[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

He may be talking about Windsor Locks up to Springfield, though 2 in 5 or even 1 in 2 may not be so unusual for Hartford and a little south. Once you get even a little away from the coast there's snow cover for a good part more of the winter. It is about 1 in 4 for NYC itself and the CT coast (maybe even closer to 1 in 5 for NYC down to the Jersey shore), but from say Albany to Buffalo and in most of VT and all but southeast NH it's more like 2 in 3 or even 3 in 4 (now go up to the Caribou/Presque Isle area of northern ME and it's almost every Christmas!)

As far as snow for XMASS – the far northern reaches of the Tri-State area (NW NJ/Northern CT) seem to average about 1 in 2 for chance of a white Christmas (meaning snow on the ground on the morning of Dec 25th). So the above map shows about the same thing (40 – 50 %). As you approach southern CT/NYC/Island/ and the 95 corridor the numbers seem to fall fast. I remember Dr. Mel used to say it was about 1 in 4 along the I-95 cities (Stamford, Bridgeport, New Haven) and 1 in 5 for southeast CT/NYC/eastern NJ...so you might be right. However, the above map seems to show 26 to 40 %. Once you get as close as southern New Jersey…snow for XMASS is really a long, long shot.

Otherwise, some RAIN showers should pull through tonight across the Tri-State area, though they look lighter and lighter now. After that, skies will clear with high temps from the upper 40’s to low 50’s with sunshine. The first day of December and the start of meteorological winter 2011/2012 should feature blazing sunshine and highs in the lower 50’s . Enjoy.

Point Forecast: New Haven CT
41.29°N 72.92°W

Tonight: Showers, mainly before 4am. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 50. Southeast wind 7 to 11 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Wednesday: Scattered showers before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 55. West wind between 8 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming northwest.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 51. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 53.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 45.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 51.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 53.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

As far as snow for XMASS – the far northern reaches of the Tri-State area (NW NJ/Northern CT) seem to average about 1 in 2 for chance of a white Christmas (meaning snow on the ground on the morning of Dec 25th). So the above map shows about the same thing (40 – 50 %). As you approach southern CT/NYC/Island/ and the 95 corridor the numbers seem to fall fast. I remember Dr. Mel used to say it was about 1 in 4 along the I-95 cities (Stamford, Bridgeport, New Haven) and 1 in 5 for southeast CT/NYC/eastern NJ...so you might be right. However, the above map seems to show 26 to 40 %. Once you get as close as southern New Jersey…snow for XMASS is really a long, long shot.

Otherwise, some RAIN showers should pull through tonight across the Tri-State area, though they look lighter and lighter now. After that, skies will clear with high temps from the upper 40’s to low 50’s with sunshine. The first day of December and the start of meteorological winter 2011/2012 should feature blazing sunshine and highs in the lower 50’s . Enjoy.

Point Forecast: New Haven CT
41.29°N 72.92°W

Tonight: Showers, mainly before 4am. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 50. Southeast wind 7 to 11 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Wednesday: Scattered showers before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 55. West wind between 8 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming northwest.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 51. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 34.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 53.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 45.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 51.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 53.

Looks like a great weekend coming up for CT! About normal temps.. Love the crisp clear not too cold days at this time of year. Its a great prelude to the cold snowy days to follow.

[wavehunter007]

Weather watchers might find this interesting:

Most seem to think that this La Nina Pattern will bring warm, dry, and sunny weather to much of the Eastern USA. I think this is why we have been so warm/dry/sunny this November(temps in the 60’s and 70’s). Based I this forecast...I think snow/cold will be hard to come by on the East Coast this winter...

AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Snow Tonight. La Nina Pattern. Snow Denver to Texas Panhandle (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/snow-tonight-la-nina-pattern-snow-denver-to-texas-panhandle/58375 - broken link)

[kidyankee764]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I think snow/cold will be hard to come by on the East Coast this winter...

Boy do I hope you're right!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

Boy do I hope you're right!

Yes...there wont be 60" in 4 weeks this year.

Snows will be lighter and spread out over the entire season.

No blocking High up north that means no Bombs on the coast.. Cant rule out another 6-18" snowstorm like we just had, but the chances are less of getting multiple blockbuster storms with this setup.

As far as the air.. Its going to continue this cold come...cold go pattern.. The Cold air will stay for a week but we moderate right after.. Unlike a persistant cold like last year.

I "think" we'll all see Normal to slightly above normal snow this year but like I said...spread out and not stick around much.

And be careful with the media when you hear weak La Nina doesnt bring a lot of snow to the East... there is solid evidence it does. There's more to it then just a Weak La Nina.

With that said... Latest Euro out has 4-6" for Eastern CT and Boston on the 7th.. Still early but I'm stil watching it... Continues to dive Polar air and enough moisture for snow. We'll see.

[Cambium]

From NWS Upton. They dont mention the system next week yet because its too soon and things can change, but they do mention a possibility of snow showers Friday night as the High Pressure moves in with at or below normal temps.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS ON THU/FRI...AND THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AFTER A COLD FROPA FRI NIGHT. THE 28/12Z ECMWF DOES SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING...WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WITH THE COLD FROPA AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN OFFSHORE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST THEN THE 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY OUT EAST.

OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WED-FRI...THEN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SAT. SUNDAY-MON WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

[CarolinaOnMyMind]

Lets not forget the same people who are predicting no snow and cold this winter were the same people who made these same predictions last year and we all know how that turned out. Lets also remember that we had well above average snowfall last year despite a La Nina which was significantly stronger than this current one. An east-based La Nina has historically given the northeast above average snow and colder than norm temps.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_1ec81vVHf...1600/Nino2.jpg

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by CarolinaOnMyMind

Lets not forget the same people who are predicting no snow and cold this winter were the same people who made these same predictions last year and we all know how that turned out. Lets also remember that we had well above average snowfall last year despite a La Nina which was significantly stronger than this current one. An east-based La Nina has historically given the northeast above average snow and colder than norm temps.

You mean the solar angle and warm ocean people? Whooops.

I'll have a chart that shows the totals we got during weak La Nina... It irritates me that "some" meterologists and media are soley going by that.

Did you see whats happening down south right now? In November.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by kidyankee764

Boy do I hope you're right!

Really...I thought you were a big, big snow fan

Keep in mind, that seasonal snowfall at most of the NWS stations across the Tri-State are in the 20 to 30 inch range - spread out from early December to late March. Last Jan was a 100 or maybe 500 year event - like two hurricanes hitting the Tri-State in one year. So there is a 99.9 % we'll have less snow than last year. Of course, there is that 0.1% that could go another way.

In the coming weeks we'll see this pattern of rather mild conditions in the Tri-State/Middle Atlantic coast - a cold shot, follwed by warming conditions, a cold shot, then another warm up...etc. Otherwise, as of right now, looking ahead maybe 3 weeks or so....there is close to zero chance that there will be any lasting cold/snowy conditions on the East Coast, at least below Boston.

The good news is if December stays sunny and warm(ish)...the darkest month of the year will pass by on a very light and mild note. Then, that solar angle will start building again right after Dec 21st.

[papafox]

Originally Posted by CarolinaOnMyMind

Lets not forget the same people who are predicting no snow and cold this winter were the same people who made these same predictions last year and we all know how that turned out. Lets also remember that we had well above average snowfall last year despite a La Nina which was significantly stronger than this current one. An east-based La Nina has historically given the northeast above average snow and colder than norm temps.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_1ec81vVHf...1600/Nino2.jpg

I thought the snowy winter (Jan) we had last year was due to strongly negative NAO and very positive PNA, not La Nina.

Is that true??