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Old 11-06-2018, 08:41 AM
 
Location: North Texas
24,561 posts, read 40,086,670 times
Reputation: 28547

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Quote:
Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80 View Post
I agree. This could be huge for the Grow South initiative as well as the continued improvement in DISD. And for the entire sector of southern suburbs.
How many of those Amazon HQ2 employees would live south of the Trinity though? We all know where they'd go...most of the American-born singletons would rent within a mile or two of HQ2 itself, all the immigrants with an eye on schools (which would be a significant number of the employees there) would head straight to Coppell, Frisco, and Plano. When's the last time you saw either group in Cedar Hill?
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Old 11-06-2018, 08:45 AM
 
5,427 posts, read 4,404,158 times
Reputation: 7247
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigDGeek View Post
How many of those Amazon HQ2 employees would live south of the Trinity though? We all know where they'd go...most of the American-born singletons would rent within a mile or two of HQ2 itself, all the immigrants with an eye on schools (which would be a significant number of the employees there) would head straight to Coppell, Frisco, and Plano. When's the last time you saw either group in Cedar Hill?

This is exactly how it would play out. It's a shame that south of the Trinity River/Downtown can't seem to make progress.
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Old 11-06-2018, 08:48 AM
 
Location: Irving, TX
692 posts, read 848,321 times
Reputation: 1173
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanJac View Post
This is bizarre... 2 HQ is hard enough, and the power usually only resides in one location anyway, but I don't understand the idea of having 3 HQ... doesn't make sense...

I agree that DC and Queens are odd choices too... why not diversify away from the east coast? Dallas actually would make more sense as a 3rd location... maybe just not offering enough incentives?... Cuomo has already stated he would change his name to "Amazon Cuomo" if that's what it takes... and DC is a lock because of Bezos I guess...

The whole process was a circus.
It makes perfect sense for cementing Amazon up and down the Acela Corridor where the power-brokers Bezos needs to survive anti-trust regulation live.

I like Amazon, but I still think we don't need it. While we're insanely convenient on a transportation-hub perspective (I work for a major logistics firm here - you've heard of us), the fulfillment-center work Amazon needs to have in its footprint here is..... already here.
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Old 11-06-2018, 09:26 AM
 
Location: Dallas,Texas
6,620 posts, read 9,829,628 times
Reputation: 3386
I guess many of you haven’t seen the new development in Oak Cliff’s Bishop Arts District or West Dallas, etc.
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Old 11-06-2018, 09:52 AM
 
2,967 posts, read 1,920,551 times
Reputation: 4672
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanJac View Post
This is bizarre... 2 HQ is hard enough, and the power usually only resides in one location anyway, but I don't understand the idea of having 3 HQ... doesn't make sense...

I agree that DC and Queens are odd choices too... why not diversify away from the east coast? Dallas actually would make more sense as a 3rd location... maybe just not offering enough incentives?... Cuomo has already stated he would change his name to "Amazon Cuomo" if that's what it takes... and DC is a lock because of Bezos I guess...

The whole process was a circus.
The answer is that these are places that Amazon's target workers want to live. Remember that Amazon has pretty high turnover for a company of their size and stature, even at the corporate level. I think the rationale behind DC and NY is that they know that the type of worker they need will always be available and that these are places they'll never need worry about being able to recruit young, replaceable talent. DFW can attract those types of workers, but not at the levels of NYC, DC, or even Seattle - they're just more popular places for that demographic.

This whole process has always been a question of does Amazon want something closer to what Seattle already offers or do they want something different that can attract a different group of people? If the choice is truly NY and DC, that makes it pretty clear that they want to double down on what has worked in the past and that they're confident they can continue to attract the talent they need to grow. I don't think it goes much deeper than that.
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Old 11-06-2018, 10:37 PM
 
8,745 posts, read 6,664,611 times
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I'll speak as a Seattle commercial real estate guy. I thought (and still think) that Dallas has a decent chance. HQ1 does well in attracting those $120,000+ 20-somethings without kids who will put up with our 35F & sprinkly winter days and $2,500 one-bedrooms with parking being an optional extra. But it has a tougher time with families who want houses, and people who want warmer weather. Central Dallas is a place where they could perpetually have that, while also creating a major urban district on an existing fabric, including a ton of housing. It's sort of a Seattle-opposite (one interpretation of their goal) while keeping their urban preference.

You're right that it seems to be about the people. Also it's simple capacity...HQ1 is getting land-constrained and expensive if the goal is to go from 14 msf to 22 msf, and every road and transit vehicle is packed to capacity at rush hours.
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Old 11-07-2018, 12:27 AM
 
Location: Coastside
2 posts, read 1,740 times
Reputation: 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigDGeek View Post
How many of those Amazon HQ2 employees would live south of the Trinity though? We all know where they'd go...most of the American-born singletons would rent within a mile or two of HQ2 itself, all the immigrants with an eye on schools (which would be a significant number of the employees there) would head straight to Coppell, Frisco, and Plano. When's the last time you saw either group in Cedar Hill?
I work for a larger tech company based out of Silicon Valley and divide my time between the San Francisco and South Bay offices. I think there's a lot to what BigDGeek has been sharing in this thread.

I'm not familiar with the Seattle market, but San Jose and area suburbs (which is typical freeway/shopping center oriented sunbelt city) is filled with family oriented engineers looking to get their kids into the most competitive schools. There's is little to no interest in an 'urban' environment as long as there's decent restaurants around. The employees that work out of the San Francisco offices (or are shuttled from SF down to South Bay offices) tend to be single 20 and early 30 somethings that do appreciate living in the city. These are the same type of people, however, that would have no interest at all in relocating to Dallas. It wouldn't even be in their frame of reference. If they felt adventurous, they might consider Austin.

So I think there's a bit of disconnect between Amazon's supposed stated goal of looking for an urban environment and actually catering to the types of employees that they might actually have in Dallas if they opened an office there. A lot of areas could be defined as urban and transit oriented pretty easily as long as the right tax incentives were there (what they really care about).

Amazon stated the below. That could be just about anywhere in the DFW area. The tech I've heard of in the Dallas area from recruiters seems to be centered around the Legacy area.

--

In choosing the location for HQ2, Amazon has a preference for:
- Metropolitan areas with more than one million people
- A stable and business-friendly environment
- Urban or suburban locations with the potential to attract and retain strong technical talent
- Communities that think big and creatively when considering locations and real estate options

HQ2 could be, but does not have to be:
- An urban or downtown campus
- A similar layout to Amazon’s Seattle campus
- A development-prepped site. We want to encourage states/provinces and communities to think
creatively for viable real estate options, while not negatively affecting our preferred timeline
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Old 11-07-2018, 12:54 AM
 
8,745 posts, read 6,664,611 times
Reputation: 8469
I'll make a wild guess that the San Francisco area tech market is 10% close-in San Jose, 65% Silicon Valley, 20% close-in SF, and 5% other. Seattle by contrast is more like 50% the urban core, 45% the eastern suburbs and secondary cores, and 5% other. Amazon is 95% in the Seattle core and 5% on the eastside's main walkable core, Downtown Bellevue.

Generally techs that want to hire young adults making six figures tend to strongly prefer central Seattle, with recruitment being the #1 reason. Well-paid 20-somethings can afford our rents and most walk or use transit to get to work, including Amazonians of all ages per their numbers. The Eastside techs tend to be more about legacy operations, or they're trying to become more urban than they are (Microsoft is densifying; Expedia is moving to Seattle), or they have engineering centers both in Seattle and on the Eastside (Google, Facebook, Tableau).
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Old 11-07-2018, 03:07 PM
 
Location: DFW
1,074 posts, read 632,532 times
Reputation: 1947
I reached out to a friend who works for Amazon corporate. They are just as in the dark as everyone else, but his two cents is that it won't be DFW.
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Old 11-07-2018, 04:28 PM
 
2,134 posts, read 2,094,767 times
Reputation: 2585
Quote:
Originally Posted by Waelder View Post
The employees that work out of the San Francisco offices (or are shuttled from SF down to South Bay offices) tend to be single 20 and early 30 somethings that do appreciate living in the city. These are the same type of people, however, that would have no interest at all in relocating to Dallas. It wouldn't even be in their frame of reference. If they felt adventurous, they might consider Austin.
Certainly not adventurous from an urban perspective. No city in Texas offers the urban environment of San Francisco, so why would Austin even be remotely considered? It has less public transit than Dallas and its downtown is similar to San Jose and Sacramento from an urban perspective. So San Fran-style urban living ain't happening there. At least with Arlington, VA, you have DC nearby and for Queens, Manhattan.
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