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Old 02-27-2012, 02:02 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
25,369 posts, read 13,675,412 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Surprise.......And the Euro has turned to rain. Not only that but shows practically little precip.(.50")

Its light Snow to light Rain to light Snow north of 84. Albany NY stays all snow and more of it (12-15")
Just to prove what I saw...

Here's the snowtotal from the last Euro. notice the 3-6" line moved north. 6+ is northern CT before a mix on and off.. Albany area in bullseye zone.

Most of the snow you see in southern CT is from the start which should accumulate before changing to all rain.

3 days to go..

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Old 02-27-2012, 04:20 PM
 
Location: Live in NY State, (sometimes) work in CT
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From OKX Facebook page less than an hour ago:

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fb...&type=1&ref=nf

If this is to be believed, looks like less than 1" of snow only during the first half of Wed. for those south of I-84......
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Old 02-27-2012, 04:28 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
From OKX Facebook page less than an hour ago:

Wall Photos | Facebook

If this is to be believed, looks like less than 1" of snow only during the first half of Wed. for those south of I-84......
…another classic late winter Tri-State situation where hope, hype, spin, and fantasy…can’t overcome math, geography, latitude, and that “solar angle”.

Now, as to the storm coming this weekend....if the low can swing far enough out to sea...and a massive cold high can stay over southeast Canada, and the moisture is in just the right place, at the right time...ah who are we kidding.....
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Old 02-27-2012, 05:42 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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This liquid data is based on the last GFS.

.68" - Windsor (mostly rain)
.56"- Danbury (mostly rain)
.85"- Worchester, MA (1011') - half rain, half snow (3-5")
.83" - Springfield, MA Mostly snow (4-6")
1.07" - Concord, NH - All Snow (11-13")
1.10"- Albany, NY - Mostly snow (7-10")

It's going to be nice to see a major snowstorm somewhere in the NorthEast finally.

And here's Uptons first look. lol


Last edited by Cambium; 02-27-2012 at 05:50 PM..
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Old 02-27-2012, 05:57 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Upton doesnt want to flip flop!
Models driving them nuts too I guess. LOL

Good technical stuff in here to understand whats happening.

WEDNESDAY`S EVENT...MODEL GUIDANCE HERE APPEARS EXTREMELY CONSISTENT AND WITH LITTLE SPREAD IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN - THAT DOES NOT FAVOR SNOW FOR THE OKX CWA. BASICALLY LOOKING AT A WARM FRONT/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND WHILE PCPN STARTS AS SNOW...WARM NOSE ALOFT SUGGESTS A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN. IN ADDITION...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOSS OF ICE NUCLEI BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...KEPT SFC TEMPS CLOSE TO MOS DEW POINTS WHICH RESULTS IN ABOVE FREEZING. THUS...HAVE TAILORED AMOUNTS BACK SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 3 INCHES IN ORANGE COUNTY. THESE AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH...BUT WANT TO AVOID FORECAST FLIP-FLOP.

WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION WED NGT WITH WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS TOWARD MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...IT SEEMS VERY
UNLIKELY THAT ANY COLD COULD WORK IT`S WAY BACK IN. INLAND NAM
SOUNDINGS...WHICH ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER IN THE LOW LEVELS SUGGEST SOME ICE POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST INCLUDED SOME MIX.
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Old 02-27-2012, 08:43 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Latest NAM model snow total through 1am Thursday. WOW. 8 inches north of I-84 in CT. 4-6 north of Merrit even down to coast near Milford. Pure signs of Cold Air Damming on this run.

Lets see if other models follow suit now. Poor Upton will have to flop back. LOL

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Old 02-27-2012, 08:55 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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On a serious note I feel I should bring up, during a CAD event (cold air damming) where the cold is locked at the surface and warm air filters in at a layer above, ICE is a concern. Lets hope that wont be the case for anyone.
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Old 02-27-2012, 09:01 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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Instead of looking at snow totals only with the models at this point is good to look at the entire atmosphere. Here's how it looks for NYC, BOSTON, & MANCHESTER,CT for 5am Thursday.

Even though its showing snow totals for NYC its actually Rain...but Snow for Boston and Manchester. This is from the last NAM model only.

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Old 02-27-2012, 09:21 PM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
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One last one using the last NAM update cause that was just crazy.

Heres the precip dots for Windsor and Boston. Notice Windsor with sleet and Ice involved but notice Boston all snow 1.15qpf. 10-14"



Use this link to change location on left hand side. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cg...ent&field=prec
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Old 02-28-2012, 05:31 AM
 
Location: CT - close to coast
25,369 posts, read 13,675,412 times
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WINTER STORM WATCHES UP FOR ALL 8 COUNTIES.

Heads up on the commutes guys!

FAIRFIELD:MIDDLESEX:NEW HAVEN:NEW LONDON:TOLLAND:WINDHAM:HARTFORD
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...ALONG
WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* TIMING...SNOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST... RESULTING IN LESS MIXED PRECIPITATION AND MORE SNOW.

* IMPACTS...A WINTRY MIX..PREDOMINANTLY SNOW...IS EXPECTED. POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES AND ACCUMULATING SNOW...SLEET AND ICE COULD LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL. THE TIMING OF THIS WINTRY MIX COULD IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE...AND SHOULD IMPACT THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

LITCHFIELD:
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE.
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