[Cambium]

KATIA UPDATE::

2 models(canadien and Euro) have it hitting (or near)New England... Whether this is just a usual model dance or a new trend; we'll have to see.

Based on these 2 runs I'll have to keep a closer on on Katia now.

[Cambium]

Here's the Euro at hr 168. It then moves NE and sweeps past Cape Cod. Too close for comfort.

I hate to say it but the pattern is coastal storms for us BUT... NAO is going positive so thats less of a coastal storm chance AND......... I hate being wrong. LOL OTS OTS OTS

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Here's the Euro at hr 168. It then moves NE and sweeps past Cape Cod. Too close for comfort.

I hate to say it but the pattern is coastal storms for us BUT... NAO is going positive so thats less of a coastal storm chance AND......... I hate being wrong. LOL OTS OTS OTS

Well, as clustered as the models were for Irene, they are the complete opposite for Katia..its a crapshoot right now..would be a complete guess to make a prediction. If the low upper low / Lee gets hold of Katia she is heading to the coast..If the jet stream to the north gets hold she is out to sea..anybodies guess..

[7 Wishes]

Looks like Lee is weakening faster than expected and moving more WEST instead of east.....that could be good for TX and for us too (less rain next week). Maybe this means Katia (which is back to a TS again!) doesn't get pulled to New England after all.....

[jp03]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Looks like Lee is weakening faster than expected and moving more WEST instead of east.....that could be good for TX and for us too (less rain next week). Maybe this means Katia (which is back to a TS again!) doesn't get pulled to New England after all.....

Its moving at 4 MPH right now ..it will take its northeast turn very soon ... slowly albeit.

[Cambium]

4 frames of the last Euro model. Looks like Katia will be a threat to CT, RI, MA, ME and not NYC with the way it recurves. When I say "threat" I mean its getting damn close.

It moves NW to off the coast of SC. Then moves north about 100 miles off Cape Hatteras NC, then starts to recurve away from the coast but comes pretty close on this run.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by jp03

Its moving at 4 MPH right now ..it will take its northeast turn very soon ... slowly albeit.

It has gone back to N from NNW and has "slowed down" to 2 mph, so you're right, anything is possible, though the Weather Channel seems to have NYC and CT on the easternmost edge of any big rain now rather than in the "meat" of it and Accuweather in talking about the cold front that is going to break the big Dallas heat wave today (one day short of the all time record of 69 days of 100+ degrees set in 1980) mentioned the possibility that Lee stays a bit further west than originally planned and gives eastern TX much needed rain.

Katia coming close to here could change all that though.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

It has gone back to N from NNW and has "slowed down" to 2 mph, so you're right, anything is possible, though the Weather Channel seems to have NYC and CT on the easternmost edge of any big rain now rather than in the "meat" of it and Accuweather in talking about the cold front that is going to break the big Dallas heat wave today (one day short of the all time record of 69 days of 100+ degrees set in 1980) mentioned the possibility that Lee stays a bit further west than originally planned and gives eastern TX much needed rain.

Katia coming close to here could change all that though.

Except the farthest southeast corner of Texas, i dont see any chance of rain in that state. They will definitely cool down but Lee will likely have no effect on them.

[Cambium]

Thats why the models are trending more West...Lee has slowed down! So basically if Lee stalls, Katia will hit NC and maybe New England. So all eyes on Lee now.

[7 Wishes]

Latest update Lee is moving NE so perhaps it's "back on track" But as just posted, at that slow a speed, who knows what's it going to do.

Also noticed that latest update NHS seems to be starting to be predicting the "turn back to sea" for Katia at 5 days.....