2015 Predictions (Denver, Arvada, Lamar: real estate, to rent, mortgages)

[VileTat]

With the insanely cheap oil prices, a potential tech bubble, interest rates set to rise, AirBnB crackdowns, and the Supreme Court possibly to ban legal weed... Could the Denver metro area possibly burst? It seems new builders are not to be trusted, especially if new legislation is passed to make them less liable for things like the bentonite soil disaster, yet demand is still high. How many houses along the Front Range depend on frakking exploits to pay their mortgages? Or will the ever-rising sea levels that will surely consume many coastal metro cities ensure Colorado real estate prices will keep an upward trend for the foreseeable future?

[denverian]

Yeah, we're all going to die. Alcohol will become illegal too.

[otterprods]

You forgot bearvalanches and elkanos.

[JohnnyDenver]

Originally Posted by VileTat

With the insanely cheap oil prices, a potential tech bubble, interest rates set to rise, AirBnB crackdowns, and the Supreme Court possibly to ban legal weed... Could the Denver metro area possibly burst? It seems new builders are not to be trusted, especially if new legislation is passed to make them less liable for things like the bentonite soil disaster, yet demand is still high. How many houses along the Front Range depend on frakking exploits to pay their mortgages? Or will the ever-rising sea levels that will surely consume many coastal metro cities ensure Colorado real estate prices will keep an upward trend for the foreseeable future?

Turn off the Rush Limbaugh . . . Chill out . . . head up to Breck for the weekend and inhale some nice mountain air.

[Count David]

Originally Posted by VileTat

With the insanely cheap oil prices, a potential tech bubble, interest rates set to rise, AirBnB crackdowns, and the Supreme Court possibly to ban legal weed... Could the Denver metro area possibly burst? It seems new builders are not to be trusted, especially if new legislation is passed to make them less liable for things like the bentonite soil disaster, yet demand is still high. How many houses along the Front Range depend on frakking exploits to pay their mortgages? Or will the ever-rising sea levels that will surely consume many coastal metro cities ensure Colorado real estate prices will keep an upward trend for the foreseeable future?

I predict that I'll buy even less cheap gas, not adapt the regular use of many new technologies, not re-finance, not pay to sleep in somebody else's house, and not purchase legal weed. Will update 1/1/16 if I remember.

Lol at some of your questions. What did all these people here do before fracking? Rising sea levels? Is that why Denver is popular right now?

[VileTat]

Very chill here, trust me ;-) Just musing over all of these things, thinking super long term... Sea level rises might not seem so serious now but it really is going to be a big deal in the next century. And with our advances in medical technology a lot more of us might be around to confront these far off issues than we might think today, no joke.

After recently hearing from multiple folks up in South Dakota that are having serious problems due to the oil glut, it made me wonder how many Front Range inhabitants rely on oil income to stay. Denver Post articles were saying about $70/barrel lets most companies barely break even but oil is down in the $40s so these companies are not going to be able to hold on long term it seems...

Really, just trying to decide if this spring is really a sane time to buy, or if it would make more sense to rent for a year or two and see if house prices decline, instead of potentially buying in at a high point only to be underwater a few years later. Not seriously worried about most of the things in my OP, but the tiny tiny bit I am concerned about those things is greatly amplified the more I think about getting into a long term mortgage.

[JohnnyDenver]

Originally Posted by VileTat

Very chill here, trust me ;-) Just musing over all of these things, thinking super long term... Sea level rises might not seem so serious now but it really is going to be a big deal in the next century. And with our advances in medical technology a lot more of us might be around to confront these far off issues than we might think today, no joke.

After recently hearing from multiple folks up in South Dakota that are having serious problems due to the oil glut, it made me wonder how many Front Range inhabitants rely on oil income to stay. Denver Post articles were saying about $70/barrel lets most companies barely break even but oil is down in the $40s so these companies are not going to be able to hold on long term it seems...

Really, just trying to decide if this spring is really a sane time to buy, or if it would make more sense to rent for a year or two and see if house prices decline, instead of potentially buying in at a high point only to be underwater a few years later. Not seriously worried about most of the things in my OP, but the tiny tiny bit I am concerned about those things is greatly amplified the more I think about getting into a long term mortgage.

I lived in West Arvada during the early 80's. Jackson Browne and Bonnie Raitt led a march down Hwy 93 to protest Rocky Flats. I never thought twice about health concerns. I'm still alive today.

[davebarnes]

Originally Posted by VileTat

Really, just trying to decide if this spring is really a sane time to buy, or if it would make more sense to rent for a year or two and see if house prices decline

If this looks like a bubble to you, then rent.
If this does not look like a bubble, then buy.

[denverian]

Originally Posted by David Aguilar

I predict that I'll buy even less cheap gas, not adapt the regular use of many new technologies, not re-finance, not pay to sleep in somebody else's house, and not purchase legal weed. Will update 1/1/16 if I remember.

Lol at some of your questions. What did all these people here do before fracking? Rising sea levels? Is that why Denver is popular right now?

The Gulf of Mexico is lapping at Lamar. Hadn't you heard?

[ShampooBanana]

Originally Posted by VileTat

Very chill here, trust me ;-) Just musing over all of these things, thinking super long term... Sea level rises might not seem so serious now but it really is going to be a big deal in the next century. And with our advances in medical technology a lot more of us might be around to confront these far off issues than we might think today, no joke.

After recently hearing from multiple folks up in South Dakota that are having serious problems due to the oil glut, it made me wonder how many Front Range inhabitants rely on oil income to stay. Denver Post articles were saying about $70/barrel lets most companies barely break even but oil is down in the $40s so these companies are not going to be able to hold on long term it seems...

Really, just trying to decide if this spring is really a sane time to buy, or if it would make more sense to rent for a year or two and see if house prices decline, instead of potentially buying in at a high point only to be underwater a few years later. Not seriously worried about most of the things in my OP, but the tiny tiny bit I am concerned about those things is greatly amplified the more I think about getting into a long term mortgage.

Since you asked about predictions for 2015 I'm not really sure what sea level change is going to have to do with anything. If it happens that fast I think it's safe to say we're ALL screwed.

Also, luckily the Denver metro is less dependent on energy than it was in the 80s during the last energy bust. Aside from fracking there are plenty of stable jobs to be had in wind and solar which aren't going away anytime soon. The tech and financial sectors have really taken off, and really more people have moved for the lifestyle (with only a very small percent because of legal weed) than anything else. A more mobile population wants to live where they can enjoy their ideal lifestyle, and Denver will always have a lot to offer in that regard unless the mountains decide to get up and walk away.