Dallas market now bubblish?? (home, job transfer, costs)

[TurtleCreek80]

Originally Posted by richard88

Those are great info ! Are there similiar info breaking down in cities ? Plano, Frisco ? Thanks !

The Dallas Morning News reports quarterly in the business section.

Where home prices are rising the fastest in D-FW | Dallas Morning News


Here are some of the areas that come up frequently on City Data:

$1.125M Park Cities
$783k North Dallas/ Preston Hollow
$650k Southlake
$371k Coppell
$346k Uptown/ Oak Lawn
$340k Frisco
$335k Northeast Dallas/ includes Lake Highlands
$320k East Dallas
$299k Plano
$290k Allen
$275k McKinney
$239k Rockwall
$228k Richardson
$228k Carrollton-Farmers Branch
$225k Irving
$205k Sasche-Rowlett
$195k The Colony
$163k DeSoto
$154k Arlington
$145k Cedar Hill

Grapevine

[J.Thomas]

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

NTREIS (North Texas Real Estate Information Service) IS the DFW MLS.

TurtleCreek you need to give us more info.

I don't care about DFW Area.

I'm looking for Dallas only and found some numbers like $240K but not $290K like here.

Dallas shouldn't be here.

There are way too many hotter markets.

Also interesting to see there are no cities from Mexico

Is Mexico like dirt cheap

[TurtleCreek80]

Originally Posted by J.Thomas

TurtleCreek you need to give us more info.

I don't care about DFW Area.

I'm looking for Dallas only and found some numbers like $240K but not $290K like here.

Dallas shouldn't be here.

There are way too many hotter markets.

Also interesting to see there are no cities from Mexico

Is Mexico like dirt cheap

You can do the math yourself- use the DMN graphic I linked above and add up and divide all the city of Dallas MLS area sales. NTREIS data is reported by MLS area (i.e., area 17 is Uptown/Oak Lawn, area 11 is North Dallas, etc), not by city. .

[jdallas]

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

Austin DOES top Dallas with a median sales price of $270k vs Dallas' $209k. Zero Hedge is not the most reputable source for financial news.

December 2015 and year end market report

The article may be picking/choosing which suburbs to include in their data as report writers tend to do. Just a quick search through this forum indicates anything under $250k is considered uninhabitable and dooming children to be educated by wardens.
While the data is suspect, the general impression seems fairly accurate. Anyone moving to the Dallas area can expect to spend around $300k for a typical single family home.


What the report does not show is what a person gets for that cost. For example, homes in Portland for that price would be half that price here etc. It's all relative

[synchronicity]

Zerohedge continues to be a crap source for information.

They are basing their numbers, apparently, only on closed sales within the specific cities listed (not metro areas), and ONLY for the month of December, 2015. Which means there's a ton of "noise" in that data.

In other words, it was easy data for them to get, apparently, to rattle off an article to attract eyeballs, which is really what internet "news" is all about. Don't use it for any sort of serious analysis.

(I've read several zerohedge articles, usually on economics, and for example, they've called nine of the last one recessions. So I stopped reading them because I could get better info just downloading data off of FRED and inputting into a spreadsheet.)

[TurtleCreek80]

Originally Posted by jdallas

The article may be picking/choosing which suburbs to include in their data as report writers tend to do. Just a quick search through this forum indicates anything under $250k is considered uninhabitable and dooming children to be educated by wardens.
While the data is suspect, the general impression seems fairly accurate. Anyone moving to the Dallas area can expect to spend around $300k for a typical single family home.


What the report does not show is what a person gets for that cost. For example, homes in Portland for that price would be half that price here etc. It's all relative

Disagree. You're talking apples and oranges- apples being the true median sale price; oranges being the price of entry into the upper middle class (and upper class) areas discussed frequently on this forum.

The word "median" means half the homes sell for over that price and half below. While $300k is close to the entry point for a home zoned to above average schools in an above median income neighborbood/suburb, $300k is way above the mid-point for home sale prices which I do believe to be the $209k price NTREIS published. There are still huge swaths of the metroplex where home prices are in the $100-175k range.

I'm sure it's the same with the cities on the zero hedge article; $565k may be the median price in LA but I'm sure you're spending close to double that to get into a desirable neighborhood with strong public schools.

[serger]

While I'm not sure how they define the market (metro area vs city vs whatever), a simple check on realtor.com easily produces medians by county. Collin median is approximately 400k (you adjust the number in the price filter to get approximately half above half below a certain price), dallas county is 275k. So yes, "Dallas" is getting very expensive for what it is. I didn't check for Denton. And I didn't even select single family residence.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

"Is Dallas on a bubble?" and "Is Dallas among the 15 most expensive cities?" are not the same questions. I have no idea about the latter, and it would surprise me if that was the case. Regarding the former, my hunch is yes. To be clear, I'm referencing the hot areas of DFW rather than Dallas proper. There are some areas that have seen tremendous price increases, and while there are of course supporting facts that might explain some component of the increases, I think the increases have been sufficient that there will be some amount of a correction. Simply because employers are moving to the region doesn't mean the region can't be on a housing bubble.

There is no way that Plano (to pick one hot place) will continue the price appreciation that it has seen over the last couple years. I expect that, at some point in the next couple of years, we will see an actual decline in prices. I am not sure what will cause it, but I think it could be some combination of a declining purchasing power due to rising rates, an economic recession that causes layoffs and foreclosures or something else. Texas has generally seen smaller dips during downturns, but it has also typically not seen increases like this.

One study pegged Dallas as a correction candidate because its buy vs. rent index has increased significantly. The purpose of the index is to determine whether renting or buying is more likely to result in wealth creation at a given point in time. Currently, buying in Dallas, according to the creators of the index, is a bad idea. The creators surmise that this is an indication that a correction is more likely, and they identified Dallas as one of the four most correction-prone cities in the US. http://business.fau.edu/departments/...ex.aspx#dallas

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by serger

While I'm not sure how they define the market (metro area vs city vs whatever), a simple check on realtor.com easily produces medians by county. Collin median is approximately 400k (you adjust the number in the price filter to get approximately half above half below a certain price), dallas county is 275k. So yes, "Dallas" is getting very expensive for what it is. I didn't check for Denton. And I didn't even select single family residence.

The flaw in that process is that expensive houses are typically on the market longer than cheap houses. Therefore, the average price of houses currently listed is not the same as the average sale price. The latter should be lower than the former because expensive houses are over-represented in current listings.

In a hot market, however, it's probably a decent rough guide.

[turf3]

I think it is clear to informed observers that the entire US housing market (with certain exceptions) is in the midst of a reinflation of the real estate bubble of the late 90s-mid 2000s. This is being fueled by massive deficit spending and insanely low interest rates, which push the excess money into "asset inflation" meaning stocks (it's starting to look like this effect is running out of steam) and houses (no indicating it's running out of steam yet). The only way the insanely low interest rates can be maintained is that although US Treasury securities and the other fixed income investments that track them are very poor investments right now, they are the least bad fixed interest investments currently available (Greek government bonds, anyone?)

Historically, Dallas as a whole has been less responsive to real estate bubbles and crashes than many areas. However, it appears that the influx rate into Dallas has accelerated in the last few years, plus the sprawl has made commutes even worse, so properties inside LBJ are more and more desirable. Without access to a lot of data (and comments above indicate the extreme difficulty of obtaining reliable data) I would not want to predict the details of where things are going. But I would suggest that buying a very expensive house with "creative financing", on the assumption that housing prices will always monotonically increase, is not a good idea right now.