2017 housing demand timing (Dallas, Plano, McKinney: renting, houses, transfer)

[Johnhw2]

Interesting article on the liberty mutual project today, breaking ground now and expect 22 months to complete. So timing of the big waves moving to due area is mid year 2017. (Source is Dallas morning news today.)

I don't recall when in 2017 Toyota expects to be done, but schedule should be similar with a two or three month earlier ground breaking.

Enough jobs here to drive the area housing demand through mid 2017. Who knows if it her mega jobs will follow? For those who might think this is over hyped, today's nation wide monthly jobs creation report is around 200k. So these two will add 4-5% of the national monthly growth. Note, nationally this won't be a job growth more a move up in Texas jobs with a drop in California from Toyota. I am not clear on liberty mutual if this is a new operating for them or a consolidation like Toyota into Texas. Either way good news for Dfw.

[Telegan]

From what I recall reading, the Liberty Mutual move is a consolidation. They were supposed to be moving people here in January and are renting some space down the Tollway in Plano somewhere not far away already. From an article I read, several hundred call center peeps will be in that temp building and eventually be moved to the new building once completed.

[MckinneyOwnr]

Shrug, this is exactly why we sold and bought last year... Got a good profit from selling our old home after 4 years, and Prosper is just a bit further out that most of the Toyota people last year weren't competing against us, but our price ranges were the same.

If anyone who is currently living in the North Dallas area wants to "trade up" where they live, they should be doing it ASAP before prices climb even higher and have even more competition for them.

[serger]

The whole toyota move is so overrated it is not even funny. 4 thousand people or so will be offered to move and probably less than 1/2 accept. It will take several years. Meanwhile Collin county population is close to 1 mil. to put things in perspective.

Still a lot of current buyers, apparently are competing for houses with toyota buyers, lol.

[Beardown91737]

About half of Liberty Mutual jobs will be transferred, most from within Texas. Hopefully the Plano location will be close enough to the old locations that people don't have to relocate into more expensive housing, and make their kids change schools. The other half will be new hires, but unknown if that is just due to people electing not to relocate.

These jobs will bring some economic growth, including teachers, doctors, cops, and unionized grocery workers. It will also generate low paying service jobs in an area where low paid service workers can't afford.

The expanding labor market and rising housing prices will put an upward pressure on salary demands, which could dampen future re-locations into NTX.

[MckinneyOwnr]

Originally Posted by serger

The whole toyota move is so overrated it is not even funny. 4 thousand people or so will be offered to move and probably less than 1/2 accept. It will take several years. Meanwhile Collin county population is close to 1 mil. to put things in perspective.

Still a lot of current buyers, apparently are competing for houses with toyota buyers, lol.

You're not looking at the big picture. I bet most of those 4k people will end up coming here, California taxes just seem to keep rising, and here they can get a lot more bang for their buck. Not to mention, these are highly paid employees... It's not that easy to just find another $100k+ position. These people have families. So the number of people moving here is actually about 3-4 times that. That's a lot of people shopping, eating out, and pumping money into the local economy.

As far as competing with Toyota buyers for homes? Uh, yes. You obviously haven't been looking for a home personally, or you aren't in their price bracket of $400k to $700k. We saw MANY Toyota groups all together at several open houses last year. We were even asked by several realtors at houses we went to if we worked for Toyota.

If you want a home in the $400 (probably 450 or 500 now with the rising prices) to 700k range, you are competing with Toyota employees for those homes if you want to live in Plano, Frisco, McKinney, and to a lesser extent, Allen and Prosper. End of story.

[serger]

Originally Posted by MckinneyOwnr

You're not looking at the big picture. I bet most of those 4k people will end up coming here, California taxes just seem to keep rising, and here they can get a lot more bang for their buck. Not to mention, these are highly paid employees... It's not that easy to just find another $100k+ position. These people have families. So the number of people moving here is actually about 3-4 times that. That's a lot of people shopping, eating out, and pumping money into the local economy.

As far as competing with Toyota buyers for homes? Uh, yes. You obviously haven't been looking for a home personally, or you aren't in their price bracket of $400k to $700k. We saw MANY Toyota groups all together at several open houses last year. We were even asked by several realtors at houses we went to if we worked for Toyota.

If you want a home in the $400 (probably 450 or 500 now with the rising prices) to 700k range, you are competing with Toyota employees for those homes if you want to live in Plano, Frisco, McKinney, and to a lesser extent, Allen and Prosper. End of story.

I'm looking at the big picture. Half or so will move (now, obviously many with families), that's just the statistics for these things. You do realize that the taxes here are rising at 10% a year, right? Any increase like that in federal or state taxes would make a lot of people really mad.


How many people from Toyota have actually moved? Or I need to believe that they buy the houses couple of years in advance.

I personally have a house, so I'm not competing with anybody. These are just my observations.

BTW, certainly not easy to find a comparable job, but there is lot of this industry in SoCal, so whoever needs to stay (or prefers the beach to square footage) will.

[BigDGeek]

Right now I'm wondering when the market's going to crest; I think that's when we'll want to sell. We really REALLY want to move somewhere else, but as is life, timing is everything and logistics are complicated.

Thoughts on when the market's going to peak? '17, '18, etc.?

[taroberts]

Originally Posted by serger

The whole toyota move is so overrated it is not even funny. 4 thousand people or so will be offered to move and probably less than 1/2 accept. It will take several years. Meanwhile Collin county population is close to 1 mil. to put things in perspective.

Still a lot of current buyers, apparently are competing for houses with toyota buyers, lol.

Another company recently successfully relo'ed a large # of its workforce here from a low cost of living area. To clarify way way way more than 1/2 accepted the offer to move here from out of state. Everyone thought they were nuts and that there is no way several hundred people will move here from a lower cost of living area but they did.

[unknown00]

My predication is 2017 peak and 2018 down year

Like I said many times, there is a SURPLUS of homes. No one should ever say there is a shortage. Pull up MLS and there are TONS AND TONS of homes available. However, it is a fair statement to say there is a shortage of sub 300k homes that a normal person can afford ONLY

There are tons and tons and tons of new development, and builders actually have a difficult time to sell all. Why? Because all the new development is $500k+ and like I said above, a regular person cannot afford that. Eventually, it will just get too much