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The 12Z GFS now shows next to nothing for southern NH for the next week. Ridge rebuilds in the Atantic at 1028mb. That is a bad sign. Will it turn around anytime soon? Not likely based on the previous several months of temperature departures. Dry ground heats up much faster than moist ground.
High Pressures seem stronger than models and everyone thinks. Just sandblasting away any precip.
Just wait until the real heat really builds in, not only will the drought escalate faster but so will the fires.
In case you're wondering, there are storms entering the U.S, only thing is they are going West of us up into Canada or just breaking apart coming across. Thats the Jet stream pattern and actually has been since November where storms are going West of us into Canada.
This is the only image I can find to show as an example. From NWS Colorado. Strong Low entered CA yesterday and will move NorthEast from there.
I think so too. Considering the latitude in the Tri-State/Middle Atlantic region (42 – 37 North) a dry winter/spring and wet summer/early fall should be more common. I saw this article a few years ago about the rhythm of annual precip in the NYC/Middle Atlantic on the NYC Weather Station site: I thought it was an excellent explanation of how dry summers are rare (and dry winters/spings like this one should be more common). Rather than try to summarize the whole thing I pasted it below:
The silent roar of the East Coast summer monsoon.
In terms of precipitation, the Middle Atlantic/NYC area is climatically exceptional . The anomaly is… that from about 90 W (east of the Mississippi River) to south of 43 N (south of around Boston), situated on a large continent, and in the lower middle latitudes…warm season precipitation (May through mid October), is not much different than cold season precipitation (late October through early April) on average. This is quite strange - since it’s well known for monsoon circulation’s to develop on the eastern sides of large continents like East Asia (monsoon - seasonal reversal of winds and distinct seasonal precipitation pattern). This means that the cold months are dry (northerly winds, dry/stable air masses, cold high pressure) and the hot months are wet (southerly winds, humid/unstable air masses, warm low pressure). In central/southern China, Korea, and Japan, which are located at approximately the same latitude as the Eastern United States (about 36 to 42 N latitude or Virginia to Connecticut) … this is exactly the case; Beijing, China (41 north in East China) has only 0.7 inches of precipitation in the three coldest months (Dec-Feb)…while it has 15.8 inches of precipitation in the three warmest summer months (Jun – Aug).
In the far Eastern United States the pattern of precipitation has a much weaker monsoonal character…on average. “On average” is the key word. For example, Hartford, CT (also 41 north in Eastern US) receives 10.2 inches of precipitation in the three coldest months…and 12 inches of precipitation in the three warmest months. So while both Hartford and Beijing are wetter in deep summer and show a monsoonal pattern - the difference is not nearly as great in Hartford as in Beijing. One of the theories as to why there is often less of a monsoon character to precipitation in the far Eastern United States is geography and prevailing synoptic patterns; The smaller size of the North American continent, a meridionally oriented mountain system, and (in winter at least) more numerous mid-latitude storms… tends to disrupt the normal monsoonal pattern (dry winters…wet summers) to precipitation that would normally develop at this latitude on the eastern side of continent.
However, in some years, a strong monsoonal pattern to precipitation can be recognized in the far eastern United States: The last such year when a monsoonal precipitation pattern developed (for a while, at least) was late spring/summer-fall/winter 200:
May/June 2004 where dry with mostly a westerly/northerly flow across the East Coast… then in late June, a southerly flow suddenly strengthened: From early July to late September rainfall surged across the far eastern states, including the Atlantic states. The combination of a southerly flow of humid tropical air with high dew points…hot/humid days with convective storms…and tropical moisture from the Gulf and tropical Atlantic being drawn into the mainland…all combined make summer 2004 “hot and wet across the far eastern United States. In less than 90 days…most stations east of the Mississippi and south of Massachusetts, reported 17 to 24 –inches of rain! Bridgeport, CT recorded 17.7 inches of precipitation in less than 3 months! Stations like Newark, NJ and Baltimore, MD received even more – up to 24-inches of rain… rivaling anything one would see in Pusan, Osaka, or Tokyo at the time of the summer monsoon. Then in mid October, a dry cool westerly/northerly flow took over quickly and precipitation amounts plunged (the Bermuda High started the normal retreat eastward). The remaining portion of October, November and December were quite dry at many NWS eastern stations. NWS Bridgeport, CT reported just 6.89 inches of precipitation in October, November, and December combined. The East Coast monsoon showed its face a little that year.
Of course, as anyone who studies East Coast precipitation knows, as you move southward into the subtropics, the face of the East Coast monsoon becomes stronger and stronger. Once deep into the American subtropics, stations like Charleston, SC or St. Augustine, Florida have twice as much precipitation in the cool season as in the hot season. By the time one is in north Florida, chronic winter/spring drought is part of the annual climate cycle. In fact, climatologists are considering redefining parts of this region to “subtropical monsoon” instead of the “subtropical humid” classification now used:
We can see that despite the fact a monsoonal pattern to precipitation in the far eastern United States is not annual in occurrence (that is to say it’s not “climatic”)…there are periodically times when the expected genetic monsoonal character to precipitation in the Middle Atlantic States/NYC area shows its face. While it can be difficult to separate the effects of the southwest flow out of the Azores-Bermuda High… from the inward flow of a thermally induced monsoon... rainfall at the time of high sun should always be a good bet on the East Coast in summer. It would be unusual for anywhere south Boston and east of the Mississippi to have a “dry” flow throughout the hot season.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
Finally. Latest GFS for Sunday the 22nd. 990mb Low over NY. System comes from West, dips down to TN valley and moves NorthEast.
A shift south and East and we'll get the most out of this.
Still long range so who knows.
Well, it looks interesting, but I'll believe it when it actually verifies. I've had less than 0.10'' of precip this month and temperatures will be on blowtorch mode for early next week again as the high off the coast is a small-scale version of what happened last month.
The fifth paragraph should have hot season in place of cool season. The is the corrected paragraph:
Of course, as anyone who studies East Coast precipitation knows, as you move southward into the subtropics, the face of the East Coast monsoon becomes stronger and stronger. Once deep into the American subtropics, stations like Charleston, SC or St. Augustine, Florida have twice as much precipitation in the hot season as in the cool season. By the time one is in north Florida, chronic winter/spring drought is part of the annual climate cycle. In fact, climatologists are considering redefining parts of this region to “subtropical monsoon” instead of the “subtropical humid” classification now used":
I read it a few times and the must have not noticed this error.
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