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Old 12-19-2011, 07:44 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
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and fyi - The Blizzard out in Texas, Oklahoma & Kansas right now is NOT part of this system for the weekend. That is the one that will bring us rain on Wednesday as the Ridge pumps heat to us.

New low forms in gulf on Wednesday and that small system could bring us light snow on Friday if it doesnt stay too far south.

Then Friday a new wave from the Gulf goes to the coast and up which is the Christmas Eve/Day system.. One model(GFS) splits the energy in the gulf and brings one low off the coast and up and the other to the great lakes.
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Old 12-19-2011, 08:33 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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This is gonna be a long week... I'll try not to flood this thread with posts but we all understand the importance of this.

Accu's First Map.
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Old 12-19-2011, 08:59 AM
 
Location: Out in the stix
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wow look at that rain snow line, talk about a split through CT. Hoping for rain...have to travel
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Old 12-19-2011, 09:27 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Latest GFS (out just now) Has a Rainstorm for all (except upstate NY/Vermont)

There are a ton of updates(over 15) throughout the day so instead of me posting each run, I'm going to look for consistancy in them. Right now it's a 50:50.

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Old 12-19-2011, 09:29 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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I guess NWS OKX is changing the forecasts fast because here's the New Haven forecast I just found, somewhat different from the one Wavehunter posted, look at Xmas Eve night in particular:

This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 44. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 16 and 20 mph.

Tonight: A chance of sprinkles, mixing with flurries after 11pm, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. West wind between 9 and 16 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. North wind between 6 and 13 mph.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 31. Calm wind.

Wednesday: Rain likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 50. South wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Showers likely, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51.

Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Saturday: A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Christmas Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42.
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Old 12-19-2011, 10:13 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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I love this guy because he does what other meteos dont do...take the time to explain things (and without hype)..

His business is to focus on the Mid Atlantic but he discusses the entire area a lot of time.

Start at 3:00


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XeMHqZtjMGY&feature=uploademail
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Old 12-19-2011, 01:43 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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By the way it’s looking...rain is the most likely form of precipitation from the I-95 cities from Washington, D.C., to New Haven. The chances of snow seem to really only be in the far northern and western suburbs of these cities on into the Appalachians. Farther north along I-95 from Massachusetts into Maine, the odds seem to favor a wintry mix to all snow.

Here is the latest (3:25 PM) forecast for southern Connecticut – the Xmass eve and day now show only rain for southern Connecticut/NYC, also the odds of precip seem to have fallen a bit more – now just 30 to 40%:

NWS New York, NY
Point Forecast: New Haven CT
41.3°N 72.95°W

Last Update: 3:25 pm EST Dec 19, 2011
Forecast Valid: 4pm EST Dec 19, 2011-6pm EST Dec 26, 2011


Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. West wind between 13 and 15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. North wind between 8 and 14 mph.

Tuesday Night: Increasing clouds, with a low around 30. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Wednesday: Rain, mainly after noon. High near 50. South wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Rain likely, mainly before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 39. South wind 6 to 9 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51.

Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Saturday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Christmas Day: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
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Old 12-19-2011, 03:33 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
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TWC Senarios showing both GFS and Euro models.

BTW - Last couple updates show rain but snowstorm north of us in MA.
More importantly a new trend regarding Fridays storm its north more.(which means we get moisture from it) Before it was well south of us.



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Old 12-19-2011, 04:33 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
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Slop/Mix means rain to snow or vise versa. No agreement yet on anything. Now 4-5 days out. Should start to see something tomorrow.

Maybe we should try to get all our shopping done next few days.

December 23, 2011 Storm Update
Slop-Mix - 2
Rain - 2
Snow - 2
Nothing -

December 25, 2011 Storm Update
Slop-Mix - 2
Rain -
Snow - 3
Nothing - 1
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Old 12-19-2011, 05:18 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
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I made this map for people to see the coverage areas of the NWS offices.

Upton covers the 4 southern Counties in CT. Albany covers Litchfield. Boston covers the rest.

So when Upton says "northern portion" or "interior" they are talking about the spots above Long Island, NYC and a few miles away from Merrit.

I hope you like this map and it helps.



Here's Uptons latest text discussions: No confidence in weekend yet though.

Quote:
THE NEXT WAVE COMES ABOUT LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FEEL RATHER CONFIDENT IN THIS SYSTEM ... INLAND AREAS
DO LOOK LIKE A P-TYPE OF MAINLY SN. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES
ARE SUPPORTED (INLAND)...THOUGH TEMPS MAY SUPPORT MORE OF A
GRASSY...SECONDARY ROAD TYPE OF ACCUMULATION.

MAJOR UNCERTAINTY ARISES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A PLETHORA OF
SOLUTIONS. P TYPE IS MAINLY LIQUID FOR THE COAST...BUT MAINLY SNOW NW...

Last edited by Cambium; 12-19-2011 at 05:32 PM..
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