Connecticut Weather (New Haven, Norfolk: comparable, live, stats)
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There's a weather alert this morning for wildfires:
Special Weather Statement
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
101800-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
603 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012
A DRY AIR MASS WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO CREATE CONDITIONS MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 30 PERCENT BY
LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
The way the pattern looks at this point – I have a feeling brush fires are going to be an issue up and down the East Coast this year. I saw on the news that in North Florida and Georgia, already there are moderate forest fires breaking out. Today, should be moderately cool (45 – 48 F), and then we head right into another week of warm temps. This is the time of year when the building heat in the subtropical south Atlantic states has a big influence on the temp further up the coast, all it takes is a good south wind - and the warm air floods the Tri-State area; By Tue/Wed the heat really starts building in the subtropics – 80’s will reach South Carolina and 77 F in VA/Washington DC.
Also, based on the newest ECMF – winter/cold weather fans hope of a below normal or cooler late spring/summer seems like a long shot: It looks no below normal temps right through late June, and summer (July – Sept) looks to be normal or above:
AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Long Range Computer Model Outlook for Spring and Summer (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-computer-model-outlook-for-spring-and-summer/62585 - broken link)
Status:
"The great northern Summer has arrived!"
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Location: Madison, Wisconsin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007
The way the pattern looks at this point – I have a feeling brush fires are going to be an issue up and down the East Coast this year. I saw on the news that in North Florida and Georgia, already there are moderate forest fires breaking out. Today, should be moderately cool (45 – 48 F), and then we head right into another week of warm temps. This is the time of year when the building heat in the subtropical south Atlantic states has a big influence on the temp further up the coast, all it takes is a good south wind - and the warm air floods the Tri-State area; By Tue/Wed the heat really starts building in the subtropics – 80’s will reach South Carolina and 77 F in VA/Washington DC.
Also, based on the newest ECMF – winter/cold weather fans hope of a below normal or cooler late spring/summer seems like a long shot: It looks no below normal temps right through late June, and summer (July – Sept) looks to be normal or above:
AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Long Range Computer Model Outlook for Spring and Summer (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-computer-model-outlook-for-spring-and-summer/62585 - broken link)
The long hot season is closing in on us...
Ya, I'm really going to believe the long range computer models. Guess what, the La Nina event is now over in the Pacific per the latest SSTs. That does not explain the current weather pattern across most of North America that has had extreme persistence for a long period of time. Once again, averages are thrown out the window. Some might explain this current pattern away, but I've studied metorological trends for decades and have never seen patter setup like this for such a long period of time.
Ya, I'm really going to believe the long range computer models. Guess what, the La Nina event is now over in the Pacific per the latest SSTs. That does not explain the current weather pattern across most of North America that has had extreme persistence for a long period of time. Once again, averages are thrown out the window. Some might explain this current pattern away, but I've studied metorological trends for decades and have never seen patter setup like this for such a long period of time.
Yup. The patterns I recognized past 5 years was every 6-12weeks a change would happen. 6 being really short and 12 being the longest. So if we were Hot and dry like clockwork it would change from when it started being hot and dry to either average or below average temps and precip.
What has happened past 6 months has thrown me off.
Thats kind why I said "2nd half winter" because the above average started in Fall so I figured the next change would have been mid January. That was wrong obviously.
I'm relating the current pattern to what happened in Russia couple summers ago where High pressure dominated and brought massive heat waves and fires all summer for months on end. How far is this rubber band stretching?
This was Posted 6 days ago. I'm impressed with the models now getting the temps right. Gees. guess they do better with warm air than cold.
We had 1 60s day this past week and next week it will be more common. With I think Tuesday being the warmest day of week.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
So this time of year I start looking for extreme on the other end. We wont see 70s this week but we'll probably see 60 a couple times. Then after this weekend, next week features more 50s-60s as common.
This was the warmest day on the latest Euro12z. Now we'll start to see the coast be cooler than inland because of the cooler water influence.
Wednesday March 13th. (Loong range, anything can change)
but I've studied metorological trends for decades and have never seen patter setup like this for such a long period of time.
I have! Do you remember 98-99?... I think nyc got 3 inches of snow for the entire season. It was the same pattern as this year Incredibly warm year just like this one with all the cold locked up in Alaska. Very rare for a such an anomolous pattern to stay entrenched for such a long period of time, but it does happen!
Long term seasonal forecasts have been PROVEN to have no more of percentage chance of being right than simply flipping a coin. They can't predict the weather out 7 days and people seriously even pay attention to a seasonal forecast?! Seasonal forecasts are a joke for the most part. It makes for good fiction reading though. lol Sort of like a fortune telling. It's entertainment.
Status:
"The great northern Summer has arrived!"
(set 20 days ago)
Location: Madison, Wisconsin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikelizard860
I have! Do you remember 98-99?... I think nyc got 3 inches of snow for the entire season. It was the same pattern as this year Incredibly warm year just like this one with all the cold locked up in Alaska. Very rare for a such an anomolous pattern to stay entrenched for such a long period of time, but it does happen!
98-99 was a strong La Nina winter with a strong cold event in the Pacific. This 11-12 winter featured a weak to moderate La Nina. I just don't see much of a correlation between the two winters. 11-12 has actually had a much longer warm streak than 98-99 strong event and this looks to continue indefinitely. Like I mentioned earlier, I have studied many analog years and this current pattern is nearly unprecedented for its overall warmth and lack of pattern change.
Location: Live in NY State, (sometimes) work in CT
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I think you guys mean 97-98......that winter in NYC has a record where the first 1" or more of snow fell on March 22 (5.0 inches.....only 0.5" fell before that all in January). Some other records from that winter:
1) First (and to date only) time ever that not even a trace fell in February.
2) Four days after that 5" snowfall followed an incredible 5 straight days of 80+ degree temperatures, including a tie (with 1945) of the monthly record of 86.
This year is frigid compared to that!
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