Softening in RE market?? (Dallas, Howe: best place, cheap, coastal)

[djslakor]

Originally Posted by sanz7887

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...e-markets-2019

North Texas' housing market has slowed in recent months with fewer home sales and slower price growth.

But Dallas still made it on Zillow's list of the top U.S. home market for 2019 thanks to the area's continued strong job gains.

Dallas was number seven just ahead of Nashville.

"Job opportunities play a pivotal role in defining a market's hotness," Zillow analysts said in the new report.

With almost 100,000 new jobs created in 2018, the D-FW area is one of the country's top employment markets.

Dallas also had one of the biggest population gains of any market on Zillow's top 10 housing list.

Also note mortgage applications were up 13% this past week, followed by 23% the week before. It appears the lull was caused by the winter months as well as the temporarily increased mortgage rates.

I'm expecting a strong spring season as buyers realize this may be their last chance to get a cheap mortgage (though who is to say if that's actually true or not). I do know, anecdotally, the house directly behind me (in a different HOA) sold the day it was listed, and the owner said he got well over asking.

[panacea1982]

I am not selling or buying right now so I don't know what the market is like. But two friends of mine sold their houses with a few weeks and both received offers which they were happy about. So I cannot say I see any crashing.

[precisionk]

Dallas news just put out an article for the 3rd year in a row the DFW market is 10-14% overvalued a cording to Fitch Ratings.. Shame this doesn't actually help to bring down prices.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...ent-overheated

[djslakor]

Originally Posted by precisionk

Dallas news just put out an article for the 3rd year in a row the DFW market is 10-14% overvalued a cording to Fitch Ratings.. Shame this doesn't actually help to bring down prices.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...ent-overheated

If people are still buying, the price is correct, not overvalued.

[MinesotaUser1]

Originally Posted by djslakor

If people are still buying, the price is correct, not overvalued.

Its not always correct whether it is real estate or stock market.

People buy and buy and buy and then it becomes overvalued and then correction happens.

People got mortgages in 2008 even though they cannot afford. They bought and bought and went to foreclosures which triggered biggest crash in our lifetime.

Overconfidence is the first sign for crash. Since there is volatility in stock market and real estate , nobody know what will happen , butthere will not be smooth ride in next 1 or 2 years.

.

[TexanByMarriage]

No, if people are willing to buy at a price then that is the correct price.

Easy money from banks will drive up the price people are willing to pay, but that is because those buying do not understand (or accept) the risk it has on their personal finances to borrow more than what they can handle. So either regulators can control how much banks lend to people based on their financial reasons, or people can take greater responsibility of the financial risk they put themselves in when getting in more dept than they can handle. The latter is where people should start.

[houstonview]

Maybe someone should create a rent vs buying thread in the DFW so the thread can stay on topic vs one person view.

This thread reminds me of a SAN JOSE city data thread in 2016 I use to read.

It was one guy continuously saying the sky was going to fall I think since 2016 and how another crash was coming. People kept telling him don’t sit on the sideline.

Take a home in the Bayarea
2014 $500k
2016 $700k
2019 $1mill

So by time if things even pull back 20% he sat so long waiting and posting predicting a crash he could’ve made over $200k easy buying and selling 2 yrs later or had a property with a lot of equity.

I get it things are somewhat expensive here but I keep telling people there are deals to be made where you can do some remodeling to a home in a good area that buyers are passing up. You can negotiate on a home that is sitting over 30-60days hat has had a price drop.

[justsomeguy]

Originally Posted by TexanByMarriage

No, if people are willing to buy at a price then that is the correct price.

Are you saying asset bubbles cannot exist? I would beg to differ.

[hbdwihdh378y9]

Originally Posted by precisionk

Dallas news just put out an article for the 3rd year in a row the DFW market is 10-14% overvalued a cording to Fitch Ratings..

The Fitch Ratings are wrong. Too bad there's no mention of their methodology so we could explain why they're wrong.

[TexanByMarriage]

Originally Posted by justsomeguy

Are you saying asset bubbles cannot exist? I would beg to differ.

Sure, but that doesn't make the price incorrect. There are multiple buyers, and the one willing to pay the most get it. Now, if banks provide people access to money at which they can't handle increasing interest rates it can get bubbly, but it's not because someone is yanking up the price. It's because people are bidding with this money that really put them at financial risk. I don't know to which degree that is happening now, but if that is the trend it is inevitable to get a correction or stabilization in prices.

However, Dallas is not a secluded market. People move there from other places with a lot of equity and high salaries - so a price increase based on people with sound financial sense moving to the area wouldn't necessarily lead to the prices going down, or in any way crashing.