[Cambium]

Upton... All models bring the storm West of the point where it needs to be for any snow at the coast. Couple inches N&W of NYC.

There's the change you all were waiting for. Some Interior spots should get some plowable snows though.

THE MODELS DO ALL BRING THE LOW WEST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WHICH HELPS TO USHER IN WARMER AIR FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.

THE MAIN...AND VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...THE PERIOD THAT SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN. WINDS SHIFT TO A WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BRINGING IN THE MUCH COOLER AIR. HOWEVER...WITH THE COOLER AIR REACHING THE AREA MOSTLY AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS...NOT EXPECTING ANY SNOW IN THE NYC METRO AREA...LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CT. A COUPLE INCHES IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS AREA AS THE RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE WED NIGHT

Here's Taunton for Northern CT.

* A COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON WED BRINGING ACCUMULATION SNOW OF 1-4 INCHES TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SINCE THE COASTAL LOW HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP HAS SHIFTED FARTHER NORTHWEST. BELIEVE THE AREA THAT WILL RECEIVE BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW FALL WILL BE ACROSS BERKSHIRES AND INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION CHANCES GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FARTHER SOUTHEAST. ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN IMPACT...EXCEPT A FEW SLICK ROADS

[Cambium]

Storm Track from HPC. Like Threading a needle. A shift 25 miles southEast and snowtotals go up. This is the track you want if you want rain.

Also note..look how far it is just 12hrs apart. fast mover. No Blocking up north to slow it down.

[Wilton2ParkAve]

All rain, let's hang it up on this one. Your track record is commendable, despite some sensational tendencies, but you can't win them all.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve

All rain, let's hang it up on this one. Your track record is commendable, despite some sensational tendencies, but you can't win them all.

Yup, Thanks .. but its not about winning/losing...just calling what I see and having fun watching it and interacting with everyone here.

You cant get more rain than this set up now.. 993 Low is right over Long Island..Back end flurries at best as it moves out.



So what happened with this one?

A. In October a small storm & a cold front passed through before the main storm came up the coast. Air was cool enough then snow cooled the surface.

B. This system will be elongated which means more southwest flow keeping air warm.

C. Storm is too close to coast so warm core too close to us

D. Models were worse then before(worse I seen in a long time even 3 days out!)

E. Trough not negative(cold air not filtering in)

F. The High Pressure in northern Atlantic is further west now therefore the storm is pushed closer to coast..

G. Storm is waaay to quick

I still say NWCT sees some accumulation though.
But thats why I love weather, its always changing and keeps you on your feet..

I think Texas & Arkansas are seeing snow right now.

[Cambium]

We're about 15 degrees ABOVE Normal this morning....Once again the South is freezing and we are sweating. lol

[wendwalkers]

Winter is my favorite season.

[Cambium]

December 8, 2011 Storm update & Next Potential

I put together all the locations since all 8 counties are with different NWS locations. Litchfield and parts of Hartford should get the most snow from this storm now.,. Top right is Rain... 2" of rain in 24hrs could cause some flooding.

Temps will stay mild and then as the front comes through drop to more seasonable. Tomorrow should struggle to get out of 40s.



Next system to watch... Time Frame December 17-19. This is the first I have seen this type of intensity with it so it will have to be watched. I havent seen this strength since TS Irene.

This particular senario on the latest GFS is showing a snowstorm from Baltimore North and a Blizzard from NYC north.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wendwalkers

Winter is my favorite season.

Welcome to the forum and the thread... Winter is usually here by this time , but this year it's hiding in the South. lol We truely only have 2 months of True winter in this area so enjoy anything you can get. I've been thinking a 2nd half this year (After holidays). So far its holding true. We'll see. If not our only hope is La Nina stays put for Summer so the Summer isnt brutal like with a El Nino.

[wavehunter007]

Here is the latest snow forecast for the Northeast USA. It looks like mostly the the higher elevations will see any real snow…for the rest of the metro East Coast (including most of Connecticut) it looks like rain.









In any event, after this rainstorm/snowstorm passes, a long stretch of nice weather is in store from Thursday onwards. Sunny and seasonable with highs 40 – 45 F. The big ridge off the south Atlantic/east Gulf shows no sigh of moving...so we should see little really cold air in the coming 2 to 4 weeks.


NWS New York, NY
Point Forecast: New Haven CT
41.29°N 72.92°W


Today: Rain, mainly after 9am. High near 56. North wind between 7 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tonight: Rain, mainly before 4am. Low around 38. Windy, with a north wind 11 to 14 mph increasing to between 23 and 26 mph. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 44. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 21 mph decreasing to between 10 and 13 mph. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. South wind between 3 and 7 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 42.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 42.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 43.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.

[Cambium]

You can clearly see how the track is...here's the snowfall accumulation for from the Latest NAM model. Litchfield Hills could see almost half foot (especially if you're over 1000'). This map doesnt account for elevation. Higher you are the quicker the changeover will be