[Cambium]

Originally Posted by rajmelk

Cam--just noticed this mention for next week in the BOX narrative. Any comments on how realistic this is?

ECMWF CONTINUES TO OFFER A MORE AMPLIFIED TROF WITH COASTAL
REDEVELOPMENT S OF NEW ENG WHICH KEEPS STEADY PRECIP ACROSS SNE WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE N ZONES DURING THU AS COLDER
AIR IS DRAWN IN. THIS SOLUTION REMAINS AN OUTLIER SO WE DID NOT
FOLLOW THE ECMWF...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

Nice. Just got back from work..I'll check it out in couple hours. Thanks for posting this, it helped me.

Edit: actually re-reading that...They are saying the Euro is an outlier. Meaning the odd ball, innacurate solutions and not to be used. But obviously needs to be watched if other models go towards that solution.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Arm&Hammer

We should be getting some rain for the nexts 5 days from now... Mild and seasonal and I believe maybe 10 days from now the weather should get back to a lot of 60s and some 70s winter lovers here think I be complaining, no.. long as it's not below freezing during the day for this nexts 5 to 10 days from now.

Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 23. North wind between 8 and 14 mph.


Nice!!at least a little taste of winter still for you guys,..

[Cambium]

Amazing.. we were supposed to get at least .40" of rain tonight, now I'm only seeing less then .15". Latest GFS has it dry for another 5 days after tonight.

Looks like some firewood nights this week and I just remembered to bring the Lemon Plant inside.

Its too tough and risky to mention snow so I wont yet.

Trough continues to show up end of month. Quick warm up. Then maybe a deeper trough for beginning of April. Here's GFS long range with that deeper trough In April.

[Cambium]

NAM here is colder than the GFS. Coldest night of the week will be Monday Night. Waking up to mostly 20s(maybe teens above 1000'). Rest of nights should stay in 30s.

[Arm&Hammer]

Originally Posted by jp03

Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 23. North wind between 8 and 14 mph.


Nice!!at least a little taste of winter still for you guys,..

Oh, nice just in one day of the week of that little cold day and that depends where in connecticut, but my area may go far down to as 26-32 degrees...but in nexts 8 days from now should jump back to 60s and 70s again

[andthentherewere3]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Amazing.. we were supposed to get at least .40" of rain tonight, now I'm only seeing less then .15". Latest GFS has it dry for another 5 days after tonight.

Yes, that's what I was referring to yesterday, the forecast just continues to be mostly dry with only the possibility of light showers Wed/Thurs. When is the last time we had a real rain event?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

Yes, that's what I was referring to yesterday, the forecast just continues to be mostly dry with only the possibility of light showers Wed/Thurs. When is the last time we had a real rain event?

Based on the records that I've kept here. None in March. February 24th was last real rainfal.

2/15/2012 0.04
2/16/2012 0.15
2/17/2012 0.04
2/24/2012 1" (some thunder lightning reports)
2/29/2012 0.36


3/1/2012 - 0.18
3/2/2012 - 0.12
3/3/2012 - 0.21
3/8/2012 - 0.08
3/13/2012 - 0.16
3/25/2012 - 0.13


Apparently the driest March on record for Sikorsky Airport area.

Blogs 12 Connecticut » Blog Archive » Record Warmth Overshadows Extremely Dry Weather Pattern

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Arm&Hammer

Oh, nice just in one day of the week of that little cold day and that depends where in connecticut, but my area may go far down to as 26-32 degrees...but in nexts 8 days from now should jump back to 60s and 70s again

Its your time right now warm weather fan...its your time, no doubt.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Arm&Hammer

Oh, nice just in one day of the week of that little cold day and that depends where in connecticut, but my area may go far down to as 26-32 degrees...but in nexts 8 days from now should jump back to 60s and 70s again

As far as any cool temps…Monday night looks like the only night I can see the risk of a frost in the next 10 days for most of the Tri-State area; Lows on Monday night should fall into the middle 20’s in northern/central CT/NW NJ/and the Hudson Valley…while lows should fall into the upper 20’s low 30’s southward through the I-95 corridor (Trenton, NYC, Stamford, New Haven, New London…etc). Beyond Monday night – the weather picture looks rather quiet and very tame: , another rather long period of WAA (warm air advection) starting on Tuesday, weak cold fronts, and daily highs in the 55 to 60 F range and nights in the 35 – 40 F range. We’ll be slightly above normal again for temps for the final week of March, then perhaps 10 F or more above normal the first week of April.

As to the dry conditions in March mentioned by andthentherewere3 …I think they are 1000% correct: Red flag warnings for the increased risk of brush fires will increasingly be an issue as the hot season builds up and down the East Coast. NWS Bridgeport has recived only about 18% of normal rainfall this March, and other NWS stations up and down the East Coast have been just as dry. Rainfall this week will be very insignificant, and next week (1st week of April), looks warmer and drier once again. With thr tropical cyclone season still 4 months away and that massive subtropical Bermuda High getting stronger every day…I see fire, heat, drought, …etc as a rather large part of the spring/summer/ and maybe even fall.

Here is the latest maps out to the 9th and 10 day. TWC shows 60’s and even 70’s right up the East Coast into the Tri-State area (normal highs the first week of April are 53 – 58 F for area NWS stations).







So we seem well into a pattern of a drier and warmer than normal spring at this point:




.

[Cambium]

Working on a little project right now with some down time. Since Bridgeport, CT doesnt have actual monthly temps accessible(yet) I'm using NYC.

Here are the actually average temps for the months. One incredible thing I noticed was in the late 1800s how we were below normal sooo many times. Blue = Below Normal. Red = Above Normal.

Also note: Last 11 months have had above normal mean temp so March will make it 12 straight months!

I'm going to put this all into a graph.