[Cambium]

10 day forecast might not show it but models are showing another coastal situation.

This is according to NOAA. We've been on target with the last 5 storms... why not this one now.

I think North of Merrit will be all snow... Temps will play a role for Coastal cities like usual. Still early...lets keep an eye on this one.

Also..... there's just "talk" and "rumors" that one giant finale of a storm will hit us at end of month measured in feet.. It will be the trend changer. Only 1 model suggesting that....

Lets focus on Tuesdays storm first.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

12Z MODELS ARE REACHING A DEGREE OF CONSENSUS ABOUT THE LONG
TERM...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING THAT A LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY EVENING...AND SPAWN A
COASTAL LOW PROBABLY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH
THEN TRACKS TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW USED
THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE SHORT TERM...AS IT IS MORE
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND HELPS SMOOTH OUT THE LARGE
JUMP NORTH THE ECMWF HAD WITH THE STORMS TRACK FROM THE 00Z TO THE
12Z RUN.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...EXPECT WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
MONDAY. WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE
(THOUGH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE LIKELY WILL LIMIT MIXING TO THE
POINT THAT TEMPERATURES STILL RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
DAY).

FOR NOW EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. FOR NOW SHOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER NYC/LONG ISLAND TUE
AFTERNOON IN SOME DEFERENCE TO FURTHER N ECMWF (WHICH OVER ALL HAS
PERFORMED BEST OF ANY MODEL THIS WINTER).

GIVEN THE STILL FAIRLY LARGE (BUT SHRINKING) DEGREE OF MODEL SPREAD
WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON LOW TRACK
AND TIMING...DETAILS WHICH ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH...IF
ANY...WINTRY PRECIP IMPACTS THE TRI-STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

WOULD EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OF AS SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY (SLIGHT CHANCE POPS). THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND APPROACHING 500 HPA CUTOFF LOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM...GENERALLY BLENDED MEX/MEX
ENSEMBLE MEAN NUMBERS...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

[Cambium]

[witnessachange]

accuweather.com has the 22-26 showing snow everyday... and weather.com has use getting snow 23/24... what do you think??

[Cambium]

Monday night. so 22 & 23. Looking too east for me to really like this one. Unless the energy is really strong we will only see light amounts. If it pulls west more, we'll see significant....

Like always...still early.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Snowman27

Monday night. so 22 & 23. Looking too east for me to really like this one. Unless the energy is really strong we will only see light amounts. If it pulls west more, we'll see significant....

Like always...still early.

Also heard possible rain or rain/snow mix in most of the tri-state area (For CT, if I go on the NWS site, Greenwich/Stamford give rain-mix forecasts, the rest of the state (at least the part covered by the OKX site) shows snow only.

[witnessachange]

I dont care about the tri state area lol.. I care about connecticut.. I usually get all snow where I live..

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Snowman27

Monday night. so 22 & 23. Looking too east for me to really like this one. Unless the energy is really strong we will only see light amounts. If it pulls west more, we'll see significant....

Like always...still early.

Just like I said...looking to east for me. Now High Pressure is getting stronger and could block the storm from moving north. We'll get nothing.

The "potential" was there and sometimes I even go against the models... lol

The foot of snow we have on our lawns should melt to a couple inches by Monday.

[wavehunter007]

Snowman:

It’s really going to be a foot race from here on out for the rest of winter.

Daily mean temps are rising fast…the solar angle in increasing every day…and in a week or two, the heat will start building up in the subtropical south (any southerly advections will bring in warmer air). Getting snow to fall…let alone stay on the ground for any length of time… is an uphill battle from here on out. Today it hit 40 F + in most areas and the sun was blazing. About 40% of my lawn is already showing. Fri, Sat, Sun will see more of the same sunny, dry, and over 40 F. Snow cover is fighting for it’s life (lol).

As we go from the last week of February into March the rain/mix/snow line really plays havoc with snowstorms across the Tri-State area. I would expect that if the low forecast to move through the USA in the middle of next week fails to produce a significant snow across the Tri-State…that my be the last chance for a real heavy snow storm until next December. The mean date of the last 1 –inch of snow fall at NWS Bridgeport is March 12th...I think BDL is later however.

We’ll see.

[Infamous92]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Snowman:

It’s really going to be a foot race from here on out for the rest of winter.

Daily mean temps are rising fast…the solar angle in increasing every day…and in a week or two, the heat will start building up in the subtropical south (any southerly advections will bring in warmer air). Getting snow to fall…let alone stay on the ground for any length of time… is an uphill battle from here on out. Today it hit 40 F + in most areas and the sun was blazing. About 40% of my lawn is already showing. Fri, Sat, Sun will see more of the same sunny, dry, and over 40 F. Snow cover is fighting for it’s life (lol).

As we go from the last week of February into March the rain/mix/snow line really plays havoc with snowstorms across the Tri-State area. I would expect that if the low forecast to move through the USA in the middle of next week fails to produce a significant snow across the Tri-State…that my be the last chance for a real heavy snow storm until next December. The mean date of the last 1 –inch of snow fall at NWS Bridgeport is March 12th...I think BDL is later however.

We’ll see.

Very good news lol.

I don't live in CT but I got scared when I saw this thread, I checked the forecast (for here) and we're supposed to reach 40 degrees on the 23rd.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

Snowman:

It’s really going to be a foot race from here on out for the rest of winter.

Daily mean temps are rising fast…the solar angle in increasing every day…and in a week or two, the heat will start building up in the subtropical south (any southerly advections will bring in warmer air). Getting snow to fall…let alone stay on the ground for any length of time… is an uphill battle from here on out. Today it hit 40 F + in most areas and the sun was blazing. About 40% of my lawn is already showing. Fri, Sat, Sun will see more of the same sunny, dry, and over 40 F. Snow cover is fighting for it’s life (lol).

As we go from the last week of February into March the rain/mix/snow line really plays havoc with snowstorms across the Tri-State area. I would expect that if the low forecast to move through the USA in the middle of next week fails to produce a significant snow across the Tri-State…that my be the last chance for a real heavy snow storm until next December. The mean date of the last 1 –inch of snow fall at NWS Bridgeport is March 12th...I think BDL is later however.

We’ll see.

True but exceptions happen, just last year there were several inches of snow on March 1-2. And don't forget 1993 when even the South got decent snow in mid-March (Birmingham, AL got a foot).