03-28-2012, 05:29 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Reputation: 16619
GFS has nothing except for...Clouds. lol but cool.
NAM continues its craziness.(5 in a row!) I will hold off on calling my sister near Buffalo to tell her this model shows a foot of snow for her. 4-5" into Western CT
Not sure what Euro showed today. Havent checked.
HPC Discussion. Interior most likely means Northern CT Northward to them.
FARTHER NORTH...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER
OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE ANCHORING
SURFACE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discuss...hp?disc=pmdspd
Last edited by Cambium; 03-28-2012 at 05:37 PM ..
Reason: Added Link, tried to resize pic smaller
03-28-2012, 06:09 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Just realized... We're 2 days away from this event. LOLOL!! We do have track agreement folks. It should pass
just South of NYC.
NWS Albany which serves Litchfield Mentions the CMC is further north then all models (which would guarantee Rain) and slower but disregard it.
National Weather Service Text Product Display
" MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY NIGHT.
ONE EXCEPTION IS THE CMC THIS MODEL HAS BEEN DISCARDED.
THE NAM THIS MODEL INDICATES MOST IF NOT ALL THIS WOULD FALL AS SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE COLUMN.
THE GFS AND ECMWF THINKING AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...A COATING AT MOST IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ."
Even Boston now mentioning a mix possible. LOL They are all playing it conservative and so they should I guess being its almost April.
03-28-2012, 06:17 PM
Location: Indiana Uplands
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Reputation: 19549
It's getting quite dry up here in NH. We are down 2.5 inches of precipitation from average and quickly falling further behind. The GFS and Euro don't show much in the way of widespread precip activity for the next 2 weeks. Red Flag warnings have already been hoisted within the past week. Hopefully the pattern will just stay cooler so we don't have the warm/windy/dry combination all at once again.
03-28-2012, 06:24 PM
Location: Republic of New England
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Reputation: 199
70s are possible for next monday... yay
03-28-2012, 06:51 PM
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read
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Reputation: 2157
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Arm&Hammer
70s are possible for next monday... yay
I was just ready to say something like “I’m not sure about 70’s this coming week…but I do think that most of the area will see widespread highs in the 60’s F”…then I saw the newest AFD that just came out. It looks like you are right:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
755 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THEN...MODELS DIVERGE ON HANDLING OF A SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. ECMWF AND GEM ARE WETTER...TRACKING A SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN SOUTH OF THE
BRINGING SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT . GFS IS SOMEWHAT QUICKER AND DIVES THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...SHUTTING OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY. MODELS SAG A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD BE DRY WITH BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINING TO THE NORTH. CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION AND DEVELOPS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY AS H5 TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WARMING INTO THE 60S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SOME 70S READINGS LIKELY IN INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
Despite the development of an upper-level low over southeastern Canada in the next few days, the
pattern will remain a progressive one . This means that the few weather systems that reach us
will come and go very quickly. So it looks like some rain showers move through the Tri-State area early Thursday, then skies clear by midday, with highs in the low 50’s. Friday looks sunny and dry and Sat might see a passing shower late. Then drier and warming weather will again move through highs into the low 60’s by Sunday and maybe even 70’s early next week. The pattern remains to be on tap for warmer than normal temps as we head into April based on the GFS 7 day mean ensembles; Look at the GFS seven-day mean temps through next Wed (April 4th)…only the PNW (again) will see cooler than normal temps.
The rest of the USA will see normal or above normal temps:
.
03-28-2012, 07:32 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,516 posts, read
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Reputation: 16619
What, nobody mentioning what CPC is showing? I guess because its showing cooler then normal temps we shouldnt believe it.
Remember all the Reds over us all winter long? lol
Climate Prediction Center - 6 to 10 Day Outlook
03-28-2012, 08:13 PM
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read
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Reputation: 2157
Thunderstorm here!
03-28-2012, 08:37 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,516 posts, read
75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by
wavehunter007
Thunderstorm here!
I feel like the storms are outpacing my radar checks. WTF. lol. Arent the temps like 40s or 50s? How is there lightning and thunder so many times today. Crazy squall line over Long Island and Atlantic heading towards ocean.
03-29-2012, 04:48 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,516 posts, read
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Reputation: 16619
Quick Morning Update.
Track is agreed coming from The Rockies into Ohio Valley and Out the NJ coast.
GFS suprisingly went north a little from being too far south and went cooler. Giving northern CT 4-6" of snow.
NAM went a little further North with the latest giving a mix and/or 1-2" to CT and 8-10" of snow to southern Vermont and Upstate NY.
NOGAPS is warmer then the rest.
HPC/NOAA Places the Storm slightly south then the NAM.
HPC's Short Range Forecasts - Terrain Background
03-29-2012, 04:58 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,516 posts, read
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Reputation: 16619
Upton (for 4 Southern Counties). They say all Rain but cold Saturday.A STORM SYSTEM AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE TRI-STATE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK...IN WHAT WILL BE A COLD RAIN . AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT . HIGHS SAT THOUGH MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S WITH THE CLOUD COVER...RAIN...AND ONSHORE FLOW. NWS Boston: (For 3 Northern Counties, not Litchfield). Dyno cooling, wet bulb would be wet snow but March surface is warm. Light snow accumulations higher terrain of CT.FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... FEEL THE BANDING OF PRECIP PSBL THRU SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING DOWN TO THE WET BULB WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE IF NOT BELOW FRZG. ACCORDINGLY...WOULD ANTICIPATE A WET SNOW BUT SIMULTANEOUSLY WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH A VERY WARM SFC /AS WE ALL ARE AWARE...MARCH HAS BEEN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPS/. HAVE KEPT SNOWFALL AMNTS LIGHT AND SITUATED MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND WRN MA INTO SRN NH...PSBLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CT . CANT RULE OUT SNOW ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA...BUT ACCUMS MAY BE DIFFICULT PRECIP TYPES LIKELY TO BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER IN NWS Albany (Litchfield) - Supports Snow in higher elevations. Time for Rain to change to Snow just an inch or two at most.THERE IS SOME DECENT FRONTOGENESIS...VERTICAL MOTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY. IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT UNTIL THE COLUMN COOLS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY WET SNOW ON GRASSY AREASAND MAY BE BARELY A DUSTING IN VALLEYS AND AN INCH OR TWO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
Last edited by Cambium; 03-29-2012 at 05:09 AM ..
Reason: Added Albany
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Most Common Occupations - Sales and related occupations (%)
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Most Common Occupations - Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Construction and extraction occupations (%)
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People in Group quarters - Nursing homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospitals/wards, hospices, and schools for the handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospitals/wards and hospices for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospices or homes for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Military hospitals or wards for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Other hospitals or wards for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospitals or wards for drug/alcohol abuse (%)
People in Group quarters - Mental (Psychiatric) hospitals or wards (%)
People in Group quarters - Schools, hospitals, or wards for the mentally retarded (%)
People in Group quarters - Schools, hospitals, or wards for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Institutions for the deaf (%)
People in Group quarters - Institutions for the blind (%)
People in Group quarters - Orthopedic wards and institutions for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in general hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in military hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Juvenile institutions (%)
People in Group quarters - Long-term care (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for abused, dependent, and neglected children (%)
People in Group quarters - Residential treatment centers for emotionally disturbed children (%)
People in Group quarters - Training schools for juvenile delinquents (%)
People in Group quarters - Short-term care, detention or diagnostic centers for delinquent children (%)
People in Group quarters - Type of juvenile institution unknown (%)
People in Group quarters - Noninstitutionalized population (%)
People in Group quarters - College dormitories (includes college quarters off campus) (%)
People in Group quarters - Military quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - On base (%)
People in Group quarters - Barracks, unaccompanied personnel housing (UPH), (Enlisted/Officer), ;and similar group living quarters for military personnel (%)
People in Group quarters - Transient quarters for temporary residents (%)
People in Group quarters - Military ships (%)
People in Group quarters - Group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes or halfway houses for drug/alcohol abuse (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally retarded (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Other group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Religious group quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - Dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Agriculture workers' dormitories on farms (%)
People in Group quarters - Job Corps and vocational training facilities (%)
People in Group quarters - Other workers' dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Crews of maritime vessels (%)
People in Group quarters - Other nonhousehold living situations (%)
People in Group quarters - Other noninstitutional group quarters (%)
Residents speaking English at home (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking other language at home (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Foreign born (%)
Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed in own incorporated business (%)
Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Federal government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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