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with the illegal question, I feel it's very similar to the China question, Americans TALK a good game about getting rid of Chinese imports that are killing American industry, but when push comes to shove, they are buying the much cheaper Chinese goods every time. Ditto for the illegals...everyone wants them deported till they need a maid, or someone to mow the lawn, or people to help them move their stuff to their new house built by illegals...Actions speak much louder than words. Until we stop providing them with the jobs then all this talk is meaningless...
Are ALL Americans ready to pay $50K more for their new build houses if American labor is used? are Americans ready to pay much more for groceries? and this is not directed at the well off who could take the hit and not notice, but those Americans making $30K to $50K with a wife and 3 kids to support (in other words, the majority)...will those Americans be ready to eat the higher costs if illegals are deported? My guess is no. So there you have it.
That's a, "Tragedy of the Commons" play seen in economics throughout history.
The simple fact is that illegals cost society much more than their net first level benefit of lower wages.
Over the longer term the economy would improve significantly. I think this reality is just now starting to sink into average Joe's head.
with the illegal question, I feel it's very similar to the China question, Americans TALK a good game about getting rid of Chinese imports that are killing American industry, but when push comes to shove, they are buying the much cheaper Chinese goods every time. Ditto for the illegals...everyone wants them deported till they need a maid, or someone to mow the lawn, or people to help them move their stuff to their new house built by illegals...Actions speak much louder than words. Until we stop providing them with the jobs then all this talk is meaningless...
More to the point we would have to kill the Plantation Nation mindset and operating system. Last time we did that caused a little thing known as the Civil War by some and The War of Northern Aggression by others.
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Are ALL Americans ready to pay $50K more for their new build houses if American labor is used? are Americans ready to pay much more for groceries? and this is not directed at the well off who could take the hit and not notice, but those Americans making $30K to $50K with a wife and 3 kids to support (in other words, the majority)...will those Americans be ready to eat the higher costs if illegals are deported? My guess is no. So there you have it.
Those are false numbers and false economy you are presenting.
The net cost becomes the same.
It is just more profitable to the upper end -- the Big House, as it were -- to do it illegally.
More to the point we would have to kill the Plantation Nation mindset and operating system. Last time we did that caused a little thing known as the Civil War by some and The War of Northern Aggression by others.
Those are false numbers and false economy you are presenting.
The net cost becomes the same.
It is just more profitable to the upper end -- the Big House, as it were -- to do it illegally.
How are they false numbers??? well I take that back, they may be false only because I underestimated the costs...right now in construction wages are under $15/hr due to the illegal influx...I remember over a decade ago when construction paid over $25/hr depending on what you did exactly it was even higher than that...so if wages rise back to that level, you dont think a rise in costs of $50K at least is reasonable?
And I'll say it again, that lower middle class family making an income of $50K might have had a shot at buying a house costing say $130K...but you push that cost up to $180K then it's out of reach...how many American families would simply grin and bear it? How many middle class families would be ok with their grocery bill rising by 30%???
How are they false numbers??? well I take that back, they may be false only because I underestimated the costs...right now in construction wages are under $15/hr due to the illegal influx...I remember over a decade ago when construction paid over $25/hr depending on what you did exactly it was even higher than that...so if wages rise back to that level, you dont think a rise in costs of $50K at least is reasonable?
And I'll say it again, that lower middle class family making an income of $50K might have had a shot at buying a house costing say $130K...but you push that cost up to $180K then it's out of reach...how many American families would simply grin and bear it? How many middle class families would be ok with their grocery bill rising by 30%???
Let me get this straight.
You do not work construction, do not price or contract it, or even work in the completed product as real estate and you figure you have the numbers on how a final sales price will be driven by a single labor component cost?
Not dogging you, just asking if I am following that correctly.
You do not work construction, do not price or contract it, or even work in the completed product as real estate and you figure you have the numbers on how a final sales price will be driven by a single labor component cost?
Not dogging you, just asking if I am following that correctly.
And I guess the same on the grocery bill numbers?
yes you are correct, I do not work in construction, I did have friends (American) who worked construction in the late 90s who spoke of getting at least $25/hr...I know that is not the case today. As far as I know, labor is a pretty big component of a house cost...unless you either a) dont think it's a big component or b) You think the builders will eat that cost increase instead of passing it on to the consumers? I would respectfully say you are wrong on both counts.
I have done a few roofs, it might have been cheaper to pay some Mexicans to do the labor and buy the materials. In some ways that kind of work is better then my Universal Gym.
Most of the trades can be learned esp to basic levels
He was at the boston massacre throwing not so much rocks as reported in some history books, but large chunks of horse ****, which spooked Britts into and overreaction
He was also at the scene when one of the leading citizens of Boston was tarred and feathered, nice guy told them not kill him just humiliate him.
He was at the Boston Tea Party, that was only partly over taxes. it took the breakfast drink of choice away from the leading citizens of Boston
I cant get too worked over over the more dull members of what is left of the middle class. Providing easy home loans turned out to be one of the greatest fiascos in the brief history of the USA.
The civil war was a tough time in the History of the USA. WIld pigs often ate wounded men alive. Starting at the stomach. Never really had to happen either, would have been cheaper to buy out the slaveowners or just let the South go, that really was a lawful solution.
It a major error to think developments of of Post WW2 tract homes are the
only way or always the cheapest way for people to own the home they live in.
I am surprised Biafra does not point out that many blacks owned homes in areas that were redlined for mortgages until recent decades, and may still be redlined for insurance to some extant. You never needed a friend in congress or at the bank to get a home. Niether does anyone else.
It may help some people in HP to think they are not really as dependent on transfer payments, as a vacuous women who married the welfare office but many really are in a roundabout way. In a less threatening way to talk about it to small biz people so is walmart. They pay people right at the sweet spot to get section 8, medical bennies and food stamps. In some cases the leaches are white too. A school pal worked at large filling station in HS where there were grown men working there for the minimum wage, all the while getting food stamps, medical care and living in Townhouses just like the ones the used to be on NW Highway. They had plenty of money for beer and smokes thanks to the tax payers.
There is a real possiblity the check book gets taken away at sometime in the future. I would not mind at all seeing some of the trash people whose livelihood is related some bad choices starting in the 1930's fall face first into some horse manure. Faukner talks about some of thier lifestyles in his novels.
Last edited by 1957TabbyCat; 09-30-2011 at 12:53 PM..
Are ALL Americans ready to pay $50K more for their new build houses if American labor is used? are Americans ready to pay much more for groceries? and this is not directed at the well off who could take the hit and not notice, but those Americans making $30K to $50K with a wife and 3 kids to support (in other words, the majority)...will those Americans be ready to eat the higher costs if illegals are deported? My guess is no. So there you have it.
This is not even close nor is its premise true.
Have you walked around any new home construction the last four years? The people on the crews are all verified legal. That was the first place that ICE cleaned up when the new laws went into effect in 2009.
My wife let about 10% of her legacy workforce go in 2009 when their E-verify came up negative. At her new job, ALL employees are run through this.
IMHO, most of this cost has already been absorbed.
yes you are correct, I do not work in construction, I did have friends (American) who worked construction in the late 90s who spoke of getting at least $25/hr...I know that is not the case today. As far as I know, labor is a pretty big component of a house cost...unless you either a) dont think it's a big component or b) You think the builders will eat that cost increase instead of passing it on to the consumers? I would respectfully say you are wrong on both counts.
Show me a run book for a new home.
When I built one using a GC his profit was 10% of the cost. The labor was around 12% on that run book.
If it takes about 2 months to build a home working all the time - and you have two people working full time, then that is about 4 man months. 3 man months x 3K per month is $12K. Play with the math. No way will it increase the cost much.
When I drive around new construction, I see about 30% of the labor is anglo, about 10% black, and the rest latino. The foremen who are latino speak perfect English. I just about fell over when I saw that the bricklayers were all anglo.
yes you are correct, I do not work in construction, I did have friends (American) who worked construction in the late 90s who spoke of getting at least $25/hr...I know that is not the case today. As far as I know, labor is a pretty big component of a house cost...unless you either a) dont think it's a big component or b) You think the builders will eat that cost increase instead of passing it on to the consumers? I would respectfully say you are wrong on both counts.
And sorry to sound like I am/was dogging you on that. Just doing bid and design work and playing on here on the side and my style gets a little terse.
Construction budgeting varies widely. And it tends to be flexible, as well. In high labor costs areas, we use somewhat more expense machinery, and in low labor costs areas, we might put more guys on the clock. All balances out.
But back to house final price "costing" . . . . it has surprising little to do with . . . cost.
See, if house prices had actually been tied to cost or vice versa, there would not have been the huge run up before the bust in 2008. A major reason that things were so overbuilt is because costs had become disconnected from prices.
The profit portion had went way up while the (illegal) labor costs were held down due to the surplus labor that illegals created. Conversely now, after the crash, many houses are selling for far less than it cost to build them. even though relatively cheap labor may had been involved in creating them.
For some Very Rough modeling numbers, across many and various construction projects a Very Rough breakdown may be somewhere around 40% materials, 40% labor, 10% project management, engineering, etc., and 10% overhead and profit.
Not saying that applies to ANY specific or general project -- it does not -- but over a wide base, it is reasonable. So looking at that labor component -- 40%, and you are saying a labor price skew of $25 to $15, or a 40% difference. Doing the math 0.4 X 0.4 = 0.16, or 16%. Figuring that all other things were equal. But they are not equal, because when any cost, whether materials, labor, land, etc., the methods used shift to mitigate or profit from those shifts.
But all THAT is neither here nor there for the actual price -- like we covered above.
So what really does drives housing prices in the US?
Joe 6 Pack's monthly income and the house payment Joe can handle.
THAT is it. That sets the house payment. That is how houses are bought sold and in the end, priced. From that budget, interest rates and length of term pile back-up the math to set how much of a mortgage Joe can handle.
Had NOTHING to do with the cost. Sounds crazy, but that is the math.
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Do the trades yourself
