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Old 02-22-2010, 01:46 PM
 
116 posts, read 266,409 times
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As I recently noted we are considering Southlake as our next move. But afer reading articles like this http://realestate.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-documentid=23463615&GT1=35000

I am concern that we would be moving to a declining real estate market. Especially after our house hunting trip. We have seen a lot of empty homes with hardly any landscaping in the $1,000,000 range. These are the sings of declining market. It will be very interesting to see what the future will bring... We like Southlake but might decide to wait for another year.
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Old 02-22-2010, 01:50 PM
 
Location: The Lone Star State
5,219 posts, read 3,346,197 times
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I just saw this article too. Of the top 5 cities, 2 were in Texas which was extremely surprising to me (Austin was the other one.)

By The Numbers: America's New Housing Crisis Capitals - Forbes.com
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Old 02-22-2010, 01:54 PM
 
116 posts, read 266,409 times
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I am not surprise. TX has not been affected yet but will be. Not as much as CA, FL etc. Especially Southlake is overpriced. After looking at the demographics. Families with $200,000 gross income could afford a home over $1,000,000. I don't think that's realistic. Also even this families will experience drop in income.
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Old 02-22-2010, 04:34 PM
hsw
 
2,067 posts, read 4,346,420 times
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Not surprising
Most of those tract houses are poorly built and will age poorly
Fairly unremarkable local public schools (unlike a HighlandPark)
Far from major offices (w/high-income jobs) in Uptown or Irving
Far from amenities like upscale grocery stores, cleaners, decent restaurants w/edible food (so no fast-food/ethnic stuff in strip malls), shopping, etc
Need to view any house in terms of its location/land quality....ultimately anything valuable is a teardown for the next upscale buyer (presuming land is in a desirable locale)
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Old 02-22-2010, 04:41 PM
 
Location: Plano
225 posts, read 300,953 times
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I think the real estate numbers are going to be tied more to the jobs numbers from a micro-perspective in our local economy regarding area home prices. Real estate prices here tend to lag the boom/bust movements of other areas of the country so the stability of this area will keep shining through not that it couldn't take a further hit. I think I would drive myself crazy trying to time the bottom of the real estate market here whether that has passed or is yet to come. What do they say, "Buy when others are fearful, sell when others are greedy?" A lot of people are moving here because jobs are more readily available in Dallas relatively speaking than other areas of the country. Hopefully, the jobs numbers will stay in a healthy range here for the time being.

With that said, I can completely respect the decision to sit out on the sidelines for a year to see if some of the uncertainty goes away in the next year. In the end, really uncertainty can be the biggest bully to the prices of any commodity-and though real estate does not meet the technical definition of a commodity there are striking similarities to the price action in both instances.

I'm not an economist but I'm not really sure anyone can really accurately predict what is going to happen next in what has been unprecedented circumstances though it doesn't keep us all from giving it a shot!

Thanks for the link. This is a fun and interesting topic.

Ryan

Last edited by Ryan Kirkpatrick; 02-22-2010 at 04:43 PM.. Reason: Typo
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Old 02-22-2010, 04:53 PM
 
Location: Santaluz - San Diego, CA
4,301 posts, read 4,211,688 times
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DFW didn't have the big upswing in prices like some of the other places around the USA. Still, I don't think there is anything to be wildly optimistic about for the next year. The shadow inventory of homes (probably 7 million or more) homes in the USA need to be foreclosed on. I'm aiming at next year to buy. I've been waiting on the sidelines a few years now but almost ready.
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Old 02-22-2010, 05:33 PM
 
14,622 posts, read 27,621,156 times
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Not surprising
Most of those tract houses are poorly built and will age poorly
Fairly unremarkable local public schools (unlike a HighlandPark)
Far from major offices (w/high-income jobs) in Uptown or Irving
Far from amenities like upscale grocery stores, cleaners, decent restaurants w/edible food (so no fast-food/ethnic stuff in strip malls), shopping, etc
Need to view any house in terms of its location/land quality....ultimately anything valuable is a teardown for the next upscale buyer (presuming land is in a desirable locale)


I don't know where you think this info on your chart applies to Southlake--
while it is possible that some of the homes are poorly built--Southlake does not have any "cheap" tract homes--and while they may be overpriced to certain extent because they are not moving within 30 days--many of the homes for sale in Southlake are probably close to 1M or higher--most of them usually require (as that article mentioned about San Francisco) a mega loan that banks and finance companies are more reluctant to make--even to people who qualify--because IF something were to happen the bank's loss would be "unpallitable"...

the Carroll ISD is one of the top 10 in the state--has no apts to feed into it--is struggling a little bit because the tax revenue the past year has slipped--but don't think this is in near as bad a shape as district like Crowley or even Dallas

many homeowners in Southlake are professions like drs or attorneys with their own practices, or they own their own businesses, or they work from home or they travel into Dallas or FTW or Las Colinas

Southlake has been on a building spree for the past 5-6 yrs in case no one has noticed--there are plenty of high dollar restaurants, shopping venues, groceries...

frankly location alone does not decide whether or not a house is worthy of a tear-down--
you have to consider factors such as lot size, neighborhood values, % of more expensive to lesser expensive homes...

the reason Southlake and Colleyville have been able to dramatically increase the # of expensive homes is that both of them had homes built in earlier years on half acre or larger lots--often times a fairly small (under 2200 sq ft) home on 2 acres...sometimes in a neighborhood of similar homes but often by people who just bought land in the country and built their home to take advantage of the rural aspect...
THOSE homes/lots often can be bought for a price that still allows a builder to tear down the house and build a McMansion--sometimes 2 or 3 or 10 on the same piece of land depending on the lot size as a mini-development...

you are never going to be able to do that in most neighborhoods in the metroplex--
it is feasible in Highland Park only because there is already a concentration of expensive homes AND desireable location and amenities...
but there is probably a slowing down of that end of the market now just like most other price ranges...

the market is slow--
demand is pent up to some extent but that is not necessarily a bad thing--

frankly JULIA--if YOU don't think there is an upside to your purchase--don't make one...
no one says you have to buy a house in Southlake--or anywhere else
you take a risk any time you buy property that there WILL be appreciation--
but I bet you that some people who bought homes in the past 4 years and put that home on the market in this past 18 months made a profit...
and some people did not...
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Old 02-22-2010, 06:18 PM
 
8,264 posts, read 11,194,891 times
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As I said on the Real Estate forum a few weeks ago when this article first surfaced, a .5-1% drop in Y/O/Y prices in Dallas is hardly a "CRISIS" considering Florida/ California/ Vegas/ Michigan has just endured a 40-60% drop in value and many parts of the northeast are approaching a 20-30% drop.

Yes, Dallas is on the lagging end of the recession but it is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON to believe the prices will fall anywhere near 20-60% in DFW.

There is no guarantee of appreciation either, but if you want to make the best buy possible for your money:
1) LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION! In-town neighborhoods will continue to appreciate because they are close to work centers (Downtown, Uptown, Preston Center, Galleria) and because there isn't any more land to develop in the Park Cities, Lakewood, North Dallas, Lake Highlands, Central Richardson, Preston Hollow, etc. Gas prices will continue to rise over time and I do believe in the next 10-20 years the highways in DFW will be so congested due to our population explosion that it will take double the current times to communte into downtown from Frisco, Coppell, Southlake, etc. DFW will turn into LA, traffic-wise.

2) PRICE POINT IS KEY. Don't ever buy on the upper 25% range of the neighborhood. That's where you are most at risk. Pick something that is valued at in the 40-60th percentile and you should be safe. A big enough home to appeal to a family, but not something too big that may become passe.

3) PUT AS MUCH DOWN AS POSSIBLE. Gives you the freedom of having the money already invested in your home so you're not tempted to fritter it away on a car, vacation, etc. That way, if your home value DOES fall, you won't have to bring $$$$ to the table to close. That is the real reason why many people are in a crisis right now. They need to sell their homes due to lost jobs, etc but cannot because they took out 100% mortgages, interest-only mortages, or cashed out the equity in their homes to maintain an expensive lifestyle, pay for weddings or kids' college, etc.
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Old 02-22-2010, 06:26 PM
 
15,992 posts, read 25,889,454 times
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Agreed - good point about L.A. traffic nightmares - our area is expected to grow by one million every six years. I've been going out to L.A. every few years all my life but my sister has lived there for the last twenty something years, mostly.. I've seen the dramatic changes that the population boom has brought. You feel almost stranded. You can't go have fun in one part of town without getting a room near in that vicinity lest you face a hellish drive home. That's just on off-hours. I cannot imagine what folks must go through in a daily work commute but I've heard a lot of stories.

Another problem with some of our far-flung areas: a lot of them have homes which are going out of style, and fast. This is what killed a lot of inner-city neighborhoods when the Victorians became a joke with alarming alacrity. Unless you can re-build or you have a classic design you may be in trouble - maybe Southlake can make that transition with those large lots, maybe not - I don't really know that much about it except that I would feel stranded on 'the other side of the airport' over there.
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Old 02-22-2010, 09:48 PM
 
Location: Plano
225 posts, read 300,953 times
Reputation: 106
@ TurtleCreek80 - Agreed - these kinds of articles are a dime a dozen regarding equities in the stock market on a daily basis for comparison. Just follow the finance website of yahoo in any given week and the articles will sway from "it's the end of the world" to "we're A-okay and in full recovery!" almost by the hour

The underlying factor here again is jobs and as long as there are jobs here, the population will keep growing and that will provide plenty of homeowners for years to come.

#3 on your list so very important. It is the root of the reason we are here in the first place-no skin in the game for so many homeowners.
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