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Old 01-30-2015, 10:24 PM
 
11,712 posts, read 21,406,808 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rrbcfy View Post
I'm going to come back to this and ask you to back it up with some stats. I'm sure that prices declined in the park cities during that period, but there has never been any good deals in the park cities.

Anyone that was selling in, your quote "2009-early 2011," matched up nicely with those who were looking to buy. I would argue that Park Cities Real Estate is the most efficient "market"* you will ever see in the real estate.

* market = "1.5m to 2.5m"

** anything over 2.5m is a different ball game.
No MLS stats, but 3 close friends home purchases in that time were a pretty good market sample. I heard quite a few of these stories in the 2008-2010 years as I'm of the age where a lot of friends were either buying 1st homes there (with hefty down payments) or were able to hold onto a $250k starter home as a rental for the first few years or ownership with no financial burden.

IMO, anyone who purchased at that time got a steal - not necessarily at that moment in time because houses sell for market rate even in a very low demand market- but from a historical / long term view of the Park Cities market, those buys were total steals. Once in a generation chance to buy at such low prices.

1. Saw 4300sf early 2000's home in UP west of Preston/ north of Lovers the prior summer (2009) when it was listed at $1.2-1.3M. They thought it was worth around $1M and made offer. Offer rejected, no counter. In December of 2009 (6 months later), listing agent called saying that was the a ONLY offer the house ever received and were they interested? They lowballed again - around $950k, IIRC, and the sellers accepted. Their home was on the (deflated) tax rolls for $1.25M in 2008 and they could probably sell for $1.4-1.5M today. To be able to take advantage of that brief moment in time (bad market in Park Cities was late 2008-early 2011) was very lucky. This is their forever home and just a block from one of their siblings.

2. Second friend bought their UP home (north of Mockingbird, west of Preston) in 2010 for something like $750k. Nicely remodeled 2700sf-ish 1930's traditional. It had appreciated so much by mid- 2013 that they sold for close to $1M- I'd say a 33% increase in 2.5 years made that home a good deal! Allowed them to trade up into a forever home. To put the 2010 purchase price in context, it was less than my parents sold our comparable UP home for almost 10 years prior.

3. Best one, IMO. Cash buyer. Very exclusive HP street. 4500sf historic home, needed a lot of work but very unique and desirable location/setting. Original list price in 2008 was around $2.5M. He made several offers, all rejected. Finally bought the place over a year later for $1.5M cash. He did put a few hundred thousand into remodeling but the place is probably worth around $3M (maybe more, it's a spectacular setting) in this market.

Last edited by TurtleCreek80; 01-30-2015 at 10:35 PM..
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Old 01-30-2015, 11:12 PM
 
11,712 posts, read 21,406,808 times
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And for some harder "stats". Dallas Morning News publishes these quarterly.

2007 (just a snapshot in time at peak)
Median sales price: $929k, +13% to prior year
DOM: 68

2008
Can't find the ntreis link but prices rose another 3%

Q3 2009
Median sale price: $830k, -13% to prior year
DOM: 109 (highest in the entire metroplex)

Q4 2014
Median sale price: $1.04M, +15% to prior year
DOM: 58

So yeah, I think when the DOM almost doubles while the median price sinks by 10-15%, there clearly were steals and deals. Builders were completely out do the spec game. There were a good many foreclosures in the Park Cities in the worst of it (even in prime 4200-4400 French Street blocks) so not everyone was ok with the terms in which they were selling. "Then" was very counter to "now", with all-time high prices and <4 months of inventory on the open MLS market, leaving few to no deals to be made.
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Old 01-31-2015, 10:22 AM
 
Location: Rocky Mountain Xplorer
956 posts, read 1,256,433 times
Reputation: 684
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taynxtlvl View Post
I think Dallas Today (2015) is a lot more diverse than the Dallas of yesterday (1980's) And as diverse as any major city in the US. I think its okay for the time being.
Even back in the 80s the industry was already centered in Houston and the perception was that Dallas was a player in the industry because of the TV show which featured a guy name JR. It's just TV folks, and please don' believe everything you see on TV. I suspect what's going on with crude oil prices will be a net plus for many places like Dallas which will have cheaper gas-pump prices and probably an elevated optimism of consumers.The first time I moved to Texas was in 1981 and I almost went to work in Dallas for EDS if any of the oldtimers remember them, but to my knowledge they weren't petro companies hiring in Dallas, and that's why i went to Houston at the time because the petro company there was paying so much more than EDS.
And trust me on this, EDS was a real tight-wad outfit.
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Old 01-31-2015, 02:21 PM
 
603 posts, read 684,619 times
Reputation: 743
Quote:
Originally Posted by rrbcfy View Post
I'm going to come back to this and ask you to back it up with some stats. I'm sure that prices declined in the park cities during that period, but there has never been any good deals in the park cities.

Anyone that was selling in, your quote "2009-early 2011," matched up nicely with those who were looking to buy. I would argue that Park Cities Real Estate is the most efficient "market"* you will ever see in the real estate.

* market = "1.5m to 2.5m"

.
I am most certainly not the fount of real estate knowlege that TC80 is, but i know of one stat that really backs up her point.

A gorgeous midsize 1920's tudor sold in 2000 for 785k, sold again in 2007 for just under 1.2m, again in 2010 for 1m, and again last year for more than 1.2m. Very well maintained but no major updates from 2000 to 2014. I didnt live here from 2009-2011 but i know a lot of people who bought and sold then. I do think some buyers in the park cities during that time frame got some relatively good deals.

I realize the 1.2m price range falls outside your definition of "market" but i think it falls in the reprsentative range for the area.
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Old 04-03-2015, 09:59 AM
 
382 posts, read 463,586 times
Reputation: 227
Came across this study by Texas A&M RE Center:
http://www.recenter.tamu.edu/pdf/2092.pdf

"Perhaps the best case scenario for Texas in 2015 is a slowdown in the economic growth rate rather than an absolute decline"

In essence, between economic diversification (compare to the last big downturn in housing), and lower banking leverage / exposure, they think Texas will fare well in 2015.

Recent market activity suggests that here in Dallas, it is not bad, as we are into the season for heavy RE activity.
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