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Old 05-16-2015, 08:58 AM
 
Location: Houston
518 posts, read 467,813 times
Reputation: 885

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More housing news:

Prices

  • More than half of all homes in the San Francisco market are now selling for over $1 million.The region had the third-highest rate of price growth, at 17.7 percent year over year. The median sale price was $1,060,000 last month.
  • Denver had the highest price growth in the country. The median sale price surpassed $300,000 for the first time, rising 19.6 percent from a year ago to $314,900.
  • Median sale price prices in Baltimore ($230,000), Boston ($325,000) and Cleveland ($114,950) were flat compared with the previous year. The median sale price in Jacksonville ticked down 0.6 percent due to a 16.8 percent surge in new condo listings.


Competition

  • Denver was the fastest housing market on record in March. The average home in Denver was on the market only six days before going under contract. The mile-high city broke its own record, set in May 2014 when the average home sold in eight days.
  • There were less than two months of supply at the end of March in both Denver (1.8) and Oakland (1.9), while Seattle (2.2) pulled even with chronically supply-starved San Francisco for the first time. This was the lowest supply of homes for sale on record in Seattle.
  • Fresno has seen competition heat up substantially. Last March, only 0.9 percent of listings sold above asking price. This year it was 16.9 percent, the second-highest increase in the country, behind Denver (which increased 18.7% to 44.9%).
https://www.redfin.com/research/repo...l#.VVdVP5MYF2B
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Old 05-24-2015, 05:42 PM
 
4 posts, read 3,407 times
Reputation: 10
Default Housing in Denver - due to low inventory or demand?

I own a house in Highlands Ranch (Douglas County) - close to Middle/High school and Rec Center and consider selling - I know now is a good time but at the same time like to hold until June 2017 when my kids are out of the house i.e finish high school.

If the current high price is driven by demand, then I feel comfortable as I plan to hold. The economy should continue to do well. Of course the interest rate would inch up a little but that may not dampen the sentiment that much IMHO.

But if it due to shortage of available home, and if construction is progressing big time, sooner or later too many homes will be available in the market and in that case, I should sell now and lock in the "profit".

What do you all think?
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Old 05-24-2015, 06:04 PM
 
Location: Reseda (heart of the SFV)
259 posts, read 183,408 times
Reputation: 359
Denver is currently in the midst of a major housing bubble, the question isn't if the housing bubble will burst but when. Los Angeles was booming in the 1980s mainly due to the aerospace industry and consequently home prices went parabolic. The aerospace industry shed tons of jobs in 90-91 which caused home prices in LA to fall off a cliff. If you bought a home in LA in 1989 and sold that home in 96-97 you were most likely selling that home at a loss, no joke. Prices didn't recover to there 1989 values until around 1998.

Home prices in Denver may go up another 10 or 20%, who knows, but when that bubble bursts it's going to be very ugly.
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Old 05-25-2015, 08:45 AM
 
Location: Denver area insider
10,174 posts, read 26,066,469 times
Reputation: 6249
1 if it not the right time to sell then don't. What is your exit strategy buy something else or move away?

2. As long as the economy is doing well, inventory is low (record setting low) and interest rates are low, there is no bubble.

3. We here experienced a growth cycle between 1994 and 2001. Then the market was flat and appreciation was near 2% per year until 2007 when the market fell. We did not pop a bubble then.

4. As long as days on market are under 75 days it will remain a Seller's market.
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Old 05-25-2015, 10:02 AM
 
2,156 posts, read 2,621,890 times
Reputation: 4038
My observational take, is that alot of the new builds are condos, apartments, town homes and duplexes with out a yard. There simply isn't enough infill room for homes. New homes are being built on scrape and build lots, the odd old country club, and sometimes acreage. Old industrial sites are generally getting the higher density stuff. As a result the single family homes in established neighborhoods (trees) with yards have the possibility to continue to have raised demand.

Will appreciation slow down? At some point it has to. At some point things have to plateau. However, as long as we have jobs I don't see a burst to a bubble. As long as there are jobs the house prices will be fine. [Edit: When I say house I mean single family house. I'm not sure the condo prices around downtown can sustain those prices as they age. They are cool and brand new now but in 10 yrs may be very dated.] I think it is more likely we go the way of Seattle or San Francisco than Detroit or the rust belt cities because we don't rely on a single industry. In addition the liberal, nature loving, health conscious population tends to attract educated people which could lead to new businesses taking off and becoming big the same way Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google did.

For those looking to buy I think the old advice still applies. If your planning to stay for >7 yrs you will probably be OK. If your staying for less, then you risk losing money on a dip or transaction costs. However I think it is important to calculate what your rent would have been over the same period of home ownership. People often lose site of the fact that even if they lose a little on their house sale they likely still saved over the cost of renting.

Example. Lets say you rent for $2000 per month. After a year you have spent $24,000 on rent. With a 6% transaction cost you could have bought a home for $400000. Sold it a year later for the exact same price you bought it for and come out even. But what about property tax you say? I think it is about $3k on that value of home. So you likely made up for it with the appreciation on the home and came out ahead. A simple example with loose number but you get the idea, if you bought the home you may have been living for free.
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Old 05-25-2015, 11:17 AM
 
225 posts, read 184,420 times
Reputation: 257
Quote:
Originally Posted by mic111 View Post
My observational take, is that alot of the new builds are condos, apartments, town homes and duplexes with out a yard. There simply isn't enough infill room for homes. New homes are being built on scrape and build lots, the odd old country club, and sometimes acreage. Old industrial sites are generally getting the higher density stuff. As a result the single family homes in established neighborhoods (trees) with yards have the possibility to continue to have raised demand.

Will appreciation slow down? At some point it has to. At some point things have to plateau. However, as long as we have jobs I don't see a burst to a bubble. As long as there are jobs the house prices will be fine. [Edit: When I say house I mean single family house. I'm not sure the condo prices around downtown can sustain those prices as they age. They are cool and brand new now but in 10 yrs may be very dated.] I think it is more likely we go the way of Seattle or San Francisco than Detroit or the rust belt cities because we don't rely on a single industry. In addition the liberal, nature loving, health conscious population tends to attract educated people which could lead to new businesses taking off and becoming big the same way Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google did.

For those looking to buy I think the old advice still applies. If your planning to stay for >7 yrs you will probably be OK. If your staying for less, then you risk losing money on a dip or transaction costs. However I think it is important to calculate what your rent would have been over the same period of home ownership. People often lose site of the fact that even if they lose a little on their house sale they likely still saved over the cost of renting.

Example. Lets say you rent for $2000 per month. After a year you have spent $24,000 on rent. With a 6% transaction cost you could have bought a home for $400000. Sold it a year later for the exact same price you bought it for and come out even. But what about property tax you say? I think it is about $3k on that value of home. So you likely made up for it with the appreciation on the home and came out ahead. A simple example with loose number but you get the idea, if you bought the home you may have been living for free.
There are no new condos in Denver. The last condo project built was The Four Seasons, which was obviously very high end. Before that it was Spire in 2008. I do think the downtown market could easily absorb at least 2,500-3,000 units priced in the $300-400 sq/ft but those aren't being built, due to construction-defect issues among other things.
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Old 05-25-2015, 04:17 PM
Status: "Dreaming of surf." (set 10 days ago)
 
Location: Colorado
5,439 posts, read 4,467,321 times
Reputation: 4972
Quote:
Originally Posted by ts62860 View Post
I own a house in Highlands Ranch (Douglas County) - close to Middle/High school and Rec Center and consider selling - I know now is a good time but at the same time like to hold until June 2017 when my kids are out of the house i.e finish high school.

If the current high price is driven by demand, then I feel comfortable as I plan to hold. The economy should continue to do well. Of course the interest rate would inch up a little but that may not dampen the sentiment that much IMHO.

But if it due to shortage of available home, and if construction is progressing big time, sooner or later too many homes will be available in the market and in that case, I should sell now and lock in the "profit".

What do you all think?
Instead of selling we are refinancing to take cash out. This is something I was against because I thought we might upgrade sooner than later but we decided we will be where we are currently for awhile. My wife's student loans will be a thing of the past thanks to the refi and low interest rate with a 15 year term. In about three weeks we will only have a mortgage to pay. I am in Highlands Ranch too.

Two houses on the street over from ours are both now under contract. They are directly across the street from each other. They went up for sale last week.
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Old 05-26-2015, 10:10 AM
 
Location: Denver, CO - Capitol Hill
561 posts, read 551,781 times
Reputation: 513
Quote:
Originally Posted by ts62860 View Post
I own a house in Highlands Ranch (Douglas County) - close to Middle/High school and Rec Center and consider selling - I know now is a good time but at the same time like to hold until June 2017 when my kids are out of the house i.e finish high school.

If the current high price is driven by demand, then I feel comfortable as I plan to hold. The economy should continue to do well. Of course the interest rate would inch up a little but that may not dampen the sentiment that much IMHO.

But if it due to shortage of available home, and if construction is progressing big time, sooner or later too many homes will be available in the market and in that case, I should sell now and lock in the "profit".

What do you all think?
Both?

I would never specutively sell just to sell as a private homeowner.

Edit: Timmyy has the right idea if you want to take the equity out of your property if you plan on sticking around for a while.
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Old 05-26-2015, 10:15 AM
 
Location: Denver, CO - Capitol Hill
561 posts, read 551,781 times
Reputation: 513
Quote:
Originally Posted by DenverBound41 View Post
There are no new condos in Denver. The last condo project built was The Four Seasons, which was obviously very high end. Before that it was Spire in 2008. I do think the downtown market could easily absorb at least 2,500-3,000 units priced in the $300-400 sq/ft but those aren't being built, due to construction-defect issues among other things.
One Lincoln Park is another one that was built around that time. We heard not great things about it while looking a couple of years ago. Didn't something just get passed about construction defects? I seem to remember discussion about shortening the claim statute to 5 years. But I think you're right too - downtown would easily support 300-400. Cap Hill is getting the high end of that in some spots, and not just "luxury" units.
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Old 05-26-2015, 01:07 PM
 
Location: Denver, Colorado U.S.A.
14,179 posts, read 20,184,123 times
Reputation: 10428
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rico Valencia View Post
Denver is currently in the midst of a major housing bubble, the question isn't if the housing bubble will burst but when. Los Angeles was booming in the 1980s mainly due to the aerospace industry and consequently home prices went parabolic. The aerospace industry shed tons of jobs in 90-91 which caused home prices in LA to fall off a cliff. If you bought a home in LA in 1989 and sold that home in 96-97 you were most likely selling that home at a loss, no joke. Prices didn't recover to there 1989 values until around 1998.

Home prices in Denver may go up another 10 or 20%, who knows, but when that bubble bursts it's going to be very ugly.
When the bubble burst in LA and Denver around 2006, it wasn't nearly as bad in Denver as LA. All desirable markets are more prone to real estate bubbles. If you want a safe bet and cheaper housing, move to Kansas City or Wichita, OKC or Tulsa. But then you have to be willing to live in a boring, conservative city surrounded by geographic monotony.
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