Dallas shines as ‘economic center of the Sunbelt’ (Houston: 2015, employment)

[dollaztx]

According to this economist, Dallas is the current economic center of the Sunbelt. What do you think and why?

Economist Perryman: Dallas shines as ‘economic center of the Sunbelt’

Zooming in on North Texas, Perryman described Dallas as “the economic center of the Sunbelt,” in terms of retail, wholesale, finance and transportation.

“The Sunbelt has been and will continue to be the fastest growing part of the country,” he said. “If you’re the nucleus of that, you’re going to do OK. It’s a good, healthy, overall economy.”

In Dallas-Fort Worth, the economy is strong, job growth is solid and the housing and office markets are robust.

[EDS_]

It's utterly not debatable and it hasn't been for a number of years.


Over the next 50 years:
1. Houston will the the engine of the economic powerhouse that runs from - more or less - Corpus to Tampa Bay - this is and will be an import/export/light manufacturing super hub - but it's closely tied to O&G so it will suffer booms and busts to a degree for several decades hence.

2. Dallas overlaps much of the above plus Dallas (well anyplace within a 100 mile circle) functions as an inland sea port/transportation - air and terestrial/banking/IT/Law/retail lower/Corporate and Regional HQ lower cost super hub. All of that and nicely insulated for the O&G boom and bust cycle.

If we smooth for population and adjust for local money value it's likely that both DFW and Houston have surpassed Chicago as the 3rd and 4th real GDP generators in the country among the big cities.


FWIIW Perryman has been right so often and wrong so infrequently that he is one of the 3/4/5 economic voices that I listen too carefully.

[Transplanted99]

Originally Posted by EDS_

It's utterly not debatable and it hasn't been for a number of years.

FWIIW Perryman has been right so often and wrong so infrequently that he is one of the 3/4/5 economic voices that I listen too carefully.

Interesting assessment. Agree.

Who are the other economists? I'll put them on my watch list.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by Transplanted99

Interesting assessment. Agree.

Who are the other economists? I'll put them on my watch list.

On the left Brad DeLong............DeLong is a brilliant, very liberal and he is a very nice guy who also has a great sense of humor.

bradford-delong.com

Brad DeLong « The Berkeley Blog



Another on the left Jeffrey Sachs.......Sachs with a lot of success fights to end poverty.


Full Bio: Jeffrey D. Sachs - The Earth Institute - Columbia University


________

On the right Edward C. Prescott............very technical business cycle, equilibrium macroeconomic stuff.

https://ideas.repec.org/e/ppr10.html#works

Edward Lazear............a great labor economist.

Edward Lazear | Stanford Graduate School of Business

I really like Thomas Sowell too. Everyone should keep a copy of his book, "Basic Economics" around for reference.


My very favorites are all dead. Friedman, Keynes, Samuelson and some game theory greats like Morgenstern, Nash, von Neumann, Brouwer, Bernoulli, Allais etc. Allais in particular is a very under-appreciated figure in game theory, decision theory and macroeconomics.....he and Samuelson at more or less the same time developed Overlapping Generations Modeling independently. Allais was also a physicist. He developed both "The Allais Paradox" in economics and "The Allais Effect" in physics.


Perryman cranks out stuff like this all the time and he has for decades.

http://perrymangroup.com/forecast-data/metroplex.pdf

The Perryman Group | An Economic and Financial Analysis Firm (you could read Perryman's work for a long time).

[Transplanted99]

Thanks for the list.

Friedman is absolutely one of my all time favorites. His writing and speaking is rather down to earth and consumable by the average joe.

[KerrTown]

Originally Posted by EDS_

It's utterly not debatable and it hasn't been for a number of years.


Over the next 50 years:
1. Houston will the the engine of the economic powerhouse that runs from - more or less - Corpus to Tampa Bay - this is and will be an import/export/light manufacturing super hub - but it's closely tied to O&G so it will suffer booms and busts to a degree for several decades hence.

2. Dallas overlaps much of the above plus Dallas (well anyplace within a 100 mile circle) functions as an inland sea port/transportation - air and terestrial/banking/IT/Law/retail lower/Corporate and Regional HQ lower cost super hub. All of that and nicely insulated for the O&G boom and bust cycle.

If we smooth for population and adjust for local money value it's likely that both DFW and Houston have surpassed Chicago as the 3rd and 4th real GDP generators in the country among the big cities.

Houston can do all the things Dallas can (air and terestrial/banking/IT/Law/retail lower/Corporate and Regional HQ lower cost super hub) but Dallas does not have the coastline to receive the ships and load/unload them (the Trinity River is non-navigable). "Inland sea port/transportation" is really a glorified term of being a sorting center for the Port of Houston, much like "sanitation engineer". With I-69 going from the Rio Grande Valley (into Mexico) to East Texas, Houston has a complete connections in all directions to be a logistics hub. Houston is THE vital link between the Gulf Coast (region you described) and the inland Texas Triangle.

Dallas is not a magnet for a particular industry(-ies). What's stopping a company from leaving DFW/Texas altogether to chase the newest greener pasture as they tire of Dallas (e.g. Charlotte)? The new place is offering tax incentives and the standard-of-living that Dallas had when they first moved. Houston has the Energy Industry, San Francisco: Silicon Valley, Los Angeles: Entertainment. Each company contributing to the synergy that makes companies compelled to stay. Being low-cost forever and catering to vagabonds is not a sustainable strategy.

But the Dallas and Houston fight could be moot. California is booming again. Chicago is popular for East Coasters who want the urban environment with the cheaper cost-of-living. Atlanta is the cornerstone of the Southeast U.S. And Florida is trying to replicate the "Texas Miracle"--it's now the 4th most populous state.

[Aceraceae]

Houston people make me laugh. So sensitive.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by KerrTown

Houston can do all the things Dallas can (air and terestrial/banking/IT/Law/retail lower/Corporate and Regional HQ lower cost super hub) but Dallas does not have the coastline to receive the ships and load/unload them (the Trinity River is non-navigable). "Inland sea port/transportation" is really a glorified term of being a sorting center for the Port of Houston, much like "sanitation engineer". With I-69 going from the Rio Grande Valley (into Mexico) to East Texas, Houston has a complete connections in all directions to be a logistics hub. Houston is THE vital link between the Gulf Coast (region you described) and the inland Texas Triangle.

Dallas is not a magnet for a particular industry(-ies). What's stopping a company from leaving DFW/Texas altogether to chase the newest greener pasture as they tire of Dallas (e.g. Charlotte)? The new place is offering tax incentives and the standard-of-living that Dallas had when they first moved. Houston has the Energy Industry, San Francisco: Silicon Valley, Los Angeles: Entertainment. Each company contributing to the synergy that makes companies compelled to stay. Being low-cost forever and catering to vagabonds is not a sustainable strategy.

But the Dallas and Houston fight could be moot. California is booming again. Chicago is popular for East Coasters who want the urban environment with the cheaper cost-of-living. Atlanta is the cornerstone of the Southeast U.S. And Florida is trying to replicate the "Texas Miracle"--it's now the 4th most populous state.

Decaf bro. I'm not bashing Houston. I like Houston a lot.

Dallas has a more diversifed economy, with the current and hopefully short lived, oil bust the economic numbers are looking better for Dallas over Houston, U3 unemployment is roughly 17% worse in Houston Metro than DFW 4.7% vs. 3.9% as of the late info.

It's better for the country when all key metropolitan areas are thriving economically. California with all of the good news lately still has very poor U3 numbers. The worst of any of the big states - Texas has the best big state U3 numbers by quite a bit.

CA has the worst U6 unemployment of the big states and about 4th worst in the country. U6 includes those working part time who want full time work and those who have significantly given up looking over the preceding 12 mos.

These numbers trail a bit but U6 in CA was 13.3% through 3Q 2015. 8.5% in Texas. FWIIW U6 in the LA Basin is 15.0% - good grief! Even now after years of "recovery" CA still sports between 25 and 30% of all welfare recipients in The USA.

CA has dozens of cities and towns where the COL adjusted "real" poverty line is between $55K and $65K.

CA has right at the worst income/wealth inequality metrics of any state. It's become a giant version of NYC or Boston......with unusual concentrations of the wealthy and the very wealthy, a vibrant and relatively large upper middle class, a scrambling and likely shrinking middle and lower middle class and huge numbers stuck in the lower classes, living in real poverty.

Just looking at U3 numbers CA appears to be doing well. And it is doing better for sure. However, starting from almost last place with a huge population it's easy for CA to post fine looking gross and percentage numbers for a while as is it attempts to move out of the bottom 4 or 5 states in terms of overall employment health - CA at 5.9% U3 is still in 41st place.

At this rate of improvement it will take CA 5 to 7 recession free years to approximate where Texas is now.

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by dollaztx

According to this economist, Dallas is the current economic center of the Sunbelt. What do you think and why?

Economist Perryman: Dallas shines as ‘economic center of the Sunbelt’

Its curious that Perryman calls DFW the "economic center of the sunbelt" when at the same time his own economic stats and forecast show Houston having a significantly larger overall economy in terms of the value of economic output, and his forecast for the next 5 years shows Houstons economy growing at a faster rate as well.

I think its one of those cases where you have to consider who he is speaking too and where he is speaking to them.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by Jack Lance

Its curious that Perryman calls DFW the "economic center of the sunbelt" when at the same time his own economic stats and forecast show Houston having a significantly larger overall economy in terms of the value of economic output, and his forecast for the next 5 years shows Houstons economy growing at a faster rate as well.

I think its one of those cases where you have to consider who he is speaking too and where he is speaking to them.

What growth and value projections are you talking about?