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Old 02-11-2012, 07:11 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,282 posts, read 74,503,009 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
Looks like two reasons this was a "dud" this morning:

1) As you said, went further south than expected.

2) Didn't get cold enough, NWS shows that a lot more rain mixed in and it didn't stick well......
The "air" wasnt the factor. Dry air worked its way in.

In fact let me point out to everyone that surface temps mean nothing. All year it has snowed and sticked in the mid 30s and even 38-40 degrees!

Perfect example this time AGAIN. While not sticking on roadways because its too light, it is falling and sticking while temps are above 33 degrees.

Here's Bridgeports & Willimatic OBS. Snow fell while in the mid 30s!...Its all about the 850 layer and Intensity. And if it was falling harder it would start to stick on the roads. There's just not enough moisture up there.

One last point....models dont factor in evap cooling so when people see 36 degrees they automatically think rain...but snow cools the air so it will drop to 33 at least.

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Old 02-11-2012, 07:21 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
NWS is also giving 20% chance of a brief non-big flurry event late Sunday night.

Looks like two reasons this was a "dud" this morning:

1) As you said, went further south than expected.

2) Didn't get cold enough, NWS shows that a lot more rain mixed in and it didn't stick well......
I had to work a long day yesterday…so I kind of missed the hype for today’s threat of a “big snow” – lol. It rained last night, then a mix of rain and wet snow occurred overnight here on the southeast Connecticut coast. Right now we have about a T (trace) on some grassy surfaces…but the road, driveway, sidewalks…etc are just wet. Looking at the radar it looks like it’s just about over. I would say between 0 and a trace of snow fell.

I agree it was a “dud” for the reasons you mention...but let me just add another: Typically, when we have a mild winter in the Tri-State area (like this year)...the media and weather forecasters (even NWS at times) start what I call “reaching”: By mid February – they often start looking for that 99 yard pass with 0.2 seconds left in the game. Often, the worst weather forecasts of the whole year are in late winter. On Thursday night I was watching the new guy on Channel 8 (Steve something). I thought to myself, that he was “assuming” that everything would fall into place at just the right time to get the 2 to 4 inches he was forecasting. True, everything he said was “possible”...but the odds were very low that it would all come together at just the right time. Yet, for the sake of a media blitz, they try to spin up anything they can. Trust me...from now to mid March...is when the fun starts with the media and the “threat” of snow.

Also, we can’t discount that “solar angle” from beating up winter a little more each day.
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Old 02-11-2012, 09:17 AM
 
Location: Republic of New England
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hmmm i dont see any snow on the ground here in New Britain... those poor winter lovers lol
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Old 02-11-2012, 09:26 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,242 posts, read 18,717,750 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
The "air" wasnt the factor. Dry air worked its way in.
Did you mean the "air" was the factor? Anyway, good point though, I've seen it snow and stick even around 40-degrees.
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Old 02-11-2012, 04:42 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,282 posts, read 74,503,009 times
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Thank God I'm not a meteorologist. I would have to try to explain what happens with each storm either way. LOL

I like the "look out your window for weather" concept, but holy cow, models are pure garbage this year. We cant even mention storms 2 days out now?

Mother nature wins. Mother nature has last laugh.


Orange line is the track it took, dashed line is where its going. It stayed too far East! Why did the models pick up other storms 2 weeks in advance but couldnt get this one right until 24hrs before?? I HAVE NO CLUE.

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Old 02-11-2012, 04:47 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,282 posts, read 74,503,009 times
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*Self Reminder*

In this post of mine on Feb. 7th I mentioned it would probably be a non event again. The GFS showed exactly what happened today. It showed nothing while other models showed something. Then GFS went towards the other models and ALL models showed the Low closer to the coast with snow happening. So thats when we all thought accumulating snow.

So its interesting the GFS had it right 3-5 days before, then wrong 2-3 days before.

http://www.city-data.com/forum/22877847-post4041.html
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Old 02-12-2012, 06:10 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,282 posts, read 74,503,009 times
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Real feel temps (looks normal to me except for Northern Maine) and Highs in 3 days. Back up we go to Mid/Upper 40s.


Last edited by Cambium; 02-12-2012 at 06:38 AM..
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Old 02-12-2012, 09:00 AM
 
Location: Tippecanoe County, Indiana
26,372 posts, read 46,209,981 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Real feel temps (looks normal to me except for Northern Maine) and Highs in 3 days. Back up we go to Mid/Upper 40s.
I don't understand why highs are forecasted warmer in the Northeast than the Midwest when 850 temps aloft are the same? I checked the 6Z today and it still supports a stormier colder pattern in the mid range.
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Old 02-12-2012, 10:41 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,282 posts, read 74,503,009 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
I don't understand why highs are forecasted warmer in the Northeast than the Midwest when 850 temps aloft are the same? I checked the 6Z today and it still supports a stormier colder pattern in the mid range.
Great question I'd like to know too. I'm pretty sure winds have something to do with that. NorthEast will be under SouthWest winds with Ridge building again & MidWest might get North Winds from Canada..

As far as temps..this is pretty much whats been happening with the trough. Just lift that Purple Polar Jet a little North into Canada and buckle it down towards the West ..

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Old 02-13-2012, 07:37 PM
 
Location: Republic of New England
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any updates... seems to be mild once again.. So sorry for the winter lovers. oh cry me a melting river LOL
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