housing prices crashing in Delaware? (Wilmington, Bear: lender, real estate, foreclosure)

[Gdelemschl]

curious minds want to know ... from the peak in 2006 to a bottom, say, sometime in 2010 ... how much percentage-price-decline the house prices might suffer in the New Castle county towns of Delaware? I've heard that from 2002 to 2006 the prices had practically doubled in some towns like Bear, Glasgow etc. Now, they have given back how much % so far and how much more to go?

Will it be the case that a house that was only costing 200K in 2002, went up to 400K in 2006 and will be back to 225-215K again in 2010, almost finishing the round-trip?

fyi- the info presented at some sites points to an extremely gloomy picture e.g. have a read of this site: US Housing Crash Continues

[cuff822]

Latest issue of Money magazine has Wilmington listed specifically. Bottom predicted for this time next year with a 10% drop from current prices.

[elizamary]

Originally Posted by cuff822

Latest issue of Money magazine has Wilmington listed specifically. Bottom predicted for this time next year with a 10% drop from current prices.

If ou are selling a home today, you are darn lucky if you sell it. From what I heard, prices of homes have come down.

[rossc]

You can sell it, you just have to sell it for market price, which right now is lower than most people owe. Asking prices haven't come down much in Sussex Co. Whether they are selling is anyones guess. I would guess they are not.

[rdlr]

It's a given fact that the real estate market is not as fluid as it was during the big boom in real estate activity we've experienced within the last few years. Having said that, properties were over priced during that period, and now the market is stabilizing. Those exorbitant sale prices couldn't last forever; real estate runs in cycles. Having been in the business since 1982, I've seen a few cycles, dips in the market and rebounds. When I don't have to work 70 hour weeks anymore to keep up, I may start believing it's as bad as people say . I'm speaking for Delaware, only.

Here are actual current market statistics for all of Kent County, Delaware, between January 1, 2008 and May 18, 2008, as per Trend Multi List.

Units Listed for Sale 1,575
Listed Volume $424,000,585
Listed Average $269,206
Pending Sales (Under Contract) 549
Units Sold 424
Sold Volume $92,586,375
Sold Average $220,722
Average Days on Market 84
Average Original List Price $234,020
Average Sold Price $220,722
Percentage List/Sold - Homes are selling for 94% of List Price

The Sussex County Beach area is fairing better than this.
I also have New Castle County stats.

[cuff822]

Delly, Awesome info, thanks. Could you post the NCCo. numbers? I would also be interested in knowing the average days on the market for previous years if available. It seems to me, in Delaware specifically, that those that cannot sell opt to take their house of the market as opposed to lowering the price. Wondering if this will change over the next few years.

[rdlr]

Originally Posted by cuff822

Delly, Awesome info, thanks. Could you post the NCCo. numbers? I would also be interested in knowing the average days on the market for previous years if available. It seems to me, in Delaware specifically, that those that cannot sell opt to take their house of the market as opposed to lowering the price. Wondering if this will change over the next few years.

Glad it was helpful to you, cuff822!
Sure, I'll post statistics for NCC, and past DOM a little later today.....Have to leave now for appointments.

[rossc]

Originally Posted by Gdelemschl

Will it be the case that a house that was only costing 200K in 2002, went up to 400K in 2006 and will be back to 225-215K again in 2010, almost finishing the round-trip?

I'd say that's pretty close. Areas that saw sharp increases over the last few years because of a bubble will see about that much loss when the bubble bursts. Actually, the bubble has burst, but sellers will not or can not sell for market value right now because they owe far more than that. Unfortunately for those people, foreclosure is the only way out. What do you do when you can't make a house payment and your house is all of a sudden worth half what you owe?

[rossc]

Originally Posted by Delly

Having said that, properties were over priced during that period, and now the market is stabilizing. Those exorbitant sale prices couldn't last forever;

Prices are set by the market. There was a lot more money in the economy and in buyers pockets back 8 years ago and the real estate prices back then reflected that. Now the economy is declining, people don't have the money they did and they are not paying the the higher prices. With more and more jobs going overseas the problem is not going to get better.

To say real estate was over priced in 2002 is not really accurate. Those prices were what the buyer was willing to pay back then. We look back now and say they were over priced. They are over priced based on our current economy. We are now willing to pay less, so the market has to adjust for that.

The problem is worse in more desirable areas. People with lots of money came to the beach and spent HUGE money on real estate. That drove the prices up very quickly. Less attractive area, like middle TN, Rural NC, etc. never saw the bubble that some other area saw and thus, are not seeing the crash to the degree that the rest of the country is.

Just remember the golden rule...A product or service is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay for it. Not a penny more...or less.

[rdlr]

rossc... we could talk all day about the distinctions between price, market, cost and value. Price does not equal value, as much as cost does not equal value. Market value is an objective value and represents an amount purchasers agree to pay. The study of markets, supply and demand, Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations and other theories could be discussed at length, resulting in various opinions.....all interesting.

Regarding declining markets, each market, as you know is different, as well as within each price range, and location. Some markets have remained stable, I've found. I've also found that during the huge real estate boom, an artificial market was created (at least in Delaware) with lender qualifying guidelines relaxed, an abundance of monies available, 100% financing available for most, and exorbitant closing costs paid by developers on the buyer's behalf. It seemed every contract of sale on real estate resulted in a closed sale. .....shades of the S & L Crisis....

cuff822...Here are actual current market statistics for all of New Castle County, Delaware, between January 1, 2008 and May 18, 2008, as per Trend Multi List.

Units Listed for Sale 4,848
Listing Volume $1,361,990,333
Listed Average $280,938
Pending Sales (Under Contract) 2,053
Units Sold 1,663
Sold Volume $$436,850,875
Sold Average $282,688
Average Days on Market 74
Average Original List Price $279,822
Average Sold Price $262,688
Percentage List/Sold - Homes selling for 93.8%.