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Old 01-04-2019, 06:23 AM
 
872 posts, read 1,660,683 times
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So Cook has a a letter out to investors preparing them for lower sales? I think a couple of things are going on with Apple here:

1. Apple no longer has a monopoly on "cool" and "premium" phones. Samsung and Google Pixel make pretty "premium" phones now that are just as "cool".

2. $$$! Too expensive.

3. Also I think cellphones are becoming a mature technology. What was the last killer feature? I'm seeing something similar with TVs and personal computers. Since the late 1990s upgrading phones and PCs every 2 years or so made a big difference, and maybe 4 years for TVs. But now I haven't upgraded the HDTV in 5 years, and I'm typing this on a personal PC that's 6 years old (I did double the memory and add a graphics card though). I mean an iPhone 8 is still a pretty bad ass phone. And I say this not as a luddite, or a frugal scold--probably I know more than the avg person about specs, and what have you, but even I don't care to upgrade electronics as quickly as I used to.

4. Much of the next action is going to move to integration with the Internet of Things and the Voice Assistants. There Amazon and Google caught Apple sleeping, and may have jumped to far ahead of them. I don't think the homepod will catch up to the Echo or Google Home. Anectodally, even people who have iPhones are opting for Echo or Home over Homepod/Siri.
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Old 01-04-2019, 08:50 AM
 
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
11,815 posts, read 13,954,365 times
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1. I don't think that has anything to do with it.


2. This certainly does.


3. Part of it because people are holding on to phones longer... see point 2.


4. I don't think that has much impact on Apple's bottom line.


Then also
5. Expected giant sales in China and are falling flat there as China's economy isn't doing great right now.


and
6. Apple drew a lot of attention to itself after 'battery gate' and people realized they could almost make their phone run like new with a $29 replacement battery. See point 3.
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Old 01-04-2019, 11:43 AM
 
872 posts, read 1,660,683 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peregrine View Post
1. I don't think that has anything to do with it.


2. This certainly does.


3. Part of it because people are holding on to phones longer... see point 2.


4. I don't think that has much impact on Apple's bottom line.


Then also
5. Expected giant sales in China and are falling flat there as China's economy isn't doing great right now.


and
6. Apple drew a lot of attention to itself after 'battery gate' and people realized they could almost make their phone run like new with a $29 replacement battery. See point 3.
Re: Cost, people holding on longer and 'battery gate', it will then be interesting to see if other premium phones like Pixel and Samsung Galaxy are seeing similar relative sales slowdowns.
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Old 01-05-2019, 12:25 PM
 
Location: Sun City West, Arizona
25,281 posts, read 11,223,586 times
Reputation: 21354
Quote:
Originally Posted by superseiyan View Post
...

3. Also I think cellphones are becoming a mature technology. What was the last killer feature? I'm seeing something similar with TVs and personal computers. Since the late 1990s upgrading phones and PCs every 2 years or so made a big difference, and maybe 4 years for TVs. But now I haven't upgraded the HDTV in 5 years, and I'm typing this on a personal PC that's 6 years old (I did double the memory and add a graphics card though). I mean an iPhone 8 is still a pretty bad ass phone. And I say this not as a luddite, or a frugal scold--probably I know more than the avg person about specs, and what have you, but even I don't care to upgrade electronics as quickly as I used to. ...
I think that's a key aspect of this, and I was just reading an article about just that this morning. Last year I bought a Google Pixel 2...love it. The new model this year isn't that much improved for me to fork over another $700-$800.
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Old 01-07-2019, 07:25 PM
 
Location: Sarasota FL
6,865 posts, read 9,538,404 times
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When the market is totally saturated with people who want an Iphone and have an Iphone, who is left to buy one?
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Old 01-07-2019, 08:56 PM
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Location: Ohio
16,896 posts, read 33,625,390 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peregrine View Post
5. Expected giant sales in China and are falling flat there as China's economy isn't doing great right now.
This is part of it. Another part of it is that China's government has implemented a new and insidious social-scoring system that's kind of like a credit rating mixed with a reputation score. There are rumors in the country that citizens there get penalized in that system for using a phone that is not produced in China. If you don't want your social score to drop there, you won't get a new iPhone!

As long as that is a factor, Apple's iPhone sales in China may never be what they once were, no matter how the phones are priced.
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Old 01-08-2019, 08:30 AM
 
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
11,815 posts, read 13,954,365 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by d4g4m View Post
When the market is totally saturated with people who want an Iphone and have an Iphone, who is left to buy one?

  • A bunch of people in China who don't have iPhones
  • Android users you need to tempt to try iPhone
  • People with older iPhones
But you are right, saturation is certainly a thing.
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Old 01-08-2019, 01:26 PM
 
Location: NYC
13,753 posts, read 9,270,501 times
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The iPhone fad in China has already faded, the top 10 phones are all Chinese brand. Because the cost for iPhone is too high when many Chinese phones with premium features are less than 1/2 price of iPhone XR.

The biggest problem for Apple is there's too many used iPhone 6-7 in circulation and there's a big business around fixing screens and swapping out batteries.

Every mall has atleast 3-4 kiosks that repairs iPhones. Back then Apple would implement the slowdown on phones with aging batteries, now they can turn off the slowdown and use an external battery to keep working.
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