Forecasting home appreciation (Dallas, Plano, Irving: 2009, apartment complex, rent)

[lukeache]

I was trying to put together a little study to try to forecast home appreciation in the DFW area. Based on the economical data
that is available now, it seems like housing prices will go down for at least a couple more years, the target year for homes to start
to appreciate again is 2009, therefore I would not purchase a home until prices hit rockbottom. Based on preferences, and the laws of
supply and demand, it seems like 80% of the people here would rather purchase a home in Collin County (Allen, Plano, McKinney, etc) vs
any other areas of town, if my assumption is correct? Consequently, is Collin County the safest bet as far as future home appreciation?
Also, I understand how the "urbanization" of certain areas can influence the price, someone mentioned Irving going down as an area because
of growing Hispanic populations. Would Collin County be immune to this type of "changing demographics". Also, what is your opinion on Fate,
Heath, or Rockwall as far as potential appreciation for the next 20 years?

[galore]

Collin County is popular because there is a lot of new home construction at comparably low prices going on.
Those new homes are on former prairie land and there are still huge amounts of land available to build. Consequently you will be competing with new construction and used home appreciation is problematic.

If you want appreciation in DFW, invest in built-out areas that are becoming more popular in Dallas county.

[padcrasher]

Or buy right before it's completely built out. And a small managable school district with rare Exemplary ratings helps. Along with stringent zoning codes.

Southlake.

[padcrasher]

These communites on the far outer edges are long term losers. As the neighborhoods age the commute times start to take their toll. IMO you want near natural industry centers. (ie airport hubs, major manufacturing, corporate headquarters) yet in an area that has very low crime, the best schools, no apartments, no small lots) Dallas has Highland park (But it's already matured as an exlusive area, the big appreciation gains are gone) Southlake/Westlake in Tarrant County is like a young bigger version of the Park Cities. Close to industry centers, and exclusive (although not as exclusive as HP/UP.)

[Lakewooder]

The highest appreciation rates are in Central Dallas (North Dallas, Lakewood and at times Turtle Creek and Uptown) and the Park Cities.

This should continue as the new homes are being built (and over-built) in increasingly farther distances from city amenities and jobs.

[TriumphOfTheSprint]

You guys act like none of the jobs are moving outward along with the housing growth. I can assure you that many companies, particularly in the high tech arena, are moving outward, where their employees are nearby. The Tollway corridor through Plano and Frisco is a prime example of this - many corporate headquarters may be found along this route.

[lh_newbie]

That is one comment I don't completely understand from Lakewooder also - if you look at Legacy between the Dallas North Tollway and Preston, there are quite a few companies - EDS and Network Associates come to mind. There are obviously jobs in the northern burbs.

I do feel the days of the car based society are limited. Prices of raw materials and fuel are going to continue to rise. In my opinion, the cities that begin now focusing on increasing density and building better public transit are going to be the cities that are well-off and continue growing over the long-run.

While I live in a single family home inside the 635 loop, which is obviously not a high density environment, the areas near downtown have been being torn down and higher density developments being put in. Just a 10 minute walk from my house, there's a 70 acre development where a single-zoned apartment complex with 1200 units will be torn down and replaced with a mixed use development that has a DART rail station, 200K sq ft of office, 300K sq ft of retail and 1800 residential units (mix of rent and buy). I do feel these sort of developments are going to become more and more desirable.

For that reason, I question the long-term viability (we're talking 20+ years) of the far outskirts. Living there may be wonderful today - and that's totally cool in my book - but I do feel society is inevitably heading toward the way Europe operates. While that change happens, the property value closer to city centers and major downtowns will rise faster than lower density outskirts. When that bridge is crossed, our home will not have only been a wonderful place to live for many, many years, when we eventually sell, it'll be worth a small fortune (one can hope, right?!)

After all, this thread is discussing home appreciation. That's my view on the macro housing future.

Brian

[TriumphOfTheSprint]

To some extent, I agree with this. However, I believe that ongoing research will find alternative technologies to help alleviate the fuel issue (in your 20-year window). I see a more distributed version of commercial nodes with medium-to-high density scattered around the various freeway zones, e.g. Las Colinas, Telecom Corridor, Legacy/121.

These will allow people in the further zones to be within reasonable commuting distance. As fuel prices continue to increase and growth spreads outward, there will be more incentive for companies to distribute in this way. The areas near these cores will tend to see higher prices, due to the convenience and amenities available.

Obviously, the area around downtown Dallas will continue to be the largest of these and continue to grow, but many new companies will move and/or establish in the fringe areas, if only because the commercial land is cheaper there as well.

[rowlett mom]

The more densly populated areas close to downtown and even a little farther out will always attract singles, young childless couples and older empty nesters who have time and money to patronize the amenities offered there. People with families will mostly want a more suburban lifestyle with some open space and a community feel. We are a very long way from having to worry about not having automobiles available to get around. There are plenty of corporate headquarters, law offices, hospitals, electronic and research companies, etc. in the nicer suburbs so people won't necessarly have to drive long distances to work. I personally don't like the cramped feeling of some of the most popular close in areas. I wouldn't want to deal with all the traffic everytime I needed to go somewhere. the idea of having to go to a store everyday or two to pick up items for dinner sounds pretty bad as well, even if I could walk there. Not to mention the shops in these highly popular, densly packed areas will be more expensive than my local grocery store. We are slated to get light rail here in rowlett in a few years.
For the people who do work downtown or right off the rail line somewhere it will be convient. For me it will be usefull to take downtown for shopping or going to museums etc so to not have to worry about parking.
I don't think anything is going to change anytime soon. Right now the burbs rule because they are affordable to the most people. suburban areas like HP and UP will always be worth a lot because they have been kept up and are close to downtown. I would be curious to know how many people from around there head out to Richardson telecom corrider or other suburban areas for work each day.

[KantLockeMeIn]

You could take the opposite view and say that the green way of working is telecommuting. People will move where there is high speed Internet access and a high quality of life with low cost housing.

I've been telecommuting for over 5 years now and thinking ahead 20 years I can't see why more people wouldn't be able to do it. Given IP Telephony I was able to bring home an IP Phone and have the same phone I would have in the office. I ran into the office today to hop on a Telepresence call which allowed me to have a face to face meeting with coworkers across the country in high def video over the network. Given the FIOS deployment and capabilities with fiber to the house, it's not unreasonable for me to predict that we'll see the same functionality in the home in 2-5 years.

I don't think people are going to move into cities due to high gas prices...