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Old 02-21-2012, 07:38 AM
 
Location: Live in NY State, (sometimes) work in CT
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Interesting article:

Window for Snow this Season is Slowly Closing - weather.com

But I don't "get" some of it.....like how does Boston and NYC have a bigger percentage of the "snow season" left than Buffalo?
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Old 02-21-2012, 10:19 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
Interesting article:

Window for Snow this Season is Slowly Closing - weather.com

But I don't "get" some of it.....like how does Boston and NYC have a bigger percentage of the "snow season" left than Buffalo?
It's a percentage of it's OWN snowfall that usually falls from this point until winter ends. Comparing total seasonal snowfalls is irrelevant to that data. It's the percentage that is left to fall.

You don't understand the data. It's a percentage of the TOTAL SNOWFALL that city gets that's left.

Buffalo is front loaded due to lake erie and gets most of their snow early in the winter because of Lake Erie. It ends up freezing over later on the season most winters and a lack of temperature difference means less snow in March. Therefore Buffalo gets a higher percentage of it's OWN snowfall earlier in the season. Buffalo still averages WAY more snowfall from now until winter ends than nyc obviously, but that's irrelevant to the percentage of total seasonal snowfall that is left to fall
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Old 02-21-2012, 11:30 AM
 
Location: Live in NY State, (sometimes) work in CT
6,628 posts, read 8,352,318 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikelizard860 View Post
It's a percentage of it's OWN snowfall that usually falls from this point until winter ends. Comparing total seasonal snowfalls is irrelevant to that data. It's the percentage that is left to fall.

You don't understand the data. It's a percentage of the TOTAL SNOWFALL that city gets that's left.

Buffalo is front loaded due to lake erie and gets most of their snow early in the winter because of Lake Erie. It ends up freezing over later on the season most winters and a lack of temperature difference means less snow in March. Therefore Buffalo gets a higher percentage of it's OWN snowfall earlier in the season. Buffalo still averages WAY more snowfall from now until winter ends than nyc obviously, but that's irrelevant to the percentage of total seasonal snowfall that is left to fall
Yes, that makes sense, I got it now! That would also explain why Chicago had a lower % than NY or Boston.
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Old 02-21-2012, 12:37 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arm&Hammer View Post
^ we shall see...I have faith winter wont be knocking on spring


Trust me….there are only two things you have to remember in the forecasting of weather in the I-95 corridor (Washington to Boston):

1. Hype.

2. Weather forecasters who live for the 90 days of winter and refuse to let winter die each March.



Each year in late Feb/early March local weathercasters and the media outlets try to convince themselves (and anyone else who listen) that there is a “threat of a real snowstorm until early May….or that they see an “extreme pattern developing”….or an oldie but a goodie is that “things could change fast”. Yea…and I saw Elvis yesterday in Central Park (lol).

We might see a dusting –few inches of snow in March at some point – but winter 2011/2012 is basically over, esp when you look at the projected pattern in early-mid March:


AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Weekly Pattern Breakdown into Mid-March (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-pattern-breakdown-into-midmarch/61734 - broken link)

AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Ontario Snow Threat Friday (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/ontario-snow-threat-friday/61837 - broken link)



but don’t worry…local weather forecasters and snow fans will keep beating the dead horse until those first 75 F days of April. If you like entertainment, late winter/early spring can be better than Jerry Springer TV if you watch the winter hype.
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Old 02-21-2012, 02:04 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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I have received the daily snowstorms for March from NWS. Here's how it looks for Danbury, CT in the month of March.

Using JUST snowstorms over 4". There were too many with 4" or less.

In the Last 11 years there have been 9. Almost once a year in March Danbury gets plowable snows.

March 14, 1993 sticks out like a sore thumb with a foot and a half.
In March 1996 there were 10 days that snow fell (including the lesser amounts)
In March 2005 there were 9 days that snow fell (including the lesser amounts)

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Old 02-21-2012, 02:27 PM
 
Location: Live in NY State, (sometimes) work in CT
6,628 posts, read 8,352,318 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
I have received the daily snowstorms for March from NWS. Here's how it looks for Danbury, CT in the month of March.

Using JUST snowstorms over 4". There were too many with 4" or less.

In the Last 11 years there have been 9. Almost once a year in March Danbury gets plowable snows.

March 14, 1993 sticks out like a sore thumb with a foot and a half.
In March 1996 there were 10 days that snow fell (including the lesser amounts)
In March 2005 there were 9 days that snow fell (including the lesser amounts)
March is a month where there can be a big difference between Danbury/Hartford vs. Bridgeport/New Haven/NYC though. I'm sure some of those <4" snows (and maybe even a few of the >4" snows) were rain or wet snow in the latter.
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Old 02-21-2012, 06:43 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
March is a month where there can be a big difference between Danbury/Hartford vs. Bridgeport/New Haven/NYC though. I'm sure some of those <4" snows (and maybe even a few of the >4" snows) were rain or wet snow in the latter.
Yes..big difference along the coast but I think most of us forget March snow because how fast it melts. Afterall,....we do mow the lawn in April.

But Winter doesnt end until April 1st. It does snow in March but obviously not disruptive or lingering most of the time.

Here's Bridgeport BDR. Does anyone remember just 3 years ago??? A foot fell Merrit Northwards . http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/Storm...m03022009.html

Highlighted is all the 4" or more snowstorms.

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Old 02-22-2012, 07:17 AM
 
Location: Live in NY State, (sometimes) work in CT
6,628 posts, read 8,352,318 times
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Interesting how it between 1997 and 2003 there wasn't a measurable snowfall in March, I don't believe there's even a period of more than 2 years like that otherwise on that chart. Did the 5" NYC snowfall on March 22, 1998 (the only snowfall over 1" for CPK for 1997-98 winter) miss CT I wonder? I think there may be some missing data in that period, because I'm pretty sure the "dud" of March 2001 (where they predicted 2 feet + for the entire Northeast and many businesses closed in anticipation and everyone only got a couple of inches) produced something measurable in BDR.
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Old 02-22-2012, 08:28 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
Interesting how it between 1997 and 2003 there wasn't a measurable snowfall in March, I don't believe there's even a period of more than 2 years like that otherwise on that chart. Did the 5" NYC snowfall on March 22, 1998 (the only snowfall over 1" for CPK for 1997-98 winter) miss CT I wonder? I think there may be some missing data in that period, because I'm pretty sure the "dud" of March 2001 (where they predicted 2 feet + for the entire Northeast and many businesses closed in anticipation and everyone only got a couple of inches) produced something measurable in BDR.


...and you’ll see plenty of that in the next few weeks now that real winter is over in the Tri-State area.


Also, I agree about coastal vs. high elevation (Danbury) or far north stations in the Tri-State area: Look at the graph above of March snowfall at NWS Bridgeport – look how many of them were in the range of 0.1 to 0.9 inches. Anything less than even 2.5 inches is really nothing. Note how in the last 65 years – there were only 7 times there was a fall of 6 inches or greater (the createra for a winter storm watch). The graph above really shows what I said before: We might see a few inches one morning, a dusting here and there...but a true snowstorm with 6/10/12 inches of snow is a long, long shot. True winter is over in the Tri-State area, esp. coastal areas.

Look at it another way...if one wanted to hype it in the opposite direction....there has been 8 times that a daily high of 80 F (or higher ) has occured in March at Danbury. So there is more of a chance of seeing an 80 F day in Danbury in March.... than a snowstorm of greater than 6 inches along coastal areas of the Tri-State area:


DANBURY (061762)
Extremes
Highest Daily Maximum Temperature (degrees F)
Days: 3/1 - 3/31
Length of period: 1 day
Years: 1937-2012

Rank Value Ending Date
1 92 3/31/1998
2 86 3/30/1998
3 85 3/28/1998
4 83 3/27/1998
5 82 3/29/1998
6 80 3/30/1986, 3/30/1977, 3/22/1938



of course you’ll never see that kind of spin by those that hype winter
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Old 02-22-2012, 08:53 AM
 
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Statistically you are not correct Wave--- since a disproportionate frequency occurred in one calendar year (and over one week in 1998). Remove that anomaly and there are only 4 80 degree readings in March vs. 10 snowfalls of at least 6" in BridgeportThat said it isn't likely, but the storm of the century (1993) did happen in mid March so it can't be completely ignored.
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