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Old 04-18-2014, 07:36 PM
 
8,317 posts, read 25,788,874 times
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Real Estate Bubble II.
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Old 04-18-2014, 07:39 PM
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
86,894 posts, read 102,330,852 times
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^^Every silver lining has its cloud.
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Old 04-18-2014, 08:20 PM
 
Location: Washington Park, Denver
6,908 posts, read 6,503,917 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzlover View Post
Real Estate Bubble II.
The city of Denver did not experience Bubble I. Is this Bubble I?
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Old 04-18-2014, 10:31 PM
 
Location: Denver, CO - Capitol Hill
557 posts, read 665,695 times
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If prices are rising artificially, that's one thing. But that doesn't seem to be the case here. High demand and low inventory = rising prices/values.

Besides, the bubble happened because of poor/terrible loan underwriting and deregulation. Underwriting is stricter and much more risk averse now and regs in place look to protect that.
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Old 04-19-2014, 10:02 AM
 
Location: Denver, CO
1,627 posts, read 3,711,139 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JD401 View Post
If prices are rising artificially, that's one thing. But that doesn't seem to be the case here. High demand and low inventory = rising prices/values.

Besides, the bubble happened because of poor/terrible loan underwriting and deregulation. Underwriting is stricter and much more risk averse now and regs in place look to protect that.
I have to agree.

We've been outbid on multiple houses despite a solid loan, great credit and offering as much as 15% over asking. It IS out of control from a buyer's perspective, but I think supply and demand pretty much sum up the reason why. Low inventory, high demand to live in Denver. Houses that I find should be worth $170k or so are going for $210k+, and comps are creating a bit of a feedback loop. If you're a seller, there may not be a better time to put your house on the market...eventually someone's going to figure this out and construction starts will go through the roof.

On the other hand, there just isn't space in the immediate metro area to build those new homes...so they'll have to be on the fringe. That's not a good thing, and doesn't really mean people like my wife and I will have any better shot.

If this continues we may be priced out of the market in the next four to six months. The "invisible hand" has no conscience.
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Old 04-19-2014, 05:50 PM
 
5,090 posts, read 13,516,032 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zenkonami View Post
I have to agree.

We've been outbid on multiple houses despite a solid loan, great credit and offering as much as 15% over asking. It IS out of control from a buyer's perspective, but I think supply and demand pretty much sum up the reason why. Low inventory, high demand to live in Denver. Houses that I find should be worth $170k or so are going for $210k+, and comps are creating a bit of a feedback loop. If you're a seller, there may not be a better time to put your house on the market...eventually someone's going to figure this out and construction starts will go through the roof.

On the other hand, there just isn't space in the immediate metro area to build those new homes...so they'll have to be on the fringe. That's not a good thing, and doesn't really mean people like my wife and I will have any better shot.

If this continues we may be priced out of the market in the next four to six months. The "invisible hand" has no conscience.
I think there is space to build in the immediate metro area with infilled developments in already established areas. This is not yet that dense of an area.

The problem is that many buyers want pristine newer areas with all new homes around. They will not accept older homes and older stores just down the street, especially when the homes are of another era of a less price point.

Many want their all new separate sprawling development separate with winding streets that do not connect to other development They frown on being in a dense area. Is it wrong? no, that is what many buyers perceive when then think of a new home.

The developers are then forced to buy into far locations The land may be cheaper but sometimes more developmental cost for utilities. However, there are some infill housing being built and could provide good value as the land may be just as cheap and development cost less than far out areas.

Livecontent
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Old 04-19-2014, 07:21 PM
 
Location: Denver, CO - Capitol Hill
557 posts, read 665,695 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by livecontent View Post
I think there is space to build in the immediate metro area with infilled developments in already established areas. This is not yet that dense of an area.

The problem is that many buyers want pristine newer areas with all new homes around. They will not accept older homes and older stores just down the street, especially when the homes are of another era of a less price point.

Many want their all new separate sprawling development separate with winding streets that do not connect to other development They frown on being in a dense area. Is it wrong? no, that is what many buyers perceive when then think of a new home.

The developers are then forced to buy into far locations The land may be cheaper but sometimes more developmental cost for utilities. However, there are some infill housing being built and could provide good value as the land may be just as cheap and development cost less than far out areas.

Livecontent
Sounds like you're talking about two different things. Urban vs suburban. Why would anyone looking for suburbia move to Capitol Hill? Is Wash Park not incredibly dense with mostly if not all older homes? Maybe I'm missing something.

I don't know what "metro" encompasses here in resident's minds, but what you're describing would seem to only apply to the quasi outskirts of Denver city limits no? Cap Hill, Wash Park, Cherry Creek, and whatever other areas immediately surrounding and near downtown in Denver Denver do not have that kind of space that you're referring to. I'm guessing that's what the previous poster was getting at.

Plenty of people are looking for older homes with character.
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Old 04-19-2014, 11:56 PM
 
5,444 posts, read 4,817,472 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zenkonami View Post
I have to agree.

We've been outbid on multiple houses despite a solid loan, great credit and offering as much as 15% over asking. It IS out of control from a buyer's perspective, but I think supply and demand pretty much sum up the reason why. Low inventory, high demand to live in Denver. Houses that I find should be worth $170k or so are going for $210k+, and comps are creating a bit of a feedback loop. If you're a seller, there may not be a better time to put your house on the market...eventually someone's going to figure this out and construction starts will go through the roof.

On the other hand, there just isn't space in the immediate metro area to build those new homes...so they'll have to be on the fringe. That's not a good thing, and doesn't really mean people like my wife and I will have any better shot.

If this continues we may be priced out of the market in the next four to six months. The "invisible hand" has no conscience.

My wife and I just purchased and closed a few months ago. We noticed it was the price point. We were initially looking for houses in the low 200K range and these houses were getting multiple offers the day they went on the market. We upped the ante to more on the high 200K range and they tended to stay on the market a bit longer, not much longer though. We found our house, viewed it, put an offer on it the next day. We ended up getting it and were fortunate. We are happy with the price and extremely happy with the home. I've still be eyeballing what is for sale and I've seen significant price increases just within the two months of us closing. We ended up buying in the Meadows down in Castle Rock. If you look now, there are just under 10 houses for sale (according to realtor dot com) with a price point of 300K and under. The cheapest is still over 250K.

We will see what the market does over the spring/summer as more people put their houses up for sale.
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Old 04-20-2014, 09:07 AM
 
5,090 posts, read 13,516,032 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JD401 View Post
Sounds like you're talking about two different things. Urban vs suburban. Why would anyone looking for suburbia move to Capitol Hill? Is Wash Park not incredibly dense with mostly if not all older homes? Maybe I'm missing something.

I don't know what "metro" encompasses here in resident's minds, but what you're describing would seem to only apply to the quasi outskirts of Denver city limits no? Cap Hill, Wash Park, Cherry Creek, and whatever other areas immediately surrounding and near downtown in Denver Denver do not have that kind of space that you're referring to. I'm guessing that's what the previous poster was getting at.

Plenty of people are looking for older homes with character.
I am talking about areas in the suburbs of Denver which are in the older areas of these suburbs. They are very close to Downtown and have older home developments. There are open land parcels all in these areas that were and are farming and horse properties. They do occasionally sell and builders build a small development or a few homes or condos on these properties.

You can readily see these areas if you drive through the many side streets of Lakewood, Wheat Ridge and Arvada. Some of these areas are dense to the point of being considered urban and some are not so dense to be considered suburban. I am not using these terms as saying that if you are in the City of Denver--you must say urban and if you are in a suburbs--you must say suburban. I am referencing them as to a functional appearance of density.

If you want to see some small parcel of land in Lakewood and the City of Denver then take the new West Rail Line. It goes through the Lakewood Gulch which is an open space park and an old abandoned rail line in Lakewood, generally along west 13th. Look along this line beyond the open space and you will see parcels that I believe will soon be developed and be desirable as being near rail station. There are old homes along this area, horse properties and remnants of farms. Yes, the area is poor and yes there is some more associated crime in Denver but it will be gentrified.

You may not have realized that Wheat Ridge was once a major carnation growing area. You will see all these old and some abandoned green houses all over this area. There are still many small parcel of Land. I just passed a new development of townhomes being built at 38th and Depew. This is very close to the Denver city line.

You will see much open space in Arvada. For example go west on 52nd to Garrison. If you go in Arvada, on Oberon, you will see much open space lands, old farms and many infilled newer homes but still much land to be developed. These areas are not that far from Denver and surrounded by older homes that were build from the 1950s.

I live within 6 miles of Downtown in Arvada, in and around my area in Adams County and Jefferson County there are much open land. Go to Google Map and look at West 69th, West off Sheridan behind the Grace Church and what you will see is a large farm parcel. The land at 72nd and Sheridan has recently been developed in the last few years. It was an old farm that once was the dairy farm serving National Jewish. These areas are all very close to Downtown in my area of Arvada.

The point I am making is that if you move your desires from a large sprawling development on virgin land and only can find that in far out areas, then you can find homes build closer to the Denver core by buying into infilled housing.

Livecontent
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Old 04-20-2014, 09:49 AM
 
Location: Denver, CO - Capitol Hill
557 posts, read 665,695 times
Reputation: 513
Quote:
Originally Posted by livecontent View Post
I am talking about areas in the suburbs of Denver which are in the older areas of these suburbs. They are very close to Downtown and have older home developments. There are open land parcels all in these areas that were and are farming and horse properties. They do occasionally sell and builders build a small development or a few homes or condos on these properties.

You can readily see these areas if you drive through the many side streets of Lakewood, Wheat Ridge and Arvada. Some of these areas are dense to the point of being considered urban and some are not so dense to be considered suburban. I am not using these terms as saying that if you are in the City of Denver--you must say urban and if you are in a suburbs--you must say suburban. I am referencing them as to a functional appearance of density.

If you want to see some small parcel of land in Lakewood and the City of Denver then take the new West Rail Line. It goes through the Lakewood Gulch which is an open space park and an old abandoned rail line in Lakewood, generally along west 13th. Look along this line beyond the open space and you will see parcels that I believe will soon be developed and be desirable as being near rail station. There are old homes along this area, horse properties and remnants of farms. Yes, the area is poor and yes there is some more associated crime in Denver but it will be gentrified.

You may not have realized that Wheat Ridge was once a major carnation growing area. You will see all these old and some abandoned green houses all over this area. There are still many small parcel of Land. I just passed a new development of townhomes being built at 38th and Depew. This is very close to the Denver city line.

You will see much open space in Arvada. For example go west on 52nd to Garrison. If you go in Arvada, on Oberon, you will see much open space lands, old farms and many infilled newer homes but still much land to be developed. These areas are not that far from Denver and surrounded by older homes that were build from the 1950s.

I live within 6 miles of Downtown in Arvada, in and around my area in Adams County and Jefferson County there are much open land. Go to Google Map and look at West 69th, West off Sheridan behind the Grace Church and what you will see is a large farm parcel. The land at 72nd and Sheridan has recently been developed in the last few years. It was an old farm that once was the dairy farm serving National Jewish. These areas are all very close to Downtown in my area of Arvada.

The point I am making is that if you move your desires from a large sprawling development on virgin land and only can find that in far out areas, then you can find homes build closer to the Denver core by buying into infilled housing.

Livecontent
I hear what you're saying, and don't disagree, but still think you and the poster are talking about two different things. Wheat Ridge, Arvada, etc. wouldn't be considered part of the "immediate metro area" would they? When I hear that I'm thinking east of 25, south of 70. But that was the point. You're talking about going in to other municipalities, and that there is land available there. Not in the immediate metro area.
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