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Old 05-13-2007, 05:06 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoPadge View Post
Based on the foreclose rate of some Metroplex areas, I'd say yes. How hard is the real question.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't TX always been in the top 1-2 in the US for foreclosures ? Even before the sub-prime invasion came through ?

I figured texas foreclosure rate was more associated with the fact RE appreciates so little (or even loses ground) here in Dallas (unless you buy in the right spot).
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Old 05-13-2007, 05:17 PM
 
Location: Garland Texas
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Quote:
Originally Posted by socketz View Post
Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't TX always been in the top 1-2 in the US for foreclosures ? Even before the sub-prime invasion came through ?

I figured texas foreclosure rate was more associated with the fact RE appreciates so little (or even loses ground) here in Dallas (unless you buy in the right spot).
As I recall Texas had a lot of foreclosures even prior to the subprime fiasco.
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Old 05-14-2007, 05:57 AM
 
Location: Lake Highlands (Dallas)
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TX has the (or one of the) lowest credit scores in the country also.
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Old 05-14-2007, 07:56 AM
 
Location: Topeka, KS
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lh_newbie View Post
TX has the (or one of the) lowest credit scores in the country also.
I wonder if there are any county by county credit score statistics. It might provide an interesting look at whether the issues are statewide, limited to a specific geographic region, or more population density based (rural, suburban, urban).
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Old 05-14-2007, 05:51 PM
 
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Renting a somewhat expensive home has diminishing returns, the higher the home price, the less percentage you are going to get.
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Old 05-14-2007, 06:35 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lh_newbie View Post
TX has the (or one of the) lowest credit scores in the country also.
Credit scores average of the 50 states range from 651-703 . So your not talking about a whole lot of difference. Texas without its state income tax makes it a business magnet. I prefer houses take a slow appreciation compared to the boondoggle going on in Nevada and California now. The funny thing why texas has so many foreclosures is that the stats show that 62% of the foreclosures are from recent texas residents from the california and the northeast. People thinking they could buy more than they could afford.
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Old 05-15-2007, 06:36 AM
 
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Originally Posted by mindsman View Post
Credit scores average of the 50 states range from 651-703 . So your not talking about a whole lot of difference. Texas without its state income tax makes it a business magnet. I prefer houses take a slow appreciation compared to the boondoggle going on in Nevada and California now. The funny thing why texas has so many foreclosures is that the stats show that 62% of the foreclosures are from recent texas residents from the california and the northeast. People thinking they could buy more than they could afford.
Where did you see this percentage ? That seems really high ? 62% ? Texas has always been in the news for foreclosure percentages, even before the colonial invasion that is happening now.

I have known a few people to move here and take the entire nut they made on their CA home and drop it on a new (sometimes 60-800k) very expensive home. That makes no sense to me.

Lakewooder - I agree with you on the dimishing returns associated with buying a more expensive property and trying to rent it. It works that way in any market. Where are some areas/price points that you like near Dallas. Not interested in flips because those are more like careers and I don't have the time. Rentals in areas that are beginning to gentrify with positive cash flow and potential (10% down) for about 4% appreciation per year are what I'd like to find. PM me if you have specifics that cannot be posted here.
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Old 05-19-2007, 09:16 AM
 
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Default 4% per year appreciation and positive cash flow on 10% down is tough...

4% appreciation year-over-year is iffy in DFW. We've seen that (and more) in some neighborhoods recently (while Florida was running 12% per year, we were overheated in our own way), but now that reality has settled in I'm afaid its back to the old "rate of inflation" RE appreciation we've seen around here forever: 2% - 3% per year.

Even when I buy foreclosures at 15% under I'm still lucky to break even becuase the refurb/start-up costs are so darn high.

RE rental in DFW is like the grocery business: low margin, high volume.
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Old 05-19-2007, 10:24 AM
 
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So when I see charts that show appreciation gains in developing areas to the north, it is most likely that those gains are being tracked based on newer and more expensive housing being built (moves the median home price up), not the actual resale homes going up in value by a certain percentage. Nonethless, there seems to be areas here where there is 4-5% appreciation easy. I've seen it myself first hand in many of the new communities.
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Old 05-19-2007, 02:12 PM
 
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Default 4% - 5% appreciation on newer housing, yes, but...

I think you're right about the newer housing - that's always been a peculiar fixation here in DFW - new stuff commands a big premium! Just yesterday my wife noted that some new stuff in Frisco is priced at $240/SF! Stuff in my neighborhood (an equivalent adjoining neighborhood in Frisco *but* 15 years old) is worth no more than $165/SF.

Here's another fact: My house has moved 3.1% per year for the last 7 years according to the tax rolls. OK, throw out the *last two years* however and it moved *minus* .2% per year for the previous 5. All of the appreciation has been in the last couple of years.

Turn it around the other way: take the most recent four years and run the numbers and I get 6.5% per year.

In other words don't plan on the market doing what it's done for the last four years. Plan on it doing what it's done over the last 30.

A forclosure that I recently bought in Mesquite is far more typical (I think) It's run at 2.83% for the last 8 years and it's appreciation has been much smoother: up-up-down-up-up-down.

Suffice it to say that if you plan on 2.5% appreciation you probably won't be surprised on the downside (unless we have another Savings & Loan disaster like we had in the late 80's )..
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