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Old 06-19-2014, 03:26 PM
 
211 posts, read 264,143 times
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The following percentages represent the population change between 2000 and 2012. Do not take these as gospel as I put them together quickly and I had to figure the county ones myself.

Dayton: -14.9%
Trotwood: -11.3%
Kettering: -2.6%


Beavercreek: 20.5%
Englewood: 10%
Vandalia: 4.1%
Centerville: 4.1%

Fairborn: 1.7%


Montgomery County: -4.5%

Greene County: 10.6%
Butler County: 10.2%
Miami County: 4.1%


What this tells me is that there is still growth in the area, but the growth is pulling people away from Dayton. As Amandarthegreat pointed out, the trend of this generation has been to go back in to urban areas and revitalize them. But I'm afraid that Dayton is lacking in some key assets in its urban core, and in some cases those assets have been developed elsewhere entirely or at least isolated from its. I'm speaking specifically about Wright State University, Wright Patterson Air Force Base, the Miami Valley Research Park, the Airport, and the Greene.

Some of you are familiar with my thread and know that I'm in the process of moving back to the Dayton area to be closer to family. For what it is worth, I will probably not be moving to inside the city limits because of personal security concerns. If I did, then I would still likely be forced to move when the kids came to school age because of the poor condition of the public school system in Dayton. It is a shame because I would really rather live in the city but it just doesn't seem feasible
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Old 06-19-2014, 04:23 PM
 
127 posts, read 142,680 times
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Those numbers seem to be correct, but if you're to believe the Census' annual estimates, Dayton actually grew for the first time in 50 some years from 2012 to 2013. It was only a gain of 97 people, but the fact that it didn't lose people is a pretty big deal given Dayton's history. Census estimates are not always accurate though, so we'll have to wait until the figures come out for 2014 and a few years after that to see if there's a trend of people moving to the city.

I'm honestly kind of surprised that this was even a question in the first place. There was a similar question asked on the Columbus forum yesterday, only it was the opposite: Why is Columbus so expensive? The answer was overwhelmingly that it has to do with demand (at least in the more dense, desirable areas of the city).

People often talk about how the Internet promotes echo chambers where people only read what they want to read, and I think this was a great example of that. "Why is Dayton so affordable? It can't be because nobody wants to live there. It's a great city, and the suburbanites have no idea what they're missing out on!" The answer is actually pretty simple: if you want to be diplomatic about it, it's because there's low demand. If you want to be blunt, it's because it's not a desirable place for most people to live. I'm hoping this changes, but as I've mentioned in my posts, I'm pretty skeptical based on what I've seen.

To end things on a somewhat positive note, I'll say that perhaps attracting immigrants to the city is one way to gentrify the city but not push out the lower class, which is what has been happening in most cities across the country.
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Old 06-19-2014, 07:45 PM
 
6,852 posts, read 4,446,270 times
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Debates on city-core vs. suburbia miss the broader point, which is the health (or affliction) of the overall region. SF, NYC and DC might be seeing urban influx amongst the trendy, the youthful and the affluent, but all of those cities are surrounded by rings of suburbs where land is expensive and there is at least a modicum of high-paying jobs. Dayton lacks the high-paying jobs, except for slices of the WPAFB community, and land in the surrounding region is cheap. Manhattan real-estate might be nosebleed expensive, but it's not exactly cheap across the river in New Jersey. The point is that a city's health is contingent upon the overall region's health, and I don't see a healthy Miami Valley. In fact I don't see a healthy Midwest (apart from Chicago). From the Appalachians to the Rockies, we have a problem, and it's not just Dayton's problem.

That said, I do notice that Dayton City and the inner suburbs (with the exception of Oakwood) tend to carry a stigma of blight, crime, enervation and decline. This part, I think, is analogous to the situation in America's major cities in the 1970s, as others have already set. But the impetus for economic turnaround in those major cities came from the burgeoning economic vitality of the region. Artists might have initiated turnaround in San Francisco, but without the tech boom, those seeds of growth would not have flourished. For whatever reason, Dayton remains tied to heavy manufacturing, and has made little progress in developing a tech/finance/corporate alternative. And when I say "Dayton", I really mean the region from Franklin to Sydney, from east of Richmond to east of Springfield.

I reiterate that Dayton's problems are far greater than Dayton itself. In fact I'd opine that relative to comparable cities in the Midwest, Dayton is doing reasonably well.
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Old 06-19-2014, 09:12 PM
 
1,842 posts, read 1,380,522 times
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That was a really nice post ohio_peasant.

I don't have time to read the Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Louisville, and so on since I can't relate to the specific stuff they are talking about.

I would bet that they all sound about the same as this forum.
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Old 06-19-2014, 09:33 PM
 
3,515 posts, read 3,798,033 times
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Wow, this has turned into a really good discussion. Props to you all, you collectively brought up a lot of points I never considered. I hardly feel competent commenting on this thread now, but I will add my two cents anyways.

I think very small sections of Dayton are starting, just barely, to be truly and solidly gentrified. The Oregon District has been solidly gentrified for what, 30 years now, and Webster Station has been for about 10. Wright-Dunbar was a forced gentrification, similar to what 3CDC has done in Concinnati with less success, an despite it's lagging commercial district I would argue its residential areas are solidly gentrified and have been for ten years as well. The only neighborhood which seems to have remained stable since it's creation is Patterson Park, excluding recently built suburbia in Phesant Ridge north of town.

But I don't see how the average 20-something can afford to live in these areas, unless they are renting. Downtown is becoming the same way. There are good rental options, but demand is increasing. Occupancy downtown for both owned and rented housing units is close to 100%. The Landing already has a couple month long waiting list. Prices there will go up soon, I bet. And don't look to Water St. to ease much of that demand.

So now the go-to for people who want an affordable house in the city is South Park. And that's getting more expensive. St. Anne's Hill, Twin Towers, Walnut Hills - those are becoming more viable alternatives. And Grafton Hill is starting to once again become a hotbed for people to rent apartments as downtown demand surges. Heck, we've had a couple theads on here with people asking specifically about apartments there, and their preference for those because of the lower price. I notice the former Premier Health building across the river is freshly demolished, and although I am sad it would not surprise me to see a new apartment complex being built at the site announced soon. Probably it will be a cheaper alternative to downtown.....

So I think Dayton is at the beginning. I doubt prices will ever get ridiculous, but I see less of those $10k giveaway houses popping up in the city and more of them in places like Harrison Twp. and Moraine. But by coastal standards, anything here is quite affordable. $200k can't even buy a house in the most crime ridden neighborhoods in some places.
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Old 06-19-2014, 10:49 PM
 
Location: Five Oaks
430 posts, read 449,017 times
Reputation: 323
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tarheel8406 View Post

People often talk about how the Internet promotes echo chambers where people only read what they want to read, and I think this was a great example of that. "Why is Dayton so affordable? It can't be because nobody wants to live there. It's a great city, and the suburbanites have no idea what they're missing out on!" The answer is actually pretty simple: if you want to be diplomatic about it, it's because there's low demand. If you want to be blunt, it's because it's not a desirable place for most people to live. I'm hoping this changes, but as I've mentioned in my posts, I'm pretty skeptical based on what I've seen.
No, I don't live in an echo chamber; I live in a neighborhood that was largely abandoned and is now coming back. I've also had the "pleasure" of seeing an actual city die. I've only been in the city proper for about three years and I can see that the Dayton of today is a lot different than the Dayton of 2012. Prices for homes in Dayton have increase--as have sales--consistently over the last two years: Dayton-Area Board of Realtors Profile - The Business Journals

If you don't believe me, talk to some realtors that work in Dayton proper--their info is what I'm basing my opinions on.
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Old 06-19-2014, 10:52 PM
 
Location: Five Oaks
430 posts, read 449,017 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
In fact I don't see a healthy Midwest (apart from Chicago). From the Appalachians to the Rockies, we have a problem, and it's not just Dayton's problem.

That said, I do notice that Dayton City and the inner suburbs (with the exception of Oakwood) tend to carry a stigma of blight, crime, enervation and decline. This part, I think, is analogous to the situation in America's major cities in the 1970s, as others have already set. But the impetus for economic turnaround in those major cities came from the burgeoning economic vitality of the region. Artists might have initiated turnaround in San Francisco, but without the tech boom, those seeds of growth would not have flourished. For whatever reason, Dayton remains tied to heavy manufacturing, and has made little progress in developing a tech/finance/corporate alternative. And when I say "Dayton", I really mean the region from Franklin to Sydney, from east of Richmond to east of Springfield.

I reiterate that Dayton's problems are far greater than Dayton itself. In fact I'd opine that relative to comparable cities in the Midwest, Dayton is doing reasonably well.


Excellent post, ohio_peasant. However, I will say that Chicago's not the most healthy region: the infrastructure was built in the 1930s and the reliance upon dirty industry are really holding them back.
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Old 06-20-2014, 06:13 AM
 
127 posts, read 142,680 times
Reputation: 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amandarthegreat View Post
No, I don't live in an echo chamber; I live in a neighborhood that was largely abandoned and is now coming back. I've also had the "pleasure" of seeing an actual city die. I've only been in the city proper for about three years and I can see that the Dayton of today is a lot different than the Dayton of 2012. Prices for homes in Dayton have increase--as have sales--consistently over the last two years: Dayton-Area Board of Realtors Profile - The Business Journals

If you don't believe me, talk to some realtors that work in Dayton proper--their info is what I'm basing my opinions on.
Thatís great news, but I never claimed that housing prices in Dayton were continuing to decline. The question you asked was, ďWhy is Dayton so affordable?Ē I responded by saying that itís a reflection of lower demand relative to the suburbs and to other areas of the nation as a whole. In other words, fewer people want to live in the city than in the suburbs, and fewer people want to live in the Dayton area than in other regions of the country.

As for the echo chamber, Iíve noticed that when someone reads a comment they donít agree with on here or on the Internet in general, theyíll dispute the comment because they donít like the response. This even happens when the answer to the question is really obvious. Supply and demand is a large factor (some might argue itís the sole factor) in determining housing prices. Itís as simple as that.
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Old 06-20-2014, 06:15 AM
 
133 posts, read 155,896 times
Reputation: 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
For whatever reason, Dayton remains tied to heavy manufacturing, and has made little progress in developing a tech/finance/corporate alternative. And when I say "Dayton", I really mean the region from Franklin to Sydney, from east of Richmond to east of Springfield.

I reiterate that Dayton's problems are far greater than Dayton itself. In fact I'd opine that relative to comparable cities in the Midwest, Dayton is doing reasonably well.
In my opinion, the manufacturing sector in Dayton is fairly stable. Losing GM actually stabilized a large part of manufacturing in this area. There were far to many tool makers and companies, solely reliant upon GM, especially with the writing on the wall of the decline of the American automaker. What was left were companies that diversified enough and or small enough to withstand the recession and were able absorb a lot of the business the failing companies left behind.

I completely agree the Dayton region needs more tech jobs and specifically jobs that retain young and educated talent. But, manufacturing is going to be a key component in whether or not Dayton (and the Midwest) can turn the corner.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OHKID View Post
I think very small sections of Dayton are starting, just barely, to be truly and solidly gentrified. The Oregon District has been solidly gentrified for what, 30 years now, and Webster Station has been for about 10.

But I don't see how the average 20-something can afford to live in these areas, unless they are renting. Downtown is becoming the same way.

So now the go-to for people who want an affordable house in the city is South Park. And that's getting more expensive. St. Anne's Hill, Twin Towers, Walnut Hills - those are becoming more viable alternatives. And Grafton Hill is starting to once again become a hotbed for people to rent apartments as downtown demand surges.
These are good problems.

I actually don't think 20 something's are priced out of the hot areas. The homes in the Oregon District may not be right for them, simply because they are large, older homes. But, you can buy a 2 bedroom, 2 bath condo in the Oregon District right now for, $140,000, with 9 years of abated taxes, and if you qualify, $15,000 down payment assistance. The McCormick building across from 5/3 Field has multiple units priced under $140,000. Simms has 1 bedroom condos at less than $115,000.

This is how it happens. People want to live in the Oregon District, but maybe can't afford a home there, or they can't find one that is right for them. So they go to St. Anne's Hill or South Park, now those areas start to turn and it keeps spreading.

I love my place in the Oregon District. But, if I had to do it over again, I would probably look for a place in McPherson town or South Park. Growing up in Dayton the only area I knew about was the Oregon District, when I moved back for a job after school, the only area I went to was the Oregon District.

Some of these neighborhoods are just starting to be (re)discovered by a lot of people.
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Old 06-20-2014, 10:09 AM
 
Location: Five Oaks
430 posts, read 449,017 times
Reputation: 323
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tarheel8406 View Post
Supply and demand is a large factor (some might argue itís the sole factor) in determining housing prices. Itís as simple as that.
And my main position is that higher housing prices doesn't necessarily equal "better"--I wasn't really asking why Dayton is so affordable.
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