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Old 09-28-2018, 11:12 AM
 
Location: The Great State of Texas, Finally!
5,327 posts, read 10,693,069 times
Reputation: 2419

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Quote:
Originally Posted by WRnative View Post
Over the next 20 years, it wouldn't surprise me if you were to catch a substantial housing appreciation wave in Dayton due to climate change refugees. Flooding, rising sea levels, extreme and other negative environmental impacts likely will become even more obvious over the next 20 years and engender a flight from the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Florida and other states likely will have to raise taxes to deal with the environmental impacts.

Meanwhile, Ohio's winters will continue to become much more mild. At some point, the risk of snow will become very remote in southeast Ohio.

Meanwhile, earthquake risks, high living costs, and even climate change, may reduce the attractiveness of some West Coast markets. See interesting posts 23 and 25 in this thread.

New Term: "Heat Belt Cities"
Yes, you bring up a consideration that is part of my decision process. Believe me, Texas summers are no joke and they don’t get easier with the coming years. This state is projected to double its population by 2050, so water will definitely be an issue with no natural lakes or water sources here outside the aquifer (being quickly depleted by agriculture and outpacing its recharge rate) and no real plan for the future. I’ve thought about all these factors and they play a part in the bigger equation. I’ve not made up my mind as of yet but I was only stating that the flat real estate market is a concern because it’s a reality now.
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Old 09-28-2018, 11:16 AM
 
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Reputation: 8755
Dayton's summers are miserably hot and humid. Would certainly consider it part of the "heat belt". One of the big reasons why I left.
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Old 09-28-2018, 11:32 AM
 
7,727 posts, read 4,452,166 times
Reputation: 3937
Quote:
Originally Posted by notnamed View Post
Dayton's summers are miserably hot and humid. Would certainly consider it part of the "heat belt". One of the big reasons why I left.
See temperature and humidity links for both Dayton, Houston, and Austin in the following web pages.

https://weatherspark.com/y/15863/Ave...tes-Year-Round

https://weatherspark.com/y/9247/Aver...tes-Year-Round

https://weatherspark.com/y/8004/Aver...tes-Year-Round

In the peak of summer, the weather is muggy or worse only 51 percent of the days in Dayton, compared to 98 percent in Houston and 89 percent in August, and the periods of bad humidity are much longer in these two Texas cities.

Both Texas cities also are much hotter. Especially check the "Average Hourly Temperature" for each city.

I doubt many persons would consider Dayton part of the heat belt, even though it would be uncomfortable for you and certainly me.
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Old 09-28-2018, 11:38 AM
 
6,481 posts, read 3,606,453 times
Reputation: 8755
Yeah I didn't move to Texas...I moved to the Pacific Northwet...
https://weatherspark.com/y/720/Avera...tes-Year-Round
"The perceived humidity level in Vancouver, as measured by the percentage of time in which the humidity comfort level is muggy, oppressive, or miserable, does not vary significantly over the course of the year, remaining a virtually constant 0% throughout."

Next stop Alaska if higher temps/humidity become common here.

Last edited by notnamed; 09-28-2018 at 11:52 AM..
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Old 09-28-2018, 12:09 PM
 
7,135 posts, read 4,637,282 times
Reputation: 12506
Here’s another variation on the theme: consider two post-docs in computer science, both at Stanford. One gets a tenure-track professorship at Cal State Northridge, and the other at Wright State. I intentionally picked a California school that’s not all that highly ranked, to give WSU the benefit of the doubt. Well, the Cal State guy earns maybe only $20K/year more than the WSU guy, so in terms of salary vs. COL, the WSU guy may temporarily be ahead… especially if we acknowledge that income taxes are higher in California. But once we factor home-equity into the calculation, it’s hard to see how the WSU guy remains ahead.

Dire and shrill melodrama about street-urchin kids, drug-addled neighborhoods and collapsing houses, shuttered factories with weed-infested padlocked parking lots, etc., miss the greater point. It isn’t abject and irredeemable poverty that hampers Dayton, or cities like Dayton. Sure, poverty is a problem, and a problem that shouldn’t be ignored. But for upper-middle-class people, there are neighborhoods even in the Dayton region (such as Oakwood or parts of Centerville) that are quite posh and insulated from the melodramatic bad news. For those same upper-middle-class people, the opportunities in America’s secondary-cities just aren’t as remunerative as those in the primary cities. If you’re a superstar attorney, you might pull $400/hour in Dayton, but the same skill-set might get you $1400/hour in NYC. Even if you’re just a mediocre attorney, and your spouse is just a mediocre electrical engineer, the two of you will gain in home-equity (among other advantages) a lot more in Northern Virginia or Pasadena (California) or Cambridge (Massachusetts), than you would in Oakwood. This is the shadow “cost of living” of places such as Dayton.

There was on the Retirement forum a testament by an elderly lady who relocated from somewhere in California, to Cleveland, to retire. She chose Cleveland because it offered a combination of desired amenities (such as healthcare and the Philharmonic) and low cost of living – in particular, low rent or low purchase-price of a condo. For her, the move was eminently sensible, as it allowed her to retire on a smaller budget, than the realities that she’d have been facing back in California. She is, if memory serves, single, without decedents, and on a small pension. When she dies, she dies… and that’s it. The house – if she buys one – might go to a charity. Whether or not that house happens to appreciate, is to her inconsequential.

Now let’s revisit our two post-doc friends at Stanford. After 30 years in academia, they both decide to retire. Both have tidy 401K plans, but don’t want to touch them in retirement, instead letting them grow. They both made full-professor in their respective universities, and enjoyed good – but unspectacular – careers. Neither managed to jump to a more prestigious university, or to launch a lucrative startup, or to earn royalties from a successful patent. Now both of them want to retire to coastal Florida. The one in Northridge sells his house, and uses the proceeds to buy a larger and more luxurious house in Florida – for cash. He has enough money left over, to buy a luxury car, and a boat, and to hire weekly help to clean the house and to mow the lawn. The one from Wright State also sells his house, but needs to take out a mortgage for even a modest place in Florida. He has to keep driving his old car, can’t afford the boat, and needs to do the cleaning and mowing himself. Tell me again: where is the cost of living lower?

Dayton can – and should! – fix the blight on East Third Street, and other such neighborhoods. Wise government would help; foolish or profligate government would not. But no government-wisdom would put the local real-estate market on the same growth trajectory as we saw for the past 30 years in LA, DC and the like.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WRnative View Post
Over the next 20 years, it wouldn't surprise me if you were to catch a substantial housing appreciation wave in Dayton due to climate change refugees. Flooding, rising sea levels, extreme and other negative environmental impacts likely will become even more obvious over the next 20 years and engender a flight from the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Florida and other states likely will have to raise taxes to deal with the environmental impacts.

Meanwhile, Ohio's winters will continue to become much more mild. At some point, the risk of snow will become very remote in southeast Ohio....
I hope that you're right. As it is not foreseeable how I'll ever sell my house, even if I do eventually manage to relocate, I'll likely still have my property here, for the next 20+ years. And if the suburbs ever do expand southeast beyond Bellbrook, maybe a developer will make me a sweet deal on my land.... maybe.

As to the whole bit about weather, I don't mean to inject politically laden diatribe, but... whatever happens to global temperature averages and increases in sea-level, wealthy coastal communities - of the sort that I've been lauding in my posts - will figure out a way to cope. They will not diminish in cultural stature, even if they diminish in literal physical stature. Regarding specifically our local weather, perhaps I am blinded by contempt and personal vitriol, but I find the winters to be getting harsher - not milder. Nearly every year in recent memory, we have a "polar vortex", during which it is colder in Dayton than it is in Moscow or St. Petersburg (Russia) - places with whose cold I'm quite familiar. While the overall planet-wide trend may be more warmth, it is entirely possible that large swaths of the planet, such as the American Northeast and Midwest, may actually get colder.

Last edited by ohio_peasant; 09-28-2018 at 12:38 PM..
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Old 09-28-2018, 12:46 PM
 
Location: The Great State of Texas, Finally!
5,327 posts, read 10,693,069 times
Reputation: 2419
Quote:
Originally Posted by WRnative View Post
See temperature and humidity links for both Dayton, Houston, and Austin in the following web pages.

https://weatherspark.com/y/15863/Ave...tes-Year-Round

https://weatherspark.com/y/9247/Aver...tes-Year-Round

https://weatherspark.com/y/8004/Aver...tes-Year-Round

In the peak of summer, the weather is muggy or worse only 51 percent of the days in Dayton, compared to 98 percent in Houston and 89 percent in August, and the periods of bad humidity are much longer in these two Texas cities.

Both Texas cities also are much hotter. Especially check the "Average Hourly Temperature" for each city.

I doubt many persons would consider Dayton part of the heat belt, even though it would be uncomfortable for you and certainly me.
Indeed, WRnative, and thank you for that.

Not only are our summers more humid, they are longer in duration, lasting from about mid-May through October. We are still well into the 80s in October. That we're in the lower 80s the past few days is not normal, but it is a nice break.

Last summer I visited family during peak heat, in fact, during a record-setting weekend in Chicago. My family complained and sighed at how hot and humid it was. I just laughed. It was a breeze. Believe me, Midwest summers are nothing.

And I lived in the PacNW for about five years. Beautiful but no thanks. 9-10 months of stratus cloud cover and intermittent drizzle is the polar opposite of where I am now.
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Old 09-28-2018, 12:52 PM
 
Location: The Great State of Texas, Finally!
5,327 posts, read 10,693,069 times
Reputation: 2419
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
Here’s another variation on the theme: consider two post-docs in computer science, both at Stanford. One gets a tenure-track professorship at Cal State Northridge, and the other at Wright State. I intentionally picked a California school that’s not all that highly ranked, to give WSU the benefit of the doubt. Well, the Cal State guy earns maybe only $20K/year more than the WSU guy, so in terms of salary vs. COL, the WSU guy may temporarily be ahead… especially if we acknowledge that income taxes are higher in California. But once we factor home-equity into the calculation, it’s hard to see how the WSU guy remains ahead.

Dire and shrill melodrama about street-urchin kids, drug-addled neighborhoods and collapsing houses, shuttered factories with weed-infested padlocked parking lots, etc., miss the greater point. It isn’t abject and irredeemable poverty that hampers Dayton, or cities like Dayton. Sure, poverty is a problem, and a problem that shouldn’t be ignored. But for upper-middle-class people, there are neighborhoods even in the Dayton region (such as Oakwood or parts of Centerville) that are quite posh and insulated from the melodramatic bad news. For those same upper-middle-class people, the opportunities in America’s secondary-cities just aren’t as remunerative as those in the primary cities. If you’re a superstar attorney, you might pull $400/hour in Dayton, but the same skill-set might get you $1400/hour in NYC. Even if you’re just a mediocre attorney, and your spouse is just a mediocre electrical engineer, the two of you will gain in home-equity (among other advantages) a lot more in Northern Virginia or Pasadena (California) or Cambridge (Massachusetts), than you would in Oakwood. This is the shadow “cost of living” of places such as Dayton.

There was on the Retirement forum a testament by an elderly lady who relocated from somewhere in California, to Cleveland, to retire. She chose Cleveland because it offered a combination of desired amenities (such as healthcare and the Philharmonic) and low cost of living – in particular, low rent or low purchase-price of a condo. For her, the move was eminently sensible, as it allowed her to retire on a smaller budget, than the realities that she’d have been facing back in California. She is, if memory serves, single, without decedents, and on a small pension. When she dies, she dies… and that’s it. The house – if she buys one – might go to a charity. Whether or not that house happens to appreciate, is to her inconsequential.

Now let’s revisit our two post-doc friends at Stanford. After 30 years in academia, they both decide to retire. Both have tidy 401K plans, but don’t want to touch them in retirement, instead letting them grow. They both made full-professor in their respective universities, and enjoyed good – but unspectacular – careers. Neither managed to jump to a more prestigious university, or to launch a lucrative startup, or to earn royalties from a successful patent. Now both of them want to retire to coastal Florida. The one in Northridge sells his house, and uses the proceeds to buy a larger and more luxurious house in Florida – for cash. He has enough money left over, to buy a luxury car, and a boat, and to hire weekly help to clean the house and to mow the lawn. The one from Wright State also sells his house, but needs to take out a mortgage for even a modest place in Florida. He has to keep driving his old car, can’t afford the boat, and needs to do the cleaning and mowing himself. Tell me again: where is the cost of living lower?

Dayton can – and should! – fix the blight on East Third Street, and other such neighborhoods. Wise government would help; foolish or profligate government would not. But no government-wisdom would put the local real-estate market on the same growth trajectory as we saw for the past 30 years in LA, DC and the like.



I hope that you're right. As it is not foreseeable how I'll ever sell my house, even if I do eventually manage to relocate, I'll likely still have my property here, for the next 20+ years. And if the suburbs ever do expand southeast beyond Bellbrook, maybe a developer will make me a sweet deal on my land.... maybe.

As to the whole bit about weather, I don't mean to inject politically laden diatribe, but... whatever happens to global temperature averages and increases in sea-level, wealthy coastal communities - of the sort that I've been lauding in my posts - will figure out a way to cope. They will not diminish in cultural stature, even if they diminish in literal physical stature. Regarding specifically our local weather, perhaps I am blinded by contempt and personal vitriol, but I find the winters to be getting harsher - not milder. Nearly every year in recent memory, we have a "polar vortex", during which it is colder in Dayton than it is in Moscow or St. Petersburg (Russia) - places with whose cold I'm quite familiar. While the overall planet-wide trend may be more warmth, it is entirely possible that large swaths of the planet, such as the American Northeast and Midwest, may actually get colder.
Thank you Peasant!
Your posts are always well thought out and give me much to think about.
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Old 09-28-2018, 12:53 PM
 
Location: Dayton, OH
570 posts, read 232,160 times
Reputation: 2358
Quote:
Originally Posted by cobolt View Post
But for those who, for instance, move to further their career at Wright-Patt and then retire elsewhere, as others have pointed out, they're behind the housing purchase game, and at that point, either have to swallow the fiscal reality and pony up the purchase money or resolve to stay in the Dayton area, because leaving becomes cost prohibitive.
Yup.

Kinda like the Midwest's version of Hotel California - you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.
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Old 09-28-2018, 12:56 PM
 
6,481 posts, read 3,606,453 times
Reputation: 8755
Quote:
Originally Posted by cobolt View Post
And I lived in the PacNW for about five years. Beautiful but no thanks. 9-10 months of stratus cloud cover and intermittent drizzle is the polar opposite of where I am now.
Maybe further north. Here it's 8 months of clouds and 4 months of not a cloud in the sky. The problem is those 4 months of sun from my perspective.

And I'll take a light drizzle that you can still go out and hike in over the midwest severe thunderstorms any day.

And hurricanes too heh. Remember when the remnants of Ike came through and we had no power for more than a week.
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Old 09-28-2018, 03:11 PM
 
5,323 posts, read 6,749,666 times
Reputation: 2667
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
Here’s another variation on the theme: consider two post-docs in computer science, both at Stanford. One gets a tenure-track professorship at Cal State Northridge, and the other at Wright State. I intentionally picked a California school that’s not all that highly ranked, to give WSU the benefit of the doubt.
Stanford not highly ranked?
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