10-25-2011, 03:35 AM
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
Active pattern. Entire 1980s was way under average. Looks like we're entering a 60s type pattern at this pace...
Looks like NWS Albany ackowledges what I saw on the Euro...but they are leaning towards the GFS...
National Weather Service Text Product Display
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL INDUCE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
GFS DEVELOPS THIS LOW FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THAT ONLY THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA GETS ANY PCPN.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION .
WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE GFS AND FORECAST CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S...LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 40S...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH
NWS OKX still has the weird forecast for our area of "partly sunny with a chance of rain" but has the chance at 30%. They too note the above in their discussion except they claim the GFS takes it far out to sea enough that no one gets anything!
10-25-2011, 05:32 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
7 Wishes
They too note the above in their discussion except they claim the GFS takes it far out to sea enough that no one gets anything!
HPC saying GFS is an outlier...meaning its the odd ball and that the Euro and UKMET have been handling the system better.
The last Euro that came out at 3am has the storm stronger.
What is baffling me is that Nor'Easters are not uncommon for October...but the cold air locked in place during the storm is ...
I usually dont see images like the models are showing for another couple months. Is this the pattern that is setting up for winter??
Here are 4 different models... Top left image is the last Euro look at that thing sitting off the coast and the cold air to the West of it.
Then look at the GFS. LMAO! Nothing.
4 of the 7 models show snow happening (Im not saying for entire state yet but a swath in the NorthEast)
10-25-2011, 11:47 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Here we go...already. lol If you're travelling north keep an eye on Thursdays and Saturdays storms.
Which of you is voting for Senario #1for Saturday?
10-25-2011, 02:33 PM
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
Here we go...already. lol If you're travelling north keep an eye on Thursdays and Saturdays storms.
NWS OKX says 2 models (EC and UKMET) have the big storm and 2 (HFC and GFS) have it out to sea, but they're now hedging in the storms favor and saying cloudy with 50% chance.
10-25-2011, 02:48 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
7 Wishes
NWS OKX says 2 models (EC and UKMET) have the big storm and 2 (HFC and GFS) have it out to sea, but they're now hedging in the storms favor and saying cloudy with 50% chance.
Thank you...
Here's the afternoon update after I anazlyzed them all.
Flat OTS (Sunny Weekend) GFS, NOGAPS, CMC
Big NorthEast Storm (Snowstorm, Wind, Rainstorm weekend) EURO, JMA
Just misses off the NE coast (Cloudy weekend) DGEX, UKMET
Which are you guys hoping is right? lol
Each will flip back and forth next few days. lol
10-25-2011, 07:37 PM
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
Thank you...
While part of me would find snow cool (there must be something special about my birthday (this Sat, the 29th) and October snow....the only two October snows recorded in CPK since 1979 were on that day, in 2000 and 2002......in 2008 the same thing happened in Newark and Bridgeport but not the other local airports.....though I think the OKX site doesn't show "daily snow records of a trace" for LaGuardia and JFK because Accuweather in an article about the possible coming snow said they got a T in 2008 on the date), I had some outdoor fall foliage related plans (and have a temporarily super-busy schedule for which nice days outdoors are few and far between even on the weekend) so I'm rooting for the sun this time....
10-25-2011, 09:06 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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In case you missed it...Jim Cantore's thoughts. He goes over the Euro and the GFS. He said it would be a rare event for a Blockbuster snowstorm in Baltimore/D.C in October and he's not buying a full fledge Blizzard up the coast because there's no Blocking High.
Jim Cantore on October 29, 2011 Snow Storm - YouTube
Last edited by nei; 10-08-2012 at 10:30 PM ..
10-26-2011, 04:49 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Saturday Storm Update:
Looks like Euro giving into the others... Better agrement now the storm moves up the coast BUT stays offshore enough not to give us anything but light snow/flurries along the coast, nothing interior.
Bundle up the kiddies this weekend. If there's any changes with the models I'll post it.
Thursday Storm Update:
Havent checked the forecast but I believe we'll see out first frozen precip before we see our first frost. LOL If that makes any sense. Im seeing enough cold air thursday night to change the liquid to sleet and even snow north of I-84(no accumulations).
Edit:..Yup
10-26-2011, 06:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
Saturday Storm Update: Thursday Storm Update:
Even so, first flakes before Nov 1! Rare...
10-26-2011, 12:17 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Future Radar Reflectivity
This is from the NAM model. I really like this model and it confirms what I think will happen next 60 hours. Watch those blues(snow) fill in.
This is from 9am today to 8pm Friday.
NAM 60hr Reflectivity - YouTube
You can find the recent one with this link. It will update with each model run (4x a day)
http://policlimate.com/weather/wrf/name_cref.html
Please register City-data.com
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Residents speaking English at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking other language at home (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Foreign born (%)
Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed in own incorporated business (%)
Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Federal government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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Future Radar Reflectivity
