Which Dallas suburb will die first? (Plano, McKinney: apartment, foreclosures, rentals)

[eskrib]

With the general suburban crash, which Dallas suburb seems like it is the *worst* positioned for the future? Why?

[Pecos_Drifter]

The Colony

[Metro Matt]

Kinda an awkward question given the hundreds of thousands of people moving to D/FW each year. When one suburb can no longer grow anymore ie: Plano they simply start a new one ie: Frisco.

[Saintmarks]

Originally Posted by Pecos_Drifter

The Colony

I would say that The Colony with much more affordable housing and more rentals will be more primed to take in those losing their McMansions in neighboring Frisco, Plano, etc.

[Metro Matt]

Originally Posted by Saintmarks

I would say that The Colony with much more affordable housing and more rentals will be more primed to take in those losing their McMansions in neighboring Frisco, Plano, etc.

No, they'll just keep sprouting new exurbs until they finally reach the Oklahoma border.

[zatires]

How can anybody forget
McKinney
Allen
Celina
Prosper
Wylie
Sachse
Desoto
Lancester
Duncanville
Little Elm

Frisco is positioned bad, Plano is not that bad actually. Plano is a major city with major corporations. As long as those corporations provide some type of jobs Plano will still exist.

But can not say the same for the new suburbia.

[Saintmarks]

Originally Posted by Metro Matt

No, they'll just keep sprouting new exurbs until they finally reach the Oklahoma border.

I get what you are saying, I've wondered the same thing. Prosper is starting to take off and Frisco isn't even half filled out yet.

But the OP was about the suburb that would do the worst in this downturn. The Colony has always been more blue collar than the surrounding areas, so I see it holding its own if the economy continues to stall out and the Friscoites and Planoites start losing their homes.

If the economy doesn't rebound, the best thing about it is that the general all consuming sprawl northward will at the least slow down for a while

[jobert]

Define "die". If you are referring to suburban and turning into a ghetto - that would be Desoto, Lancaster and Duncanville.

[Texan#1]

the southern suburbs? it's odd that the housing is relatively inexpensive (when compared to the rest of the dallas area) yet there are many many foreclosures there.

[Big G]

Wilmer?
Oh wait, that one's already dead.

I'm no fan of The Colony, but it's been there long enough that a good chunk of the houses have substantial owner equity. They were always cheap houses, and didn't appreciate all that much. So I don't see them being hit excessively hard by the current situation.

Re: "Trading down" to The Colony - Ya know, when you lose your McMansion, it's not as if you can turn around and buy another, smaller house. Your credit is completely shot. You're probably upside down on the house, so you walk away either broke or in debt. My neighbor who got foreclosed on went from the penthouse to the outhouse. He's in a 1 BR apartment now.

Plano - similar deal to The Colony (large chunks of the city are 20-30 years old, and very little is <5 years old), but with the added bonus that there's a substantial corporate HQ (west side) and industrial (east side) business base in the city.

My choice for dead suburb walking? Frisco. Far-flung location, half-completed developments with builders walking away, foreclosures up the wazoo, next to impossible to sell an existing home these days, heavy expenditures on schools and infrastructure still needed, very little business base to tax, dropping property values - it's the perfect storm.