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Old 05-27-2016, 11:25 AM
 
Location: Denver and Boston
1,702 posts, read 1,437,392 times
Reputation: 3453

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Season Approaches: U.S. Hits Record 127 Months Since Major Hurricane Strike

It will officially be a record in 4 days. Lets all get an early start and congratulate FEMA and federal government policies for this success!! j/k

I think back to post Katrina predictions of ever increasing Hurricane activity due to 'global warming'. No comment by those Chicken Littles Mike Tidwel, Russ Mitchell, Kenny Ausubel, Robert Bazell and others on why Hurricane activity has been so low over the past ten years.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/08/...after-katrina/

Katrina Anniversary: Media's 10 Most Outlandish Hurricane Predictions Full of Hot Air
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Old 05-27-2016, 11:52 AM
 
5 posts, read 4,151 times
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Thanks Obama!!!!!
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Old 05-27-2016, 11:54 AM
 
Location: TOVCCA
8,273 posts, read 10,526,318 times
Reputation: 11858
They're defining the stats for Category 3 and over. But Hurricane Sandy of 11/2012 although a Cat 2 was $20 billion and nearly 300 deaths, no small thing.
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Old 05-27-2016, 12:12 PM
 
48,923 posts, read 39,411,169 times
Reputation: 30570
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert5 View Post
Season Approaches: U.S. Hits Record 127 Months Since Major Hurricane Strike

It will officially be a record in 4 days. Lets all get an early start and congratulate FEMA and federal government policies for this success!! j/k

I think back to post Katrina predictions of ever increasing Hurricane activity due to 'global warming'. No comment by those Chicken Littles Mike Tidwel, Russ Mitchell, Kenny Ausubel, Robert Bazell and others on why Hurricane activity has been so low over the past ten years.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/08/...after-katrina/

Katrina Anniversary: Media's 10 Most Outlandish Hurricane Predictions Full of Hot Air
The issue is that with something that has a low probability of occurring in any given year is that you need lots of years before you can draw any conclusions.

All this really means is that people without an understanding of statistics have incorrectly used them on both sides of the argument. They generally do this to shill for whatever narrative, product etc. they are selling.

For example, if we expected to have 2 hurricanes in a 10 year period, there is around a 14% chance of having 0. (Poisson distribution). 27% of 1, 27% of 2.....1% of 6.

What that should tell you is that a ten year period looking just at US landfalls of just CAT3 or greater is a ridiculously short period of time to draw conclusions from.
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Old 05-27-2016, 12:36 PM
 
4,029 posts, read 1,804,654 times
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I live on the coast near the NC-SC boarder. Any day with out a hurricane is a good day.
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Old 05-27-2016, 12:49 PM
 
Location: Denver and Boston
1,702 posts, read 1,437,392 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy View Post
The issue is that with something that has a low probability of occurring in any given year is that you need lots of years before you can draw any conclusions.

All this really means is that people without an understanding of statistics have incorrectly used them on both sides of the argument. They generally do this to shill for whatever narrative, product etc. they are selling.

For example, if we expected to have 2 hurricanes in a 10 year period, there is around a 14% chance of having 0. (Poisson distribution). 27% of 1, 27% of 2.....1% of 6.

What that should tell you is that a ten year period looking just at US landfalls of just CAT3 or greater is a ridiculously short period of time to draw conclusions from.
I agree with you in principle, and I will add Hurricanes tend to occur, or not occur, in clusters due to el nino and other weather phenomenon so a simple statistical analysis is not fully accurate.

But your example greatly under estimates the frequency of major hurricanes, according to the data chart in the first link there have been 93 major hurricanes since 1851 to strike the US. That is 5.6 hurricanes in a 10 year period.

The only people making claims from Hurricane data trends were those after Katrina predictors of doom and others that I referenced in my OP. I don't know of any conclusions anyone on "the other side of the argument" is drawing from the recent period of Hurricane inactivity.
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Old 05-27-2016, 01:00 PM
 
48,923 posts, read 39,411,169 times
Reputation: 30570
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert5 View Post
I agree with you in principle, and I will add Hurricanes tend to occur, or not occur, in clusters due to el nino and other weather phenomenon so a simple statistical analysis is not fully accurate.

But your example greatly under estimates the frequency of major hurricanes, according to the data chart in the first link there have been 93 major hurricanes since 1851 to strike the US. That is 5.6 hurricanes in a 10 year period.

The only people making claims from Hurricane data trends were those after Katrina predictors of doom and others that I referenced in my OP. I don't know of any conclusions anyone on "the other side of the argument" is drawing from the recent period of Hurricane inactivity.
Yep, all good points.

Sure, using the 5.6 and of course ignoring that they aren't truly random variables the odds of zero are around 1 in 270 or less than 1/2%.

It's rare but not exactly lottery odds.

I've seen people point to the lack of hurricanes as proof that there is no global warming....just like people pointed to the year we had several as proof that there is global warming.

I mean, let's face it. ANYTIME there is some sort of odd weather pattern people are going to latch onto it to try to further their views.
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Old 05-27-2016, 01:46 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles County
11,073 posts, read 9,003,526 times
Reputation: 29016
Hurricanes and/or the lack of hurricanes is most definitely and/or is not at all tied to global warming and/or global cooling.

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Old 05-27-2016, 03:02 PM
 
Location: Hougary, Texberta
7,840 posts, read 10,362,555 times
Reputation: 9327
Ike was 2008. May not have killed many people, but it certainly rung up enough $$ in damage.
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Old 05-27-2016, 03:10 PM
 
Location: Southern Colorado
2,939 posts, read 1,436,340 times
Reputation: 3931
Maybe they are using matter/anti-matter explosions to kill baby hurricanes?
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