[Cambium]

Originally Posted by TobinJ

Freak flurries in Hartford...nice afternoon distraction.

Thanks for the report. Yeah the cold air was still in place as the moisture came in but soon to change to rain...and a lot of it. Should get heavy at times tonight.

After tomorrow there's one word to describe the weather till next week... Boring. Going to get quiet again for a little bit.

Mark these dates down. February 4-7 & February 19-23. I think there's going to be a big storm maybe even a snowstorm.

[Cambium]

Current Radar image.


Forecasted amount of rain

[wavehunter007]

Although the strong subtropical ridge off the south Atlantic coast and the trough in the center of the USA is helping to give the East Coast a mild winter – warmer than normal SST are also helping keep even marginal events mostly rain. Normally this time of year, SST off the New Jersey coast and south of Long Island should be around 42 – 44 F (6)…but this year SST are in the 48 – 49 F (8 – 9 C) range. In fact, because there has been so little arctic air and few strong cold fronts/arctic fronts, the Gulf Stream is a bit more north and west than it normally is in mid/late winter. If you look near 38 N/70 - 72 W, there is a growing area of near 60 F (14 – 16 C) SST. This area is less than 180 miles south of the Connecticut coast. So any even light east/southeast flow, brings nice mild subtropical air right over the Tri-State area.

In terms of pressure patterns…as we head into Feb, and the Bermuda High slowly starts building well to our south… SST will start rising in the coming weeks in the southwest flow. I guess the subtropical high beat the NAO this year.





One note: Look at the Outer Banks of North Carolina – SST are near 70 F (20 C) !!. It will be a great spring/summer/fall on East Coast beaches in terms of warm ocean waters.

[Cambium]

**Warning**. You're eyes are not decieving you. The Calander does say January and this does say 60s!

From Upton for tomorrow(Friday)

NYC METRO COULD SEE SOME READINGS REACH THE LOWER 60S...WITH MOST OF THE AREA GETTING INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S. THIS IS SOME 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...WITH RECORD HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...DO NOT EXPECT RECORDS TO BE REACHED...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ISLIP...WHICH HAS A RECORD HIGH ON FRIDAY OF 59 SET IN 2002.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

**Warning**. You're eyes are not decieving you. The Calander does say January and this does say 60s!

From Upton for tomorrow(Friday)

NYC METRO COULD SEE SOME READINGS REACH THE LOWER 60S...WITH MOST OF THE AREA GETTING INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S. THIS IS SOME 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...WITH RECORD HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...DO NOT EXPECT RECORDS TO BE REACHED...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ISLIP...WHICH HAS A RECORD HIGH ON FRIDAY OF 59 SET IN 2002.

The reason Islip's record is so low is their records only go back to the mid 1980s. Most of the other weather stations in the tri-state have their record high for tomorrow being in 1974, though Central Park's of 69 actually occurred back in 1916!

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Although the strong subtropical ridge off the south Atlantic coast and the trough in the center of the USA is helping to give the East Coast a mild winter – warmer than normal SST are also helping keep even marginal events mostly rain. Normally this time of year, SST off the New Jersey coast and south of Long Island should be around 42 – 44 F (6)…but this year SST are in the 48 – 49 F (8 – 9 C) range. In fact, because there has been so little arctic air and few strong cold fronts/arctic fronts, the Gulf Stream is a bit more north and west than it normally is in mid/late winter. If you look near 38 N/70 - 72 W, there is a growing area of near 60 F (14 – 16 C) SST. This area is less than 180 miles south of the Connecticut coast. So any even light east/southeast flow, brings nice mild subtropical air right over the Tri-State area.

In terms of pressure patterns…as we head into Feb, and the Bermuda High slowly starts building well to our south… SST will start rising in the coming weeks in the southwest flow. I guess the subtropical high beat the NAO this year.





One note: Look at the Outer Banks of North Carolina – SST are near 70 F (20 C) !!. It will be a great spring/summer/fall on East Coast beaches in terms of warm ocean waters.

Also a great breeding ground for more hurricanes

[ctwhitechin]

Agreed I don't want the ocean too warm, don't want another Irene this year, I like electricity

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

The reason Islip's record is so low is their records only go back to the mid 1980s. Most of the other weather stations in the tri-state have their record high for tomorrow being in 1974, though Central Park's of 69 actually occurred back in 1916!

That record of 69 F is actually pretty impressive for the Tri-State area when you think about it.

Stations well to our south in the deep subtropical portions of the Atlantic states are not all that much higher. I looked up NWS Columbia, SC just for a comparison: Columbia has a record January high of only 84 F. Not to say that's not warm – but I would have thought a station like Central Park would have a much cooler record by comparison.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

That record of 69 F is actually pretty impressive for the Tri-State area when you think about it.

Stations well to our south in the deep subtropical portions of the Atlantic states are not all that much higher. I looked up NWS Columbia, SC just for a comparison: Columbia has a record January high of only 84 F. Not to say that is not warm – but I wouldn’t have thought a station like Central Park had a much cooler record.

That 69 is the 2nd highest January reading EVER for Central Park though, I'm not clear the 84 is the same for Columbia, SC (highest is 72 set twice; on yesterday's date in 1950 and on Jan. 6, 2007).

I'm more impressed that it happened in 1916 (whether you believe in global warming or not, personally I fall into the "it's real but exaggerated" group, it's true that more record highs occurred in recent decades and more record lows long ago......now I'm sure some of it is a bigger "heat island" effect today, but not trying to have that debate).

Also that there were apparently FOUR times this very week that had mid-high 60s historically, in 1916, 1950, 1967 and 1974.....maybe it's a "January thaw" rationale or something.....though CBS News Radio 88 noted this morning that we had 1-2' of snow fall one year ago today (my parents would talk about the 1967 "January heat wave" a lot because they got married during it).

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

Also a great breeding ground for more hurricanes

Not necessarily. Need 3 things to cooperate for Hurricanes.

Water Temps
Atmosphere temps
Wind

La Nina tends to suck the warmth out of the atmosphere so we're actually slightly cooler up there.

If there's wind shear it doesnt matter how warm either are. The wind will shread apart any development.

but yeah, no real cold air drove south long enough to cool down the Gulf so its pretty warm in there still.