Softening in RE market?? (Dallas, Austin: sales, apartments, home sales)

[TooManyChoices]

Originally Posted by Rakin

That was a very rare event which has almost never happened in DFW in the past. While nationwide home prices may have dropped 40-50% in some over inflated cities, we did actually pretty well with only a 10-15% drop.

2008 was an anomaly and almost took down the US financial system. Probably only happened like that during the 1930's Depression.

Texas economy has always done pretty well. Even during the downturns we've been better off than most.

I was thinking of moving to Dallas in the 1987 time frame, and at that time there was page after page of ads in the paper of folks trying to get someone to take over their mortgage.

[Rakin]

Originally Posted by TooManyChoices

I was thinking of moving to Dallas in the 1987 time frame, and at that time there was page after page of ads in the paper of folks trying to get someone to take over their mortgage.

Those were the days of the 15-17% mortgage and the oil bust. It was a down period but the Population of DFW at that time grew from about 2 million to 4 million. Most those people eventually ended up buying homes.

We are at about 8.5 million population. It's expected somewhere around 2030-40 to be around 12 million. This growth has always been a factor and it was even in 2008. People were still moving here, the market slowed but the demand was still decent.

Everyone who waited and did not buy a house in 2010-2012 now regrets it (see op's post about her son). Wish I had bought 10 homes back during that time. The markets up 40-80% in many areas since then.

[loves2read]

Actually my son and his wife DID buy a home around 2012--in Denton --lived there about 3 yrs and sold it
They just didn't buy one after that---

[Treasurevalley92]

For what it's worth, I grew up in an area directly tied to the California/Nevada crash. When I was looking at colleges in 2008-2009 I decided to come to Dallas exactly because the housing market wasn't as bad as the rest of the country and the over all economy was much better than the nation as a whole. I turned down better scholarships in worse markets to come here. When people in Dallas talk about a "Softening" market it isn't even close to the 2008 crash. It can't go gangbusters forever, but with 1 million people moving here since I have, the housing market is fine.

[justsomeguy]

Originally Posted by Treasurevalley92

For what it's worth, I grew up in an area directly tied to the California/Nevada crash. When I was looking at colleges in 2008-2009 I decided to come to Dallas exactly because the housing market wasn't as bad as the rest of the country and the over all economy was much better than the nation as a whole. I turned down better scholarships in worse markets to come here. When people in Dallas talk about a "Softening" market it isn't even close to the 2008 crash. It can't go gangbusters forever, but with 1 million people moving here since I have, the housing market is fine.

That may be true, but it likely wasn't as bad here because it did not experience the huge run-up in prices that a lot of the bust markets did. Compare the run-up going into 2008 for Dallas to the current run-up. It is a little concerning.

Dallas over time:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DAXRNSA

Compare to San Diego over time:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SDXRSA

So my point being, this time around, Dallas has had a similar run-up in prices that California/Nevada had in 2008. Dallas didn't have that same type of run-up in the 1st crash, so it wasn't as severely impacted.

[TurtleCreek80]

Remember folks, the current market here STILL has houses selling 2-3X as fast as a "normal, healthy" market. Most of the metroplex has a 2-3 month supply of houses for sale and 6 months of supply is normal.

So until the supply really starts to creep up, you can't call it a "softening" market. And it could slow 2X the current pace and still not be a textbook "buyers market".

That said...price increases are slowing down which honestly is a good thing. Can't keep going up at a 10%+ clip forever and expect to be in a non-risky situation.

[Ablebodied]

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

Remember folks, the current market here STILL has houses selling 2-3X as fast as a "normal, healthy" market. Most of the metroplex has a 2-3 month supply of houses for sale and 6 months of supply is normal.

So until the supply really starts to creep up, you can't call it a "softening" market. And it could slow 2X the current pace and still not be a textbook "buyers market".

That said...price increases are slowing down which honestly is a good thing. Can't keep going up at a 10%+ clip forever and expect to be in a non-risky situation.

Yep, there's still time for you to over-pay so you can be under water in a few years. I have never bought in a seller's market. I bought my last in 2010 and paid $190, now valued at $252. Realtors begging home-owners to sell and I don't blame them.

When I left my last neighborhood a lot of my neighbors who bought before me in a seller's market were stuck. My son just bought in Forney, but I told him, be prepared to stay there awhile if you are buying now.
.

[centralaustinite]

Originally Posted by TooManyChoices

I was thinking of moving to Dallas in the 1987 time frame, and at that time there was page after page of ads in the paper of folks trying to get someone to take over their mortgage.

THAT was the Savings & Loan crash! Hundreds of TX banks went out of business, the Federal Gov't via the Resolution Trust ended up owning thousands of properties in TX. (Charles Keeting, Mike Miliken, Lincoln Savings etc), because of how Texas was burned in the 1987-1990 time frame, Texas was better positioned than the rest of the nation in 2008 and we didn't experience the same type of pain.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_crisis

[Ablebodied]

Originally Posted by TooManyChoices

I was thinking of moving to Dallas in the 1987 time frame, and at that time there was page after page of ads in the paper of folks trying to get someone to take over their mortgage.

Homeowner: You can take over my mortgage.
prospective buyer: How much is the monthly mortgage?
Homeowner: $900 a month, until January, then $1040 a month until that next year, then $1160....

[crazyforger]

Wait till people realize that property tax reduction won't account to much when tgey file taxes next year ��