Housing Market Still Crazy? (Houston, Dallas: apartments, rental market, new home)

[Runnn]

Originally Posted by Katana49

Uh, that's exactly what a strong, diversified economy does. It doesn't mean we won't have a downturn, but it certainly insulates against a free fall dive in pricing like what was seen in Miami, or Vegas, etc.

Thinking otherwise is absurd and foolish.

I never said a "free fall dive," I said a correction so please don't misquote me. If you don't know the difference then I'd suggest you go back to school? Yes, a diversified economy can mitigate some of the negative effects of just about any unforeseen event, much like 911. However, multiple negative events (terrorism, weather catastrophe, global market instability, yada, yada, yada) can and will cause major economic havoc. I don't know when this will happen, who does except God, but to think it won't happen is "absurd & foolish."


It's obvious that some of you work in real estate, and perhaps even lending, so your responses are predictable. I'm old enough to remember serious inflation, high mortgage rates, 80's saving & loan crisis, and 70's gas station lines, as well as Enron & Dynegy's collapse in Houston about 15 years ago. Only a few predicted the .com bust or the 2008 financial implosion. Go figure! The indicators are always the indicators, but choosing to acknowledge them is another story...


No, we aren't Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix or Boston, but as variables continue to change (population, income, resources, etc) so does the potential outcomes. I won't bet that it will never happen here...

[WorldKlas]

There is typically a seasonal slow down. I have a couple of vacancies in my rentals and am not as flooded as usual with inquiries. I really avoid December lease expiriations for that reason but both my upcoming vacancies are on m2m leases. So, I do believe the house buying frenzy is a little cooler right now. Guessing it will resume after New Years.

[Katana49]

Originally Posted by Runnn

I never said a "free fall dive," I said a correction so please don't misquote me. If you don't know the difference then I'd suggest you go back to school? Yes, a diversified economy can mitigate some of the negative effects of just about any unforeseen event, much like 911.

Here's what you said below.

Originally Posted by Runnn

A real estate correction will come again... hard to say what the actual triggers will be (terrorism, recession, interest rates, over supply of wrong product, etc) or when they'll occur, but to think because we have a strong economy in DFW insulates us from corrections is absurd and foolish logic.

A strong economy DOES insulate from corrections, it's the best insulation there is. And I see you've backpedaled from your original post, as seen in the bolded part of your post which I quoted first. So, if you're claiming I've misquoted you, I'd love to know how, since this was just a "copy, paste" of your words on my part.

Now, it's time to leave the school yard after schooling you.

[turf3]

Originally Posted by Angie682

...unless something catastrophic happens to our economy (not likely)...

Huh?


2008 financial crisis.
1997 stock market crash
1973-1980 "stagflation"
1959 recession
1929-1940 (nuff said)
1920 depression


That's just the last 100 years.

[BongoBungo]

Originally Posted by turf3

Huh?


2008 financial crisis.
1997 stock market crash
1973-1980 "stagflation"
1959 recession
1929-1940 (nuff said)
1920 depression


That's just the last 100 years.

Only 1929-1940 would qualify as "catastrophic".

That said the economy will surely undergo some major changes in the next 5-10 years as automation replaces humans in large sectors of the economy, which actually could lead to an economic crisis of 1929 levels, but it could also lead to historic prosperity as well. DFW's economy doesn't rely on trucking, manufacturing, and other sectors which humans workers will play a much smaller role in, so we should fairly well insulated from the coming automation crisis. In other words I don't think we have anything to worry about for at least the next 5 years, and even then we should be OK.

[Angie682]

Originally Posted by turf3

Huh?


2008 financial crisis.
1997 stock market crash
1973-1980 "stagflation"
1959 recession
1929-1940 (nuff said)
1920 depression


That's just the last 100 years.

I think you misinterpreted my comment. I was referring specifically to our economy in Texas, not the United States as a whole. My point is Texas has a very strong, diverse economy and was insulated from the last economic downturn. Texas was not hit as hard as other areas of the country. My income actually increased during that time and has continued to rise. I felt no financial crisis in 2008.

Unless the Texas economy completely melts down and people quit moving here for jobs you are not ever going to see super cheap housing in DFW again.

My parents paid 50k for their house in a suburb outside Salt Lake in 1980. Houses in the same town are now going for 500k. This was due in large part to all of the Californians that flooded the Intermountain West in the 1990s. The same thing is starting to happen here. Some locals are already being priced out of the market due to transplants moving here from more expensive metros. Builders are not building new construction under 200k. Prices are only going to continue to rise in desirable areas or areas with short commutes. Ten years ago you could buy a brand new starter house in far north Fort Worth for 120k-150k. The price point in that area has increased significantly. New construction in 76131 is now 250-400k.

[serger]

Originally Posted by turf3

Huh?


2008 financial crisis.
1997 stock market crash
1973-1980 "stagflation"
1959 recession
1929-1940 (nuff said)
1920 depression


That's just the last 100 years.

You are not going to convince many here, for whatever reason people have short memory.

Btw, even if nothing really bad, like the things above, happens anytime soon, there is still a problem, that's very Texas specific - with the huge rise in house prices, a lot of people are very overextended, and then the huge increases in property tax and insurance come in, year after year.

The comments that Texas didn't suffer much in the previous meltdown are laughable, there was not much of a boom in house prices back then, so less of a bust

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by serger

You are not going to convince many here, for whatever reason people have short memory.

Btw, even if nothing really bad, like the things above, happens anytime soon, there is still a problem, that's very Texas specific - with the huge rise in house prices, a lot of people are very overextended, and then the huge increases in property tax and insurance come in, year after year.

The comments that Texas didn't suffer much in the previous meltdown are laughable, there was not much of a boom in house prices back then, so less of a bust

So I guess you're planning shorts on the banks, mortgage companies and home builders? And where's you evidence that, "a lot of people are very overextended"?

[ea0337]

Originally Posted by serger

Btw, even if nothing really bad, like the things above, happens anytime soon, there is still a problem, that's very Texas specific - with the huge rise in house prices

The run-up in housing prices has happened in markets all over the country. Denver, Seattle, Portland, Boston, SF ... its a long list. It is not a local problem, IMO. If the housing market adjusts to a new economic reality, that too will happen nationwide. At that time (2017-18), DFW will have a growing local economy to act as a buffer.

[serger]

Originally Posted by ea0337

The run-up in housing prices has happened in markets all over the country. Denver, Seattle, Portland, Boston, SF ... its a long list. It is not a local problem, IMO. If the housing market adjusts to a new economic reality, that too will happen nationwide. At that time (2017-18), DFW will have a growing local economy to act as a buffer.

What I meant is, that many of the other overheated markets don't have quite the same property tax/insurance issue. For instance, in California, there is prop 13, that limits property tax increase to 1%, so there is not much change going forward. And on the insurance side, well, the insurance companies will need to recover the cost of a lot of roofs and a lot of cars. So we'll see how that goes. The point is, yes, you can get an extremely low mortgage rate today, and that's not going to change, but the other costs going forward are changing very rapidly.