Which Dallas suburb will die first? (Plano, Amarillo: apartments, renting, loft)

[DWong]

Can anyone tell me how people are foreclosing on $1400 mortgages?

I know people in FL and CA who lost homes bc their payments ballooned to $3000+, but in all seriousness if you make $4k a month you should have no problem keeping your home in DFW right? I know layoffs happen, but DFW has been sparred in comparison to the rest of the country.

[Metro Matt]

Originally Posted by DWong

Can anyone tell me how people are foreclosing on $1400 mortgages?

I know people in FL and CA who lost homes bc their payments ballooned to $3000+, but in all seriousness if you make $4k a month you should have no problem keeping your home in DFW right? I know layoffs happen, but DFW has been sparred in comparison to the rest of the country.

I have two words for you

Conspicuous Consumption

They can blame it on the economy all they want, but when your ass is driving a new Hummer, have a country club membership, buy designer clothing at Versace, & dine out at fancy restaurants every night then suddenly become layed off I'm not feeling too sorry for you.

[DWong]

Originally Posted by Metro Matt

I have two words for you

Conspicuous Consumption

They can blame it on the economy all they want, but when your ass is driving a new Hummer, have a country club membership, buy designer clothing at Versace, & dine out at fancy restaurants every night then suddenly become layed off I'm not feeling too sorry for you.

Ya I get ya, you're right on there. I guess fast easy money goes quick and is gone even quicker. Shame though, that at even prices that most of the country would die for, people still can't seem to hold on to their homes.

[Acntx]

Originally Posted by jobert

Define "die". If you are referring to suburban and turning into a ghetto - that would be Desoto, Lancaster and Duncanville.

I usually don't like to participate in these "glass half empty"-type discussions and try to take the high road, but comments like this one really get my blood boiling.

I'm really getting sick of this "ghetto" crap. Hear this, I DON'T live in a damn ghetto and neither do most of the people living in Lancaster, DeSoto, and Duncanville! Every city has good and not so good parts. DeSoto, Lancaster, Duncanville, or any other Dallas suburb are no exception to this.

I have noticed recently that a lot of people think that Lancaster is one of the poorest suburbs in DFW, when in reality it is a mostly middle-class community. Even with all the demographic changes, the city has seen an overall rise in income and home values. If this city was such a "ghetto", why are we one of the fastest growing cities in Dallas County? Lancaster is one of the oldest communities in the area as it was founded in the early 1850s. It has been around that long, so I don't think that anyone will need to be preparing a city obituary anytime soon.

Other things working in our favor:
1. Land - Even with the recent population growth, Lancaster is only 30% to 40% built out. The city also has a largely undeveloped extraterritorial jurisdiction (ETJ) that extends south and east to the Dallas/Ellis County border.
2. Location - Lancaster is only 15 minutes from downtown Dallas, is served by two interstate highways (I-20 and I-35), is near a third (I-45), and a proposed road (Loop 9).
3. Housing Stock - Since Lancaster was never a "boomburb" and has grown steadily since the 1950s. The city isn't burdened with an oversupply of smaller homes built mostly in the 1950s and 1960s as other inner-ring suburbs are. I am aware that many of these homes, if properly taken care of, can still be attractive to home buyers but most desire larger square footage and modern layouts found in newer homes.
4. The Dallas Logistics Hub - A far eastern part of Lancaster is directly located within the hub area. This massive project is expected to attract as many as 30,000 jobs to the area. Commercial businesses are already coming in with another one announcing its intentions to move here today.

Truth and reality will always trump perception in the end!

[momof2dfw]

Originally Posted by eskrib

With the general suburban crash, which Dallas suburb seems like it is the *worst* positioned for the future? Why?

Any of them that are more of a "bedroom community" with little commercial/manufacturing/corporations are going to be hurting. In fact they already ARE! Along w/ any city that has not kept up w/ the times and did not get better infrastructure in place during the boom. If they did not get roads widened, streets repaired, alleys repaired, good city services (libraries, rec centers, parks, etc) all in place DURING THE BOOM - too late now. Throw in the cities that are doing some MAJOR knee jerk reactions and cutting budgets and staff left and right without any regard for public safety or what they are doing to the local economy and local business owners.

Some of the ones I can think of that are hurting already or will be VERY soon:
Rowlett - "bedroom community", knee jerk reaction by city leaders to make severe cuts, has not kept up w/ infrastructure.

Midlothian - while they have the commercial it is the TYPE of commercial that will bite them in the rear.

Frisco - too much empasis on retail.

The Colony - this one is a toss up. It is in a better position than it was during the last downturns. If they are managing the city right, made proper improvements while the money was good then they might be okay.

Carrollton - poor city management and they are not good at attracting businesses even though there are some there. "Bedroom Community". Has not kept up w/ road work. How many times can you repave Josey Lane.

[little elmer]

Originally Posted by momof2dfw

The Colony - this one is a toss up. It is in a better position than it was during the last downturns. If they are managing the city right, made proper improvements while the money was good then they might be okay.

But TC's in a worse position now that the Super highway (121) carries all but a few from Grapevine to Frisco and beyond without even having to stop at a traffic signal. This was the reason so many residents opposed the tolling of 121; many new businesses are either hidden by the construction or the elevated highway.

[momof2dfw]

Originally Posted by little elmer

But TC's in a worse position now that the Super highway (121) carries all but a few from Grapevine to Frisco and beyond without even having to stop at a traffic signal. This was the reason so many residents opposed the tolling of 121; many new businesses are either hidden by the construction or the elevated highway.

The Garland problem when LBJ was first put in. City leaders did not want a bunch of entrance/exit ramps along the highway and it killed them. Hopefully the City of Rowlett doesn't do anything stupid to prevent ramps into/out of the city w/ 190. But I don't put anything past them.

[AK123]

Originally Posted by zatires

How can anybody forget
McKinney
Allen
Celina
Prosper
Wylie
Sachse
Desoto
Lancester
Duncanville
Little Elm

Frisco is positioned bad, Plano is not that bad actually. Plano is a major city with major corporations. As long as those corporations provide some type of jobs Plano will still exist.

But can not say the same for the new suburbia.

I agree. Suburb cities with their own large, successful companies will always be attracting skilled workers looking to live near their jobs. It helps when the suburb city is well-planned out as well.
Examples in other parts of the state would be Sugar Land and The Woodlands outside of Houston, and Round Rock outside of Austin. All have been good places for a long time, and doing well even considering the slow down in the current housing market.

[Saintmarks]

Originally Posted by Big G

Wilmer?
Oh wait, that one's already dead.

I'm no fan of The Colony, but it's been there long enough that a good chunk of the houses have substantial owner equity. They were always cheap houses, and didn't appreciate all that much. So I don't see them being hit excessively hard by the current situation.

Re: "Trading down" to The Colony - Ya know, when you lose your McMansion, it's not as if you can turn around and buy another, smaller house. Your credit is completely shot. You're probably upside down on the house, so you walk away either broke or in debt. My neighbor who got foreclosed on went from the penthouse to the outhouse. He's in a 1 BR apartment now.

Plano - similar deal to The Colony (large chunks of the city are 20-30 years old, and very little is <5 years old), but with the added bonus that there's a substantial corporate HQ (west side) and industrial (east side) business base in the city.

My choice for dead suburb walking? Frisco. Far-flung location, half-completed developments with builders walking away, foreclosures up the wazoo, next to impossible to sell an existing home these days, heavy expenditures on schools and infrastructure still needed, very little business base to tax, dropping property values - it's the perfect storm.

I work in Frisco and a good portion of my co workers live in The Colony. There is a good portion of The Colony that is rental, that is my thought of where the McMansion foreclosure family would land.

McKinney and Plano both have a mix of older less expensive homes as well.

I am not disagreeing that Frisco could get hurt, but living and working in the area, don't see this happening right now on anything other than a case by case example, nothing even on a moderate scale.

Frisco does have a huge retail base. The ISD goes into Plano where a lot of the HQs are, so Frisco ISD has been one of the best funded ISDs in the state.

I sell Hondas in Frisco, we are not beating sales records right now but holding our own. I am seeing some people come out of BMW leases and the like and getting into an Accord. That is the biggest change in the economy that I see on daily grind level.

This economy doomsday stuff is being blown WAY out of proportion IMO. We are hurting, yes. Priorities are shifting, yes. I just don't see it quite as dramatic as some here, however.

[rowlett mom]

well I don't see any issues with Rowlett at this time either. We are a stable little burb here. The eastern extension of the turnpike has started, unless things just go horribly wrong, we will be fine. I am hoping lightrail follows very soon, tentative date 2013.
We are excited just to have Rowlett Rd finished, although more construction closer to the bridge over the lake will be starting soon.