Which Dallas suburb will die first? (Frisco: houses, median income, living)

[FarNorthDallas]

Allen will be fine, in my opinion. It has a nice combination of established neighborhoods and new neighborhoods. It straddles a free highway, unlike, say Frisco. The schools are excellent and established. It doesn't cover a huge area. The city services are great and established.

McKinney has the benefit of being the county seat for Collin County so it won't ever die. It may be a bit overbuilt at this point, for this recession. I am still totally shocked that people are willing to buy a house in McKinney when they work in downtown Dallas. It boggles my mind folks are willing to spend their time like that when there are closer options. The school district's philosophy of moving kids around (READ: busing) to spread out low income kids is often a surprise to parents new to the area.

[Saintmarks]

Originally Posted by Big G

So you're saying that Plano and Frisco are two peas in a pod? Not at all.

Plano is 90+% built out. Frisco? Maybe 40%. The non-residential tax base of the two cities are drastically different, in Plano's favor. Regardless of where those people at EDS, Dr. Pepper, etc. live, those companies are paying taxes to Plano, not Frisco. It's almost as if Plano's city manager played the original SimCity as a teenager. Residential, Commercial, Industrial - all in balance.

And, to jump in on an earlier post:



It's true that a small part of the city of Plano is in the Frisco ISD. However, I pulled the tax records for EDS, Dr. Pepper, and JC Penney HQs. All Plano ISD, not Frisco ISD. Sorry.

No doubt Plano is in some regards the best situated city in TX. But to act like it is immune from the current economic situation and Frisco is on the brink of collapse is a ridiculous comment. So, every McMansion in Plano is owned by someone who will not lose their job, was purchased with loads of money down and have mortgages that are totally sound, whereas, just because someone moved a few miles north and happen to live in a slightly newer burb named Frisco, they will lose their job, will not find another one because their are no jobs centers in Frisco, Frisco does not bring in any tax revenue and they are just about to collapse and anarchy and chaos are on their way to this section of Collin County? Your logic is sadly missing.

Look at an ISD map. The Frisco quadrant dips down to Legacy drive south of 121. While this does exclude EDS, it does include many of the other corporate digs in the area. The ISD boundary runs thru the JCPenney property, so it probably splits taxes to both ISDs. The Hall office park is all within Frisco ISD as the Granite Park towers at the tollway and 121. ALL of the retail around Stonebriar Mall is in Frisco ISD and Frisco city limits. The Pizza Hut Park, Rough Riders Stadium, Dr Pepper Star Center, all in Frisco.

There is a snobbery on these boards against suburbs in general and the further out from the city center, the more they are railed against. Some have a liberal/green/hatred of conservative values that spark this. I don't know if this is your bias or not, but I live in McKinney and work in Frisco and don't see a big panic from friends, co workers and church members that I have direct contact with. There are people hurting, yes. However, I don't personally know anyone that has been foreclosed on. Have heard of a neighbor of a friend of a friend, that kind of thing, but don't see it directly.

This thread is bordering on the ridiculous.

[Saintmarks]

Originally Posted by FarNorthDallas

Allen will be fine, in my opinion. It has a nice combination of established neighborhoods and new neighborhoods. It straddles a free highway, unlike, say Frisco. The schools are excellent and established. It doesn't cover a huge area. The city services are great and established.

McKinney has the benefit of being the county seat for Collin County so it won't ever die. It may be a bit overbuilt at this point, for this recession. I am still totally shocked that people are willing to buy a house in McKinney when they work in downtown Dallas. It boggles my mind folks are willing to spend their time like that when there are closer options. The school district's philosophy of moving kids around (READ: busing) to spread out low income kids is often a surprise to parents new to the area.

Because McKinney was a moderate sized town and the county seat before suburbia spilled over into Collin County in the 60s onward, there is a lot of older, more decrepit housing stock in McKinney when compared to Plano, Allen and Frisco. The latter three were little more than small rural farming communities that sprung up along railroads, not more than a couple of thousand population before the march northward from Dallas that began post WWII.

Because of this, McKinney has a higher percentage of poorer people in its city limits compared to the other three. The ex swithced from teaching in McKinney ISD a few years ago to Frisco ISD because it is pretty well regarded in this area that the other three ISDs are better funded than McKinney.

But this is nitpicking and ranking 4 of the best funded cities in the state of TX. None of them are on the verge of collapsing, all have well regarded ISDs, the populations of each are still growing, business are still being established, homes are still being built. The big factor is that it is not going at the breakneck speed that one saw in the years prior to this one.

It is probably healthy for all of them to pause and catch their breath. The current downturn will undoutedly affect people in each of these cities. But I would still bet that any of these cities will be better off than hundreds if not thousands of other areas across the country.

If it is doomsday for Frisco like some have said in other posts, I don't care if you are in Lakewood, M Streets, Richardson, or any other part of DFW, it will hurt you just as badly as anyone else. If Frisco is going over a cliff, the whole of DFW is going over a cliff.

Someone, prove otherwise. This area is strung along together. Tell my how Frisco will fail but the other three Collin cities are going to be OK. Last time I checked it was the city of Dallas that couldn't pay its teachers and was laying off hundreds at a time.

[FarNorthDallas]

Foreclosures in Frisco zip code 75034 Dallas - Fort Worth Foreclosures for the First Half of 2008

and Frisco zip code 75035 Dallas - Fort Worth Foreclosures for the First Half of 2008

and McKinney zip code 75070 Dallas - Fort Worth Foreclosures for the First Half of 2008

and McKinney zip code 75071 Dallas - Fort Worth Foreclosures for the First Half of 2008

and the zip codes to those subdivisions out on 380 including Savannah Dallas - Fort Worth Foreclosures for the First Half of 2008

and the foreclosures in my zip code in the city of Dallas Dallas - Fort Worth Foreclosures for the First Half of 2008

But I don't think Frisco will totally die out or anything, because I remember when people thought the same thing about Plano. But then Plano matured, attracted huge businesses and all those poorly built houses that were just thrown up are still standing (and I remember some magazine doing an article about Plano's cheaply built houses and how those houses will only last the 5 years the current family is in it before they are transferred again by the dad's employer).

Plano has publicly said they are being hurt by people going to Frisco to shop and they wish their residents would shop in Plano instead. So, Frisco is benefiting from that.

[zatires]

I have stated in the previous post that Allen and McKinney are not well situated for the coming crisis as well. They are in a bad shape, not enough corporation and business establishments at all.

Funny thing is that, some people keep on talking about established retail in Frisco. What does it matter? Who cares about retail? When people have less money to spend, what will happen to retail? They are hurting right now, and they will keep on hurting even more in the coming years. Did anybody check the same store sales statistics for the retailers recently? Due to my work position I get enough information about the stats and they are painful. There are multiple companies that will end up folding by the end of 2009, and many retail will end up closing some of their stores.

We are only in the beginning of this financial crisis. There is much worse times ahead. Alt-A, Option ARM, Commercial Real Estate meltdown, credit card meltdown, and derivatives meltdown are waiting to happen. Subprime was only the first step in this financial crisis mountain. Anybody watched the 60 minutes segment I have posted in my last message? Anybody?

All cities will hurt, Plano will hurt as well, but will not die due to the existence of corporations.

It is not about retail folks. Retail is nothing, retail is BS, and in DFW area retail is excessively overbuilt. How long will you expect the DFW people to keep on tapping on their credit cards? Until the limits are full of course, and then what will happen to that loved retail? Will be dead!

And at that time cities that were not able to attract corporations (tax revenue) will be in dire straits. The churches will be filled with people talking about their situations.

And imagine what would happen when economy is in depression, and gas prices are up the roof (due to collapsing dollar - you can not expect the US government to bail out every bank out there by printing trillions of dollars, and dollar not losing value). Who will be able to drive from McKinney, Frisco and other far suburbs to the cities that actually employs corporate employees (Dallas, Irving, Plano)?

A good city planning consists of ample businesses (industrial commercial retail) and ample housing (single family, multi family) and establishable public transport system. Plano has public transport, it is not good, but in a crisis can easily be made into a much better system. The roads are already built, infrastructure is complete etc. Can we say the same for Allen, Frisco or McKinney? Sadly No.

I do think Texas is in a much better situation than many other states out there. But we have big problems as well, and they will haunt us deerly. Just a couple of days ago Dallas Morning News had an article about the banks calling off loans for the commercial real estate. You guys know how the commercial real estate work right? All those strip malls, big malls etc have mortgages based on shorter terms and are callable if certain criteria are not met, and usually the building owners keep on extending the loans instead of paying in full. Now they will either come up with the money, or will not get extensions. Then what? Foreclosures anyone?

[little elmer]

Originally Posted by zatires

I do think Texas is in a much better situation than many other states out there. But we have big problems as well, and they will haunt us deerly. Just a couple of days ago Dallas Morning News had an article about the banks calling off loans for the commercial real estate. You guys know how the commercial real estate work right? All those strip malls, big malls etc have mortgages based on shorter terms and are callable if certain criteria are not met, and usually the building owners keep on extending the loans instead of paying in full. Now they will either come up with the money, or will not get extensions. Then what? Foreclosures anyone?

The DMN also had an article addressing the residential builders facing the same issue.

Dallas-area homebuilders suspend operations, leave buyers in the lurch | Dallas Real Estate News | News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News

[myswendy]

I've lived in The Colony for a year. I don't think it's rundown. I think it's a friendly and very active community with incredible city facilities (the swimming pools, the Hawaiian Falls, etc). Nail places and garages are what people want and/or need. Try not to be so judgmental.

[lh_newbie]

While I don't think any suburb is "doomed", I do think there are big changes lurking for the area:

I think the challenge for the entire DFW metro is that we build big homes. Where else can you spend $200K and get a 4K sq ft home. As energy prices double over the next 10 years (yup, that's my prediction - I suspect in 2020 we'll have $4.50/gal gas and $0.22/kwH electricity) these big homes will be a drag on the local economy as more and more of folks monthly budget gets allocated to energy. We've built - and continue to build a bigger and bigger energy hole. During times of 17-18% mortgage rates, we saw a massive transition to smaller homes and people renting out rooms or converting their single family homes into multifamily units. I predict we will see a movement in that direction, driven by energy costs. Maybe not on the scale we did during high interest rates, but it will be a definite trend.

This will make homes that are smaller, more energy efficient and closer to employment centers more valuable and desirable.

Brian

[frogandtoad]

Originally Posted by lh_newbie

While I don't think any suburb is "doomed", I do think there are big changes lurking for the area:

I think the challenge for the entire DFW metro is that we build big homes. Where else can you spend $200K and get a 4K sq ft home. As energy prices double over the next 10 years (yup, that's my prediction - I suspect in 2020 we'll have $4.50/gal gas and $0.22/kwH electricity) these big homes will be a drag on the local economy as more and more of folks monthly budget gets allocated to energy. We've built - and continue to build a bigger and bigger energy hole. During times of 17-18% mortgage rates, we saw a massive transition to smaller homes and people renting out rooms or converting their single family homes into multifamily units. I predict we will see a movement in that direction, driven by energy costs. Maybe not on the scale we did during high interest rates, but it will be a definite trend.

This will make homes that are smaller, more energy efficient and closer to employment centers more valuable and desirable.

Brian

I think this hits it right on. Not only that, but it's SO bad for the environment to own and use the massive utilities these homes require. I think as awareness there increases, and the trend moves toward being more environmentally responsible, these homes are going to be problematic.

[BigDGeek]

Originally Posted by lh_newbie

While I don't think any suburb is "doomed", I do think there are big changes lurking for the area:

I think the challenge for the entire DFW metro is that we build big homes. Where else can you spend $200K and get a 4K sq ft home. As energy prices double over the next 10 years (yup, that's my prediction - I suspect in 2020 we'll have $4.50/gal gas and $0.22/kwH electricity) these big homes will be a drag on the local economy as more and more of folks monthly budget gets allocated to energy. We've built - and continue to build a bigger and bigger energy hole. During times of 17-18% mortgage rates, we saw a massive transition to smaller homes and people renting out rooms or converting their single family homes into multifamily units. I predict we will see a movement in that direction, driven by energy costs. Maybe not on the scale we did during high interest rates, but it will be a definite trend.

This will make homes that are smaller, more energy efficient and closer to employment centers more valuable and desirable.

Brian

I do not think it will get that bad, but energy costs relative to income will continue to increase in my opinion. I hear people at work complain about $500 electric bills in summer and I cannot believe my ears. Crazy. My highest electric bill in this nearly uninsulated 50 year old house has been $160, and I can improve on that by further regulating my usage and adding a lot of insulation.

I live 2 exits away from the office. Some mornings depending on traffic and light timing I have made it door to door in 5 minutes. My usual commute is 7-10 minutes and I can come home for lunch if I choose. I doubt I will stay at this company forever but I strategically bought close to 75 and 635 so I am very well-placed for future commutes.

It astonishes me that people are willing to deal with a hellish commute every day and strict HOA rules governing what they can and cannot do with their property simply to live in a huge house on a postage stamp sized lot and send their kids to nearly all-white schools. As long as there are people willing to tolerate that sort of lifestyle in order to be away from the "riff raff" and live in a nearly-new home, exurbia in DFW will expand all the way to the Red River. Places like McKinney aren't far off; I think it is only a little further to Oklahoma than it is to Dallas from there.

Personally I think the further out you are, the slower your property values will appreciate in general. There are exceptions to every rule. House prices in this area continue to climb per square foot. I got this one for $104 a square foot, and the average here in summer was around the $115-$120 mark. One large property in this neighborhood with an undesirable layout and huge odd addition did drag the average down for fall, but if you remove that property, the average is approaching $130...and will probably continue to climb. This neighborhood's location is outstanding for many commuters, the school district has done an excellent job despite a large influx of economically disadvantaged and/or non-English speaking students (who tend to drag down average test scores), and I see no reason why property values here will not only remain stable, but continue to increase in the future. I think we are well-placed here to weather the coming energy price increases due to the proximity to the city (and the DART light rail) and the size of the houses.

Forgive me if I sound like a cheerleader for Richardson, but I have been very pleased so far with my decision to buy here.