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Old 05-09-2011, 10:08 AM
 
57 posts, read 160,660 times
Reputation: 66

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What do you guys think?
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Old 05-09-2011, 10:16 AM
 
Location: North Texas
24,561 posts, read 40,285,459 times
Reputation: 28564
I'd be quaking in my boots if I thought I had to sell in the next 1-3 years. But I have no plans to, so I'm not overly concerned for myself personally, though I am concerned for the economy as a whole.
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Old 05-09-2011, 10:23 AM
 
Location: Texas
5,872 posts, read 8,094,294 times
Reputation: 2971
It's a great time to be a buyer and build inventory for holding and/or turning over in the next 18-24 months. There is going to be a LOT of money to be made.
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Old 05-09-2011, 10:40 AM
 
13,194 posts, read 28,298,950 times
Reputation: 13142
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cowboys_Fan2010 View Post
I think real estate is VERY, VERY LOCAL. You cannot read a national article and apply national stats to each of the thousands of local markets in the US.

Here's how some DFW areas & suburbs stacked up against the national Zillow stats (sales prices -8% to LY and falling 1% every month) for Q1 2011, stats compliments of Dallas Morning News.

As you can see sales trends are all over the place. Buyers and sellers cannot apply what's happening in cold Euless (sales units -40% to LY) to hot hot hot Fairview Far North Dallas (price +1%, units +10%).

Fairview
$335k median sale price
+8% to LY (Sales units +2%)

East Dallas
$189k med sales price
+6% to LY (Sales units -14%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

McKinney
$184k med sale price
+5% to LY (Sales units -14%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

North Dallas (south of 635)
$559k med sale price
+3% to LY (Sales units +3%)

Allen
$208k med sale price
+3% to LY (Sales units -9%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Rockwall
$179k med sales price
+2% to LY (Sales units -4%)

Frisco
$235k med Sales Price
+2% to LY (Sales units flat to LY)

Far North Dallas (between 635 & Bush)
$267k med sales price
+1% to LY (Sales units +10%)

The Colony
$129k med sale price
no change to LY (Sales units -27%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Coppell
$264k med sales price
-1% to LY (Sales units +12%)

Colleyville
$395k med sales price
-1% to LY (Sales units -18%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Park Cities (Highland Park & University Park)
$762.5k med sale price
-2% to LY (Sales units +4%)

Southlake
$478.8k med sales price
-2% to LY b (Sales units -8%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Plano
$205k med sales price
-2% to LY (Sales units -2%)

Euless
$150.5k med sales price
-3% to LY (Sales units -40%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Grapevine
$232.5k med sales price
-4% to LY (Sales units -11%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Richardson
$160k med sales price
-5% to LY (Sales units -11%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Garland
$89.9k med sales price
-5% to LY (Sales units -20%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Carrollton
$158.5k med sales price
-6% to LY (Sales units -18%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Irving
$111.8k med sales price
-11% to LY (sales units -13%)

Bedford
$139.8k med sales price
-12% to LY (sales units -15%)

Mesquite
$70k med sales price
-14% to LY (Sales units -37%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Lancaster
$65k med sales price
-23% to LY (Sales units -12%)

Now even within these area, there are neighborhood nuances to understanding the numbers. Take East Dallas for example. Overall area had a Q1 median sales price of $189,000 (+6% to LY, while units sales fell 14%, indicating "potential" weakness in the area).

The Lakewoood Advocate magazine breaks down "East Dallas" into 12 neighborhoods and tracks sales statitics monthly. Current average home sales in each of these 12 areas range from $142k up to $789k - quite a range! Certainly the buyers & sellers in the $142k neighborhood (Casa View/Casa Linda) are living in a different real estate market than the sellers/ buyers in the $789k (Lakewood proper) neighborhood, right? They sure are! Avg sales price in Casa View @ $142k was -25% to LY, while Lakewood's avg price was +35% to LY. Lakewood proper also sold +53% more units than LY, indicating the rising sales prices ARE solid and that there is no weakness in the market there. On the other hand, Casa View neighborhood's sales units fell nearly 60% to LY, indicating prices could continue to fall until buyers jump back in in that neighborhood.

All that to say, I don't read national real estate headlines. They're irrelevant. I care about the prices and trends in the neighborhoods I'm looking to buy & sell in. Period. What is going on in Bedford won't impact my property in Uptown. Two differents sets of buyers & sellers & prices. What is going on in San Diego or Charlotte certainly won't impact my property.
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Old 05-09-2011, 10:45 AM
 
2,348 posts, read 4,818,617 times
Reputation: 1602
I think, you needn't worry either way since it's all fairly relative in terms of how the real estate market works, and can be different from town to town quite honestly. Just depends on what you have to do in any given market, bull or bear. In terms of selling, if you Sell-low/buy-low, should produce a better return; conversely, if you sell high/buy high, more than likely you will make less return. I also think when I read this, it's even more reason for me to sell and get my hiney to DFW sooner. I would say DFW is one of the markets that has weathered the storm fairly well..I would be buying at great time, and would probably see a nicer return over time, than the home I am currently in.

Problem for alot of folks in a sell-low, buy-low scenario will be liquidity for the new home.

Last edited by skids929; 05-09-2011 at 10:53 AM..
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Old 05-09-2011, 10:47 AM
 
13,194 posts, read 28,298,950 times
Reputation: 13142
Quote:
Originally Posted by skids929 View Post
I think it's even more reason for me to sell and get my hiney to DFW sooner. I would say this is one of the markets that has weathered the storm fairly well..I would be buying at great time, and would probably see a nicer return over time, than the home I am currently in.

Problem for alot of folks though will be liquidity for the new home.
Here's another reason to drop McKinney from your shopping list-->

Q1 Sales Results

McKinney
$184k med sale price
+5% to LY (Sales units -14%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)
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Old 05-09-2011, 11:01 AM
 
2,348 posts, read 4,818,617 times
Reputation: 1602
Quote:
Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80 View Post
Here's another reason to drop McKinney from your shopping list-->

Q1 Sales Results

McKinney
$184k med sale price
+5% to LY (Sales units -14%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)
Good stuff..Thanks

No one knows where the bottom is, and those of us who have to sell are in a pickle. With that said, when I look at these stats it makes me just want to throw up my hands and say forget it. Particularly when I see places like Southlake be outperformed by the likes of Frisco. SL has been my go-to City for reference, but there were very few sales by comparison.

Who is feeding the data to this model?

Last edited by skids929; 05-09-2011 at 11:21 AM..
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Old 05-09-2011, 11:16 AM
 
57 posts, read 160,660 times
Reputation: 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80 View Post
I think real estate is VERY, VERY LOCAL. You cannot read a national article and apply national stats to each of the thousands of local markets in the US.

Here's how some DFW areas & suburbs stacked up against the national Zillow stats (sales prices -8% to LY and falling 1% every month) for Q1 2011, stats compliments of Dallas Morning News.

As you can see sales trends are all over the place. Buyers and sellers cannot apply what's happening in cold Euless (sales units -40% to LY) to hot hot hot Fairview Far North Dallas (price +1%, units +10%).

Fairview
$335k median sale price
+8% to LY (Sales units +2%)

East Dallas
$189k med sales price
+6% to LY (Sales units -14%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

McKinney
$184k med sale price
+5% to LY (Sales units -14%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

North Dallas (south of 635)
$559k med sale price
+3% to LY (Sales units +3%)

Allen
$208k med sale price
+3% to LY (Sales units -9%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Rockwall
$179k med sales price
+2% to LY (Sales units -4%)

Frisco
$235k med Sales Price
+2% to LY (Sales units flat to LY)

Far North Dallas (between 635 & Bush)
$267k med sales price
+1% to LY (Sales units +10%)

The Colony
$129k med sale price
no change to LY (Sales units -27%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Coppell
$264k med sales price
-1% to LY (Sales units +12%)

Colleyville
$395k med sales price
-1% to LY (Sales units -18%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Park Cities (Highland Park & University Park)
$762.5k med sale price
-2% to LY (Sales units +4%)

Southlake
$478.8k med sales price
-2% to LY b (Sales units -8%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Plano
$205k med sales price
-2% to LY (Sales units -2%)

Euless
$150.5k med sales price
-3% to LY (Sales units -40%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Grapevine
$232.5k med sales price
-4% to LY (Sales units -11%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Richardson
$160k med sales price
-5% to LY (Sales units -11%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Garland
$89.9k med sales price
-5% to LY (Sales units -20%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Carrollton
$158.5k med sales price
-6% to LY (Sales units -18%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Irving
$111.8k med sales price
-11% to LY (sales units -13%)

Bedford
$139.8k med sales price
-12% to LY (sales units -15%)

Mesquite
$70k med sales price
-14% to LY (Sales units -37%.....indicates prices are likely to fall here with such a big drop in units to LY)

Lancaster
$65k med sales price
-23% to LY (Sales units -12%)

Now even within these area, there are neighborhood nuances to understanding the numbers. Take East Dallas for example. Overall area had a Q1 median sales price of $189,000 (+6% to LY, while units sales fell 14%, indicating "potential" weakness in the area).

The Lakewoood Advocate magazine breaks down "East Dallas" into 12 neighborhoods and tracks sales statitics monthly. Current average home sales in each of these 12 areas range from $142k up to $789k - quite a range! Certainly the buyers & sellers in the $142k neighborhood (Casa View/Casa Linda) are living in a different real estate market than the sellers/ buyers in the $789k (Lakewood proper) neighborhood, right? They sure are! Avg sales price in Casa View @ $142k was -25% to LY, while Lakewood's avg price was +35% to LY. Lakewood proper also sold +53% more units than LY, indicating the rising sales prices ARE solid and that there is no weakness in the market there. On the other hand, Casa View neighborhood's sales units fell nearly 60% to LY, indicating prices could continue to fall until buyers jump back in in that neighborhood.

All that to say, I don't read national real estate headlines. They're irrelevant. I care about the prices and trends in the neighborhoods I'm looking to buy & sell in. Period. What is going on in Bedford won't impact my property in Uptown. Two differents sets of buyers & sellers & prices. What is going on in San Diego or Charlotte certainly won't impact my property.
Great Info. Thanks
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Old 05-09-2011, 11:18 AM
 
Location: North Texas
24,561 posts, read 40,285,459 times
Reputation: 28564
TC80 are you really using Zillow to build those stats?

I've noticed in my own neighborhood that year-on-year price growth from 2010 to 2011 does not seem as high as price growth from 2009 to 2010 and some people still have a kind of "bubble" mentality when it comes to selling their homes but the price per square foot seems to be holding or increasing.
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Old 05-09-2011, 11:28 AM
 
13,194 posts, read 28,298,950 times
Reputation: 13142
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigDGeek View Post
TC80 are you really using Zillow to build those stats?

Dallas Area Home Sales - Business News for Dallas, Texas - The Dallas Morning News

Heck no!! Zillow is crap in Texas. We all know that

I'm using the Dallas Morning News quarterly report. The data is pulled from NTREIS (North Texas Real Estate Information Systems) aka the MLS. It's real data. Not "zestimates."
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