Areas that will hold/increase in value (foreclosures, condo)

[CayBren]

Castle Rock is starting construction this year on a new Centura Hospital close to the Meadows which should bring 400 to 600 new jobs by 2010. The commute to DTC via I-25 makes it more desirable and has many new road and bridge projects starting this year. The Real Estate Market is slow everywhere but I would look at future growth for a long term residence/investment.

I believe 2bindenver is correct. It is a great time to buy Real Estate as long as you plan to stay put and ride out the storm. Historically homes in good or growing neighborhoods double in value every 10 years. There have been many Real Estate slumps through history but it always recovers.

[Biopace]

Originally Posted by Bear4me

Castle Rock, Parker, Brighton, Elizabeth, Bennett - Which area(s) would be most likely to increase/hold value for a real estate investment? (house/land) Please feel free to add areas and expand..thanks

None of the above. IMO, if you want to increase/hold value over the next 1-2 years, you will need to get closer to Central Denver neighborhoods where there is not a huge oversupply of homes on the market (especially REO's and short sells) - I.E. Highlands, Hilltop, Wash Park, Observatory Park/U Hills, etc. On the outskirts of Denver County, Southmoor Park may be a good bet as it is on the light rail, has a great elementary school, and many homes have 1/4-1/3+ acre lots which is pretty rare in Denver.

If you do buy in Castle Rock, Parker, etc. you could do well several years down the road if you can pick up one of the REO's or pre-foreclosures at a huge discount.

[formercalifornian]

Good grief, 2B! The OP asked for opinions, and I gave him mine. He can decide for himself whether or not my opinion is valid. No need to go on the attack.

I surmised from the OP that he is buying property to invest rather than as a primary residence. If I was wrong, I hope he'll correct me. Furthermore, he does not appear to be interested in the appreciating areas of Denver proper.

And, BTW, I recently received a 5.29% return on a 9-month jumbo CD, which more than paid my year's rent on a very nice, practically new, 4-bedroom suburban house in a good school district. Meanwhile, prices on my street have dropped approximately 12%. As such, I consider the CD the "safer" and lower-maintenance way to have invested my money.

Based on my observation of the market, I do not believe that it is a good time to invest in real estate, so I shared my opinion accordingly. Obviously, you think differently. We're just going to have to agree to disagree.

[2bindenver]

where is the attack? I wasn't talking about *you.* I asked you to back up your opinion. Good grief indeed. There are no guarantees about the future. The past is not a decent predictor of the future, never has and never will be, period.

Yes, the only true good market predictor is looking at the past - in your case may have made the best decision. But only hindsight proved that to be correct in your case. And who the heck looks at one year, and decides that was a good decision? Real estate is a long term investment, not comparable to a 9 month CD.

But if you had bought, would you have bought in that same neighborhood? Would you have paid 5, 6, 7, 10% less? Who knows.

[formercalifornian]

Originally Posted by 2bindenver

Real estate is a long term investment, not comparable to a 9 month CD.

Can't argue with you there, 2B. They are two very different animals. Real estate as an investment vehicle has limited liquidity and significant carrying costs. CDs are fully-liquid at maturation, have a guaranteed return, and require no maintenance at all. Furthermore, they can be rolled into future investments with minimal, if any, additional transaction costs. The same cannot be said for real estate.

Once again, I reiterate, the OP does not appear to be interested in purchasing a primary residence, rather he implied that he is looking to invest, but I could be wrong. So, with that in mind, here are some questions for him:

* What kind of property are you seeking to purchase? Land? Commercial? Multi-family? Single-family?
* Will you be financing the purchase?
* Will the property be occupied? By whom?
* If the property will be a rental or commercial building, will it be cash-flow positive from day one?
* How long do you plan to hold the property?
* Are you committed to the area for the length of ownership?

Without answers to these questions (and perhaps many more), it's difficult to provide relevant opinions.

[formercalifornian]

Originally Posted by CayBren

It is a great time to buy Real Estate as long as you plan to stay put and ride out the storm. Historically homes in good or growing neighborhoods double in value every 10 years. There have been many Real Estate slumps through history but it always recovers.

I saw the chart in Business Week, too, and the trend makes a good headline, but it's a very simplistic way of viewing real estate performance. It fails to take into account the very real issues of carrying & transaction costs, inflationary pressures, and the value of the dollar. Other economists make a very good argument that real estate appreciation keeps up with inflation and that's about it.

I'm not opposed to investing in real estate, but I think anyone who considers it an easy way to make lots of money is naive. It's a very effort-intensive way to make money, and it is not risk-free, especially given our current economy. Furthermore, I'm concerned that the OP's request for input from a public bulletin board where anyone with a keyboard can express an opinion indicates that he may not have the experience/expertise to make a good purchase.

Some of the strongest neighborhoods as far as appreciating in 2007:

Jefferson Park +22% (45 sales, 22% foreclosures or short sales)
University Park +18% (90 sales, 8% foreclosures or short sales)
Hilltop +15% (151 sales, 9% foreclosures or short sales) Avg price $938,000.

From my perspective, buying in a neighborhood seeing 22% YOY is extremely risky. That kind of appreciation is unsustainable over time, and it is the reason I sold my last two houses. For investment purposes, it's a time when you should be selling property to capture those gains, not purchasing.

[Bear4me]

Thanks for the input - perhaps I should have been clearer - the investment is a primary residence - looking for the right area for new construction, affluency, central location - to hold for at least 5 years. Thanks

[formercalifornian]

Okay, now we're talking, but you still haven't given us much to go on.

You mentioned wanting a central location. Central to what? What are your other needs/desires (i.e., good schools, access to medical care, exciting nightlife, room for horses, etc.)? What is your budget? What did you mean when you used the word "affluency?" Which builders are you considering and why? Anything else you'd like to share?

[Bear4me]

Central meaning 40-45 minutes from DIA - hospital - and lots larger than 1/2 acre. Thanks

[dj32]

i"D agree with the above about the neighborhoods close to light rail and central Denver. Things are flat and improving here, depending on the neighborhood. For your criteria, I think parker would be best bet in terms of holding value/appreciation.