Questions for people who moved from CA to DFW... (Dallas: 2013, transfer)

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

I don't know that I would say there is a mass exodus from California occurring. All of the numbers I can find show that California is increasing in population at a rate close to what it has always done.

This is sort of like the classic insurance company claims about how the average person who switched saved $500. Obviously, the only people who are going to switch are people who are going to save money. That doesn't mean the average person would save money by switching.

Similarly, people who move to Texas from California are probably unhappy with some aspect of California. I don't think that is an accurate representation of California generally.

[BongoBungo]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

I don't know that I would say there is a mass exodus from California occurring. All of the numbers I can find show that California is increasing in population at a rate close to what it has always done.

This is sort of like the classic insurance company claims about how the average person who switched saved $500. Obviously, the only people who are going to switch are people who are going to save money. That doesn't mean the average person would save money by switching.

Similarly, people who move to Texas from California are probably unhappy with some aspect of California. I don't think that is an accurate representation of California generally.

California's population only grew at a rate between 0.5% and 1% between July 1st, 2015 and July 1st, 2016. During that same time frame, Texas' population grew at a rate between 1.5% and 2.03%

State population growth 2016 - Business Insider

All the states adjacent to California also grew at a high rate during that time period, so the data does still may be consistent with the idea that there's a mass exodus from California - the mass exodus just hasn't exceeded the population growth of the residents plus influx of people moving to California. Now there is definitely a mass exodus from New York - it actually lost population!

[octo]

Originally Posted by CREW747

Really good insight...

What a shame that such a beautiful state seems to be in somewhat of a downward spiral.How did it get to this point?When did California become a place for the rich and the poor but not people in th middle?Why are the middle class expected to pick up the tab there?

I think that's awful hyperbole.

One reason why housing is so expensive there is that a ton of people have enough money to pay for those houses. Those can't all be the rich. It has to be the middle class. There are millions of homeowners in California and that mass of people must significantly overlap with the middle class.

Those who flee that state for economic reasons won't significantly drain it of people. Because if this would drain CA of the middle class then housing would become cheaper due to oversupply and people would stop leaving the state and others (e.g. people who can't stand Texas politics - this goes both ways) would move in.

[Shysister]

Originally Posted by WorldKlas

I have maintained a primary residence in the DFW area since 1978, but during that time I have also had a condo in San Diego (downtown) and my parents lived in the SF Bay area. For about 3 years, I was spending about 4 months each year in the Bay area as my mother's health declined and finally to renovate and sell her house. Were it not for the high cost of real estate, I would live either in San Diego or San Franscisco.

Good weather brings people outside and extends their living to the outside. I also love the individual identities of the towns along the coastline of CA. There are some DFW towns that actually feel like real towns, but for the most part one can't tell much of a difference between one burb and another. In the DFW area there are fewer open markets, fewer town festivals that are unique, and just in general less happening outside -- where I love to be.

These days, I am splitting time between DFW and the Las Vegas Valley area. The weather is fabulous and low humidity and there's great trails all around. Hiking 2x a week. From our place we can drive in 45 min to skiing in Mt. Charleston -- and summer hikes at 68 degrees! And its 4 hours to Flagstaff and 5 hours to San Diego by car. And of course lots of low cost shows on the strip and free parking for "locals." Goodbye TX drivers license! And there seem to be more people here in the LV Valley who moved from CA than in Dallas.

Yeah my cousin moved from Cali to LV and loves it.

[Shysister]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

I don't know that I would say there is a mass exodus from California occurring. All of the numbers I can find show that California is increasing in population at a rate close to what it has always done.

This is sort of like the classic insurance company claims about how the average person who switched saved $500. Obviously, the only people who are going to switch are people who are going to save money. That doesn't mean the average person would save money by switching.

Similarly, people who move to Texas from California are probably unhappy with some aspect of California. I don't think that is an accurate representation of California generally.

Right not to mention all the people that move out of Cali only to return a few years later. I know a couple of realtors and the majority of their applicants are from people that are moving back and one of them said his applicant pool consist of a lot of Texans.


So while yes there are people moving out of Cali the senses is not going to really reflect the real numbers when in 5 yrs a large number of those people will have moved back. That's why Cali will continue to grow no matter what and now that Dallas is not willing to put money into their film/production, that's going to make more people who are into film leave Dallas and move to Cali given there is no growth in the film industry there.

[Shysister]

Originally Posted by octo

I think that's awful hyperbole.

One reason why housing is so expensive there is that a ton of people have enough money to pay for those houses. Those can't all be the rich. It has to be the middle class. There are millions of homeowners in California and that mass of people must significantly overlap with the middle class.

Those who flee that state for economic reasons won't significantly drain it of people. Because if this would drain CA of the middle class then housing would become cheaper due to oversupply and people would stop leaving the state and others (e.g. people who can't stand Texas politics - this goes both ways) would move in.

Yep and the housing continues to increase so the demand is there and will continue to be because real estate is not the primary allure for Cali however that is the primary reason people move to Texas.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

I don't know that I would say there is a mass exodus from California occurring. All of the numbers I can find show that California is increasing in population at a rate close to what it has always done.

This is sort of like the classic insurance company claims about how the average person who switched saved $500. Obviously, the only people who are going to switch are people who are going to save money. That doesn't mean the average person would save money by switching.

Similarly, people who move to Texas from California are probably unhappy with some aspect of California. I don't think that is an accurate representation of California generally.

CA's rate of growth has been trending downward for many years.

Golden state population trends | first tuesday Journal

[whj3773]

everything about CA, including the government, pretty much tells the middle class working people to f off. sky high taxes, limited development, massive welfare state, massive importation of third world immigrants and competition with foreign rich people as well. ca is for the rich liberal elites, immigrants (legal and illegal), and and welfare recipients, theres really not much room for anyone else

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by BongoBungo

California's population only grew at a rate between 0.5% and 1% between July 1st, 2015 and July 1st, 2016. During that same time frame, Texas' population grew at a rate between 1.5% and 2.03%

State population growth 2016 - Business Insider

But we aren't comparing the population growth of Texas to the population growth of California. That's a totally unrelated question. But notice something here: Texas, a state that people on this board fall over themselves about regarding its tremendous growth, is growing at a rate of 1.5-2%. California, a state with supposedly a mass exodus, is growing at a rate of .5% to 1%. Shouldn't there be more room between "tremendous growth" and "mass exodus"?

Originally Posted by BongoBungo

All the states adjacent to California also grew at a high rate during that time period, so the data does still may be consistent with the idea that there's a mass exodus from California - the mass exodus just hasn't exceeded the population growth of the residents plus influx of people moving to California.

This is mathematically possible, but it seems unlikely. After all, it's mathematically possible that, only considering population growth numbers, Texas is undergoing a mass exodus that is simply outweighed by new transplants. I don't think that's the case, but it's mathematically possible based on the stats we're discussing.

I'm sure there are some stats out there that would illuminate whether California is undergoing a mass exodus, but I don't have them. My point, however, was that pointing to a bunch of California transplants who dislike their old state is a poor basis for drawing conclusions about California. Texas transplants in Colorado typically have very little good to say about Texas, but those opinions are probably very different than the opinions of housewives in Plano.

Originally Posted by EDS_

CA's rate of growth has been trending downward for many years.

Golden state population trends | first tuesday Journal

I expected you to show up with a chart or graph you found somewhere. But I think you should look at your own chart again. The current growth rate is close to (which is what my claim was) what it has been since the early 90s.

But you're missing the trees for the forest here. California moving from 1.5% annual population growth to 1% annual population growth hardly counts as a mass exodus.

[TheotherMarie]

I grew up in California, left for a few years, moved back for many years, and now I'm here in Texas.

We moved here in 2013 because of my husband's work.
What do I like here?
I like that people are pretty friendly. I like that there are a lot of restaurants and shopping.

There are a lot of things that I don't like about this area though.
What dismays me the most is the cost of living. It's not as inexpensive to live here as people think.
Since we've been here, housing prices have risen dramatically, and I do wonder if it's the "California Effect" (my term for it). I've seen it happen to Seattle, Portland (to a lesser extent), Phoenix, Las Vegas, and southern Utah.
For the money my husband makes, we should be able to buy our dream house. But our options are so limited and it's frustrating.

Truly, there are beautiful places in California that have the same cost of living, for example, the Inland Empire.
No, you're not on the beach, yes it's warmer than the coast, and yes you have a commute.
But that's no different from here.

I understand a lot of Californians are coming from pretty expensive areas, so this area will seem like a bargain to them. But if they're not leaving for their jobs, I just hope they understand what they're giving up.

I could go on and on, but I won't. I do try to keep a positive attitude about being here.