House Prices Are Going Up Because Everyone Is Moving Here (Dallas: sale, real estate)

[Kenro911]

So you probably have heard by now that one of main reasons that the houses are costing stupid amounts - right now in Dallas and suburbs - is because everyone and their grandma is moving here in droves.

Well the issue is that the data does not support that.

https://www.dmagazine.com/frontburne...pulation-boom/

https://www.friscotexas.gov/1454/Pop...25%20developed.

Even Frisco which is the 'hottest' area of the entire world as it is made to sound - added almost the same amount of people YOY during Covid as before. Around 10k people.

Considering anecdotal experience that I hear, it made me feel like Frisco doubled in population during Covid if not tripled (I am exaggerating of course) and that is why some justify houses being up 40-50% YOY in some cases.

I drive through Frisco and see fields upon fields of sale both in Collin and Denton sides. Plenty of land everywhere. Yet apparently so many people moving to Frisco that its not near enough.

Prior to Covid craze, the house prices in Frisco/McKinney literally stagnated and underperformed since 2014. The houses were worth same if not slightly less/more by tiny margin in 2019 as in 2014. There was clearly a lot of supply, more than enough to settle 10k additional residents Frisco saw as YOY.

So statistics are saying that in fact no one is moving to Frisco/Dallas in droves as people anecdotally say during this Covid period - barely above as it was before Covid.

Yet house prices seem to tell the story that we have relocated whole East and West coast over here. Something is off it seems...

I'm not buying the whole Millenials are buying up Frisco/Mckinney either. With medium price of SFH right now in just under 700k range in Frisco - I doubt many millennials are affording that. I'm sure some are but hardly the whole cohort.

Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site

What are your thoughts? To me all this combined is throwing up major red flags.

[jiping]

You can say these are major red flags that another one or two rounds of price surge may be coming.

Plano alone had >20 corporate relocations in 2020. HQ moves first and most employees are left behind remote-working. When the new offices are finally filled with people, there will another 10,000 new bidders competing for the 20 nice listings within the zip code.

[Katana49]

Originally Posted by Kenro911

Prior to Covid craze, the house prices in Frisco/McKinney literally stagnated and underperformed since 2014. The houses were worth same if not slightly less/more by tiny margin in 2019 as in 2014.

This is completely incorrect. Our old house that we sold in McKinney is up about $125k or more since we sold it, and our friends have had similar gains on their homes. One need only look at Realtor.com and check listing prices to see how far they've come since 2014.

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by Katana49

This is completely incorrect. Our old house that we sold in McKinney is up about $125k or more since we sold it, and our friends have had similar gains on their homes. One need only look at Realtor.com and check listing prices to see how far they've come since 2014.

We're in 2021 right now. I said compared to 2019 or pre covid 2020.

[livinginbuffalo]

Originally Posted by jiping

You can say these are major red flags that another one or two rounds of price surge may be coming.

Plano alone had >20 corporate relocations in 2020. HQ moves first and most employees are left behind remote-working. When the new offices are finally filled with people, there will another 10,000 new bidders competing for the 20 nice listings within the zip code.

Agree and same with Keller/Southlake/Westlake with Charles Schwab HQ moving here shortly. We are in a mad dash to find something or we will be priced out of everything!

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by jiping

You can say these are major red flags that another one or two rounds of price surge may be coming.

Plano alone had >20 corporate relocations in 2020. HQ moves first and most employees are left behind remote-working. When the new offices are finally filled with people, there will another 10,000 new bidders competing for the 20 nice listings within the zip code.

How many corporate relocations in 2019 and 2018 prior to Covid? I do not have the data so I'm asking. I can only guess with bias - that similar amount, which accounted for 5% growth in prior years.

Hence if >20 moved in 2019, 2018 and did not cause 40% market surge why would it justify one if >20 move in 2020-2021?

HQ's moving to Dallas is not new. So unless 2020 saw an absolute drastic increase against prior years of HQ's moving - it should not have caused or cause any more population increase as previously and should not act as a driving force behind price increases of real estate on mere merit of HQs moving here at same rate is prior to Covid - if thats the case.

I'm not excluding possibility that all of sudden in 2020 HQ's that are relocating here are paying their workers way more than previously - but I have yet to see a strong case of drastic wage increases that would account for large surge of prices.

[Katana49]

Originally Posted by Kenro911

We're in 2021 right now. I said compared to 2019 or pre covid 2020.

I know what you said, and it's categorically wrong. Prices were NOT stagnant in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, etc. They've been increasing this entire time.

[jiping]

Originally Posted by Kenro911

So unless 2020 saw an absolute drastic increase against prior years of HQ's moving

It is. Covid remote working gives companies a chance to soft-land the long-planned relocation/reorganization plan.

Originally Posted by Kenro911

Hence if >20 moved in 2019, 2018 and did not cause 40% market surge why would it justify one if >20 move in 2020-2021?

Inventory does not grow proportionally since the suburbs are already built out. You probably see 50 listings in 2018, 30 in 2019, and 10 (all pending offers) in 2020.

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by Katana49

I know what you said, and it's categorically wrong. Prices were NOT stagnant in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, etc. They've been increasing this entire time.

If you have access to MLS, you can see that a lot of new builds especially were under-performing from 2014 to early 2020. You can see this in Median price trends too, the curve was flat.

The redfin does not go that far but I think you can see what I mean.

https://www.redfin.com/city/30844/TX...housing-market

2016 to 2020 was essentially flat.

Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site
just more data.

[Kenro911]

Originally Posted by jiping

It is. Covid remote working gives companies a chance to soft-land the long-planned relocation/reorganization plan.

https://www.dallaschamber.org/wp-con...s-Combined.pdf

This is the 2017-2018 data. It seems to dwarf over the 2020 relocations and expansions.