[nei]

Hmm. Your precip map (GFS?) clashes with my HPC map.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

Hmm. Your precip map (GFS?) clashes with my HPC map.

HPC is a blend, they dont change with every update. My GFS was just using the 12z as stated. next run could have us dry. lol

I think the 12z overdid everything but who knows. If it continues HPC will adjust.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

True, we have a big advantage in terms of a longer growing season along the I-95 corridor (as well as those on Long Island, eastern New Jersey, and NYC). Those inland and in the higher elevations of NW CT have to worry about frost longer in spring and early in fall. Although just as you say, there are all time record sub-freezing days, otherwise climo wise we are pretty safe from frost now in the above areas. I think for many of us our next frost will be in early November. I see no below normal temps (if not still above normal) for the next two weeks, and after that, well the odds fall fast even far inland and in the NW Hills.

One other climate note:

People keeping asking me and there has been great discussion at work about how the ‘nights’ have been warmer than normal, at least here along the 95 corridor. Besides the above normal temps (meaning daily highs get higher so nights have much further to fall to get even semi-cool)…the only reason I can think of is that SST are above normal off the East Coast/Tri-State area. All this warmth we are getting has to be absorbed to some extent by the oceans. From the best I can tell, we are running about 3 to 5 F above normal SST wise. As of today – SST are 13 – 14 C (55 – 57 F) off Long Island, NJ, CT…and already nearing 16 C (60 F) near Maryland/VA. Also, a growing large patch of 16 – 18 C (64 – 66 F) SST due east of Delaware Bay that will soon overtake the last of the cooler waters (I've been watching this since late March):




It is only mid April. I think we have a real shot of seeing near 26 C (80 F ) SST to Atlantic City by late August. These warm SST will have two (at least) impacts that I think are likely: 1) I think the warmer than normal SST temps in the coming months will keep summer nights very warm and sultry this hot season. 2) Though we are six months away (lol) , I’m now predicting a warmer than normal fall across the Tri-State/Middle Atlantic (similar to last fall).

Why would anybody in his or her right mind want hot sultry nights? Or if you do why not live on the southeast coast where you could have hot sultry nights to your hearts desire...Man I genuinely feel sorry for you when cold and snow comes, you must be completely miserable. Thankful I love all seasons (yes even hot summer days in short duration)...

[7 Wishes]

I just noticed this thread has passed it's 5000th post, congratulations!

By the way, maps actually now show a small batch of rain about to come into CT......it don't look like much but I guess today's "southern rain" moved a little further north than they thought.....map looks like it's pouring from south of Philly through DC.

[Cambium]

Euro12z... Bombs Away. Insane...again, and I wont even elaborate on this.

It does what I mentioned at the bottom of the 5000th post. Why is it doing this? Not sure.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Euro12z... Bombs Away. Insane...again, and I wont even elaborate on this.

Ok, I'll elaborate a little. Here's the snow totals from that run. Is Euro on something? lol

9-12" in northern Litchfield. 6-9" north of I-84. Dusting to 3" all the way to coast. Subtract 2 for warm ground...unless it falls hard like October. Then it would stick no matter what.

Question iI have is, millions of data gets analyzed by the Euro. What made it show this again? Thats what interests me. It saw something to create this end result.

[Cambium]

Max temp at BDR today was 58. lol Normal high is 59.

So our max temp was normal today but some will say thats below normal. I had short sleeves on and it was actually chilly.

Back to the normal pattern like I said. The warmup was a glitch.

[Cambium]

Next potential heat wave near 90 degrees would be around April 29th OR May5th. Then potentially breaking 90 by mid May.(not long lasting).

This is based on the LRC cycle I am studying.

[GraniteStater]

18Z GFS tracks the storm through the Gulf of Maine and leaves VT and NH with far less QPF. It keeps wanting to shove the front through rather quickly on Saturday as well. I sense some phasing problems and am not taking the bait for huge precip totals for many areas.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Next potential heat wave near 90 degrees would be around April 29th OR May5th. Then potentially breaking 90 by mid May.(not long lasting).

This is based on the LRC cycle I am studying.

Lezak Recurring Cycle?
Yes, he is a good meteorologist, KSHB Kansas City TV market.