't say it. You say "models" but what "I" think you mean is model.
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Old 08-21-2011, 11:58 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
26,237 posts, read 14,284,596 times
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NorthEast Tropical Impact Update

Latest GFS model just completed. It takes the hurricane east of Florida and hits South Caroina and then moves up the coast.

Here's a snapshot of what it has for the NorthEast.
a 982mb low sitting over NY which would translate to roughly 40-50mph wind gusts and its showing 5-9" rain in 24 hr period.

ALL SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THIS IS BASED ON ONE MODEL RUN. (which has been consistant)

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Old 08-21-2011, 12:14 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
26,237 posts, read 14,284,596 times
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And for those of you who want to see it.........Here's the wind off that run I posted just now.

Each line on the barb(flag) is 10kts. half a line is 5kts. A flag on the end is 50kts.

1 kt = 1.4mph.

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Old 08-21-2011, 12:29 PM
 
5,293 posts, read 3,976,203 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
NorthEast Tropical Impact Update

Latest GFS model just completed. It takes the hurricane east of Florida and hits South Caroina and then moves up the coast.

Here's a snapshot of what it has for the NorthEast.
a 982mb low sitting over NY which would translate to roughly 40-50mph wind gusts and its showing 5-9" rain in 24 hr period.

ALL SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THIS IS BASED ON ONE MODEL RUN. (which has been consistant)
If this storm can avoid Hispaniola somehow it could be a very large problem for somewhere in Florida. If that occurs its recurve will come right up into south Florida without much weakening...
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Old 08-21-2011, 12:34 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
26,237 posts, read 14,284,596 times
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Issued 10 minutes ago for Dutchess County, NY heading to NorthWest CT

121 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
* UNTIL 200 PM EDT
* AT 117 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PLEASANT
VALLEY...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF POUGHKEEPSIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
STANFORDVILLE BY 125 PM EDT...
AMENIA BY 135 PM EDT...
MILLERTON BY 145 PM EDT...
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