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Old 09-26-2018, 04:24 AM
 
1,842 posts, read 1,419,855 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
.... but the simple fact, that that part of the country just isn't a very compelling place to live. Even if the local government were clever, enterprising and enlightened, what could they possibly do, that would be so substantially different? They can't change the weather. They can't bring the oceans here, or the mountains.
I disagree.

Dayton IS a compelling place to live on the basis that one's money goes so much farther in Dayton. Some people refuse to drive a car that's more than three years old, others would NEVER buy a new one - and they keep their car for ten-fifteen years, For a person earning $40-50k, that's the difference between having retirement money and not. That's a good analogy to living in or moving to Ohio - Dayton specifically.

I know people just now retiring in CA, age 70, mortgaged to the hilt and "planning" on living on SS after a career earning $12k/month. it doesn't add up.

I know others who are returning to Dayton to retire.

For those raising a family, even Oakwood is a relative bargain.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
They can't build a world-caliber university here.
And?

Who cares?

There's nothing wrong with Ohio State or Ohio University or Sinclair Community college. A kid going there to learn some programming languages is going to be able to earn $100k ( give-or-take ).

The family with six-year-olds is going to be able to "give" them a good pre-college education that's far superior to anything on the West coast. I can't speak to the quality on the other coast, but I'm betting that only really expensive places are better.

Your definition of "compelling" and mine differ a lot.
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Old 09-26-2018, 08:07 AM
 
1,422 posts, read 1,755,390 times
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These Frontline/Pro-Publica/Brookings Institute type documentaries on the decline of once great American cities are always very fascinating. Kind of hard to watch some of those interviews with people going through hard times. I do not believe it is all their choice. I think the system is rigged unfairly against working people.
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Old 09-26-2018, 08:43 AM
 
5,323 posts, read 6,749,666 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
They can't build a world-caliber university here.
Are you saying the University of Dayton is sub-standard?
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Old 09-26-2018, 11:52 PM
 
7,132 posts, read 4,637,282 times
Reputation: 12501
Quote:
Originally Posted by IDtheftV View Post
I disagree.

Dayton IS a compelling place to live on the basis that one's money goes so much farther in Dayton. Some people refuse to drive a car that's more than three years old, others would NEVER buy a new one - and they keep their car for ten-fifteen years, For a person earning $40-50k, that's the difference between having retirement money and not. That's a good analogy to living in or moving to Ohio - Dayton specifically.
...

Your definition of "compelling" and mine differ a lot.
Your observation is not unreasonable, and I stand corrected, in need of qualifying my earlier statement; disparate circumstances result in disparate priorities. However, let’s consider: if our aim is to reduce cost of living, and principally cost of housing, is it not the case, that there’s a plethora of places throughout America, where this could be done? Dayton is nowise outstanding or preferable. It could also be added, that many other places offer lower taxes (income and property), and/or a milder climate, or both.

Where my original point is, I think, quite solid, is that in the modern world, progress and prosperity are driven by a few superstar individuals, and by their coterie and supporters. A practical example might be some of Dayton’s own hometown heroes – the Wrights, Deeds and Kettering, Patterson and so forth. In the present time, is there anything notable about Dayton, that would attract a modern Wright or a modern Kettering? Dayton has but one such appealing draw: Wright-Patterson AFB. This after all is how I ended up here (and I’m no Wright or Kettering). But beyond that?

One more thing about this wondrous appeal of low-cost housing. A house that’s cheap today, will likely be cheap in 20 years. Unless an erstwhile sleepy place is “discovered”, prices won’t much rise. But in costly places, prices – despite fluctuations – have impressive cumulative average growth rate. Thus in a costly place, there’s a reward in having an expensive house, while in a cheap place, there’s an opportunity cost in having a cheap one.

Let me illustrate with some numbers. A bungalow in Riverside goes for $90K. 20 years later, it’s likely still going to be $90K. Meanwhile, in a decent part of Los Angeles, the same bungalow goes for $700K. 20 years later, the price is $1.4M. Sure, in LA the mortgage is going to be much higher. The carrying-cost of the house is higher. But so is the appreciation! It’s not at all obvious, where is the effective cost of living lower, once we consider all of the costs and gains.
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Old 09-27-2018, 06:07 AM
 
Location: Dayton, OH
570 posts, read 232,160 times
Reputation: 2358
"One more thing about this wondrous appeal of low-cost housing. A house that’s cheap today, will likely be cheap in 20 years. Unless an erstwhile sleepy place is “discovered”, prices won’t much rise. But in costly places, prices – despite fluctuations – have impressive cumulative average growth rate. Thus in a costly place, there’s a reward in having an expensive house, while in a cheap place, there’s an opportunity cost in having a cheap one."

I am experiencing this painful reality first hand, having lived in OH since 1992. The 1970s brick ranch I bought in 2009 has barely appreciated $10,000. When I sell in a few years, I will be lucky to break even after allowing for realtor commissions, fees, and the like. I plan to retire out of state and am suffering from a very real sticker shock as I see how little the proceeds from the sale of my house will actually buy in my next location.

Another drawback to having lived so long in such a low COL area is that wages here are proportionally lower, arguably more depressed than in other more expensive areas, so that all these years of my contributing to SS have been at a low rate. When I retire, even after moving to a state with no income tax and significantly lower property taxes, my SS check will be lower for the rest of my life than if I had spent my working years in a more prosperous state and earning a higher wage.

So Dayton's low COL is a double-edged sword. In the short term, it's enticing. But I think over the long term it traps a lot of people in OH who might otherwise prefer to live elsewhere because the longer you stay here, the more expensive and painful it becomes to move. Dayton might be a decent place to retire to, but it's certainly less than ideal for young workers starting out.

Last edited by OHNot4Me; 09-27-2018 at 06:15 AM..
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Old 09-27-2018, 03:48 PM
 
7,132 posts, read 4,637,282 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OHNot4Me View Post
...So Dayton's low COL is a double-edged sword. In the short term, it's enticing. But I think over the long term it traps a lot of people in OH who might otherwise prefer to live elsewhere because the longer you stay here, the more expensive and painful it becomes to move. ...
Indeed. Let’s consider a rosy, but not fantastically unrealistic scenario….

In a successful public-private partnership, the Dayton region succeeds in reinventing itself as a defense and scientific-research hub. Boeing moves its principal engineering operations from Seattle and LA, to Beavercreek or maybe Austin Landing. Sikorsky relocates from Connecticut. Lockheed relocates from Palmdale, to a new campus near Xenia. Northrop-Grumman also relocates from LA. Various DC-area research organizations relocate to Centerville, Bellbrook, Huber Heights, whatever… all around the region. Employees of these various firms get a relocation package, and settle in the region. 10,000 new, high-paying jobs suddenly materialize… and perhaps another 30,000 of supporting jobs… IT, infrastructure, new construction, retail, schools and daycare, dog groomers and so forth.

As a result, the region’s tax-base swells. New housing mushrooms, and new/rebuilt roads. Schools improve. Downtown gets reinvigorated, with new hotels, retail, etc. – and finally, a real downtown grocery store. Housing prices rise, or at least rise somewhat. But they don’t exactly quintuple. Right?

Well, fast forward 30 years. The young engineers who relocated from Seattle or DC or LA to Dayton, now want to retire back to their home-towns, because that’s where they left their friends and their families. Maybe their parents, then aged 50, are now 80… and need help. Maybe they just miss the lifestyle of a world-class city. But the houses that they bought in Beavercreek for $120K, which appreciated to $180K because of the putative boom, have only gone up to $250K over the intervening 30 years. Meanwhile, a comparable house in LA is now $4M (this is 30 years in the future…). This means that our incipient retirees are going to have to work another 5 or 10 years, or maybe more, just to reenter the housing market that they left in their 20s or 30s. Instead of retiring at 62 and moving back to Huntington Beach or La Jolla or McLean or whatever, they have to work maybe until 72… and at that point, lethargy and eventual senescence aren’t far… so why even bother to move?
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Old 09-27-2018, 04:24 PM
 
5,323 posts, read 6,749,666 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
I.

Well, fast forward 30 years. The young engineers who relocated from Seattle or DC or LA to Dayton, now want to retire back to their home-towns, because that’s where they left their friends and their families. Maybe their parents, then aged 50, are now 80… and need help. Maybe they just miss the lifestyle of a world-class city. But the houses that they bought in Beavercreek for $120K, which appreciated to $180K because of the putative boom, have only gone up to $250K over the intervening 30 years. Meanwhile, a comparable house in LA is now $4M (this is 30 years in the future…). This means that our incipient retirees are going to have to work another 5 or 10 years, or maybe more, just to reenter the housing market that they left in their 20s or 30s. Instead of retiring at 62 and moving back to Huntington Beach or La Jolla or McLean or whatever, they have to work maybe until 72… and at that point, lethargy and eventual senescence aren’t far… so why even bother to move?

LA, SF, Seattle, Boston, Washington, DC, New York, and even Chicago are highly transient places. People move there from lower cost areas, try to make ends meet but don't, and then eventually move somewhere else less expensive. Silicon Valley is a perfect example. Many fresh college graduates move there, realize after several years they cannot afford a house, and then move somewhere less expensive.

All of these high cost areas do not pay salaries commensurate with the higher COL.
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Old 09-27-2018, 06:53 PM
 
6,481 posts, read 3,606,453 times
Reputation: 8753
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
Your observation is not unreasonable, and I stand corrected, in need of qualifying my earlier statement; disparate circumstances result in disparate priorities. However, let’s consider: if our aim is to reduce cost of living, and principally cost of housing, is it not the case, that there’s a plethora of places throughout America, where this could be done? Dayton is nowise outstanding or preferable. It could also be added, that many other places offer lower taxes (income and property), and/or a milder climate, or both.

Where my original point is, I think, quite solid, is that in the modern world, progress and prosperity are driven by a few superstar individuals, and by their coterie and supporters. A practical example might be some of Dayton’s own hometown heroes – the Wrights, Deeds and Kettering, Patterson and so forth. In the present time, is there anything notable about Dayton, that would attract a modern Wright or a modern Kettering? Dayton has but one such appealing draw: Wright-Patterson AFB. This after all is how I ended up here (and I’m no Wright or Kettering). But beyond that?

One more thing about this wondrous appeal of low-cost housing. A house that’s cheap today, will likely be cheap in 20 years. Unless an erstwhile sleepy place is “discovered”, prices won’t much rise. But in costly places, prices – despite fluctuations – have impressive cumulative average growth rate. Thus in a costly place, there’s a reward in having an expensive house, while in a cheap place, there’s an opportunity cost in having a cheap one.

Let me illustrate with some numbers. A bungalow in Riverside goes for $90K. 20 years later, it’s likely still going to be $90K. Meanwhile, in a decent part of Los Angeles, the same bungalow goes for $700K. 20 years later, the price is $1.4M. Sure, in LA the mortgage is going to be much higher. The carrying-cost of the house is higher. But so is the appreciation! It’s not at all obvious, where is the effective cost of living lower, once we consider all of the costs and gains.
Yeah, friend of mine from college and myself make an excellent case study for this.

Both went to Wright State, Computer Engineering. I bought a $100k house in Huber. He relocated to Austin, TX. 10 years later we both sold and moved. I had zero appreciation. He walked away with an extra $100k in his pocket from appreciation.

Moved to Southwest Washington. Bought a $250k new construction 3 bed house...around the same price as the new construction houses in that new development on the north side of Huber(perplexes me how there's such a price disparity between new and used there). The tax differences mean cost of living is actually cheaper here despite having a mortgage 2.5 times as much. Said house is now worth $320k just 2 years later. Despite this property taxes here are still lower than my $100k Huber house. That's nuts.
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Old 09-28-2018, 09:28 AM
 
Location: The Great State of Texas, Finally!
5,327 posts, read 10,693,069 times
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As someone who is considering a relocation to the Dayton area for both a career opportunity and to position myself closer to my family in Chicago, I find the housing discussion fascinating. Also, admittedly, the housing situation is my only reservation. As previously mentioned by other posters, although the housing purchase prices are attractively low, it is troublesome that there is no value appreciation over time. I am not someone who looks at housing as an investment. To me it's a place to live. That being said, one cannot escape the very real problem that after purchasing and living in a home for say 15 years until retirement, that it would be difficult to sell it for more than its purchase price and could possibly have to sell for less. If the Dayton area is the final or retirement destination, then the lack of value appreciation probably isn't much of an issue. But for those who, for instance, move to further their career at Wright-Patt and then retire elsewhere, as others have pointed out, they're behind the housing purchase game, and at that point, either have to swallow the fiscal reality and pony up the purchase money or resolve to stay in the Dayton area, because leaving becomes cost prohibitive.
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Old 09-28-2018, 10:47 AM
 
7,727 posts, read 4,452,166 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cobolt View Post
As someone who is considering a relocation to the Dayton area for both a career opportunity and to position myself closer to my family in Chicago, I find the housing discussion fascinating. Also, admittedly, the housing situation is my only reservation. As previously mentioned by other posters, although the housing purchase prices are attractively low, it is troublesome that there is no value appreciation over time. I am not someone who looks at housing as an investment. To me it's a place to live. That being said, one cannot escape the very real problem that after purchasing and living in a home for say 15 years until retirement, that it would be difficult to sell it for more than its purchase price and could possibly have to sell for less. If the Dayton area is the final or retirement destination, then the lack of value appreciation probably isn't much of an issue. But for those who, for instance, move to further their career at Wright-Patt and then retire elsewhere, as others have pointed out, they're behind the housing purchase game, and at that point, either have to swallow the fiscal reality and pony up the purchase money or resolve to stay in the Dayton area, because leaving becomes cost prohibitive.
Over the next 20 years, it wouldn't surprise me if you were to catch a substantial housing appreciation wave in Dayton due to climate change refugees. Flooding, rising sea levels, extreme and other negative environmental impacts likely will become even more obvious over the next 20 years and engender a flight from the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Florida and other states likely will have to raise taxes to deal with the environmental impacts.

Meanwhile, Ohio's winters will continue to become much more mild. At some point, the risk of snow will become very remote in southeast Ohio.

Meanwhile, earthquake risks, high living costs, and even climate change, may reduce the attractiveness of some West Coast markets. See interesting posts 23 and 25 in this thread.

New Term: "Heat Belt Cities"
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